Podcast script: Top 5 expectations from Budget 2020; L&T, UltraTech top stocks to buy.
Given the recent slowdown in the economy, there are expectations that the budget would contain bold measures to boost the economy, Jyoti Roy, DVP Equity Strategist, Angel Broking Ltd said in a podcast with Moneycontrol.
Tight fiscal and monetary policy over the past few years coupled with major structural changes have taken a toll on growth which was further exacerbated post the IL&FS crisis and its fallout.
Given the shortfall in tax collections as well as lower non-tax revenues (on account of shortfall in disinvestment targets), markets are concerned about fiscal slippage in FY20 and FY21.
While the corporate tax cuts were a game-changer move by the Government and would go a long way in attracting investments over the medium term we believe that more needs to be done in order to boost consumption demand which has slowed down sharply from 10.6 percent in Q4FY18 to 5.1 percent in Q2FY20.
Given the severity of the slowdown, we feel that expansionary fiscal and monetary policy is the need of the hour to revive the economy.
Here are five expectations from Budget 2020:
1) Personal income tax:
The Government can try and address the slump in consumer spending by providing tax breaks to the middle class which could be either by the way of restructuring the tax slabs or by increasing the limit of the deductions under Sec 80 C.
The Government is expected to continue its focus on affordable housing and we could see greater allocation under the Pradhan Mantri Aawas Yojna along with a focus on execution.
The Government could also increase the tax exemption limit on housing loan interest from current levels of Rs 2 lakh. The Government could also look at expanding the scope of affordable housing by increasing the carpet area as well as the ticket size.
The government is expected to announce measures to shore up the auto industry which was impacted by the credit crisis and implementation of BS6 norms from April 2020.
There is a very high probability that the Government will announce an incentive-based scrappage plan in the budget which will benefit the sector, especially the MHCV space, which has been the worst impacted.
4) Make in India:
In line with the recommendations made by the commerce ministry, the Government can hike import duties on various items like paper, footwear, rubber items, and toys as well as address the issues of inverted duty structure in a certain sector like chemicals, furniture, rubber paper, etc.
5) Abolition of LTCG on equities and DDT:
There are expectations that the Government may abolish LTCG on equities while the definition of the long term can also be changed from one to two years. There are also expectations that the Government might do away with the Dividend Distribution Tax DDT on equity given that the Government wants to attract investments.