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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 30, 2019
For Private Circulation Only
Nifty clocks record highs, enters uncharted territory
Sensex (40794) / Nifty (12056)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
In the penultimate week, we saw some indecision in the market around 12000 which eventually resulted into a decline towards 11900.
However, on Monday, the week kick started on an optimistic note and marked a fantastic intraday rally to reclaim 12000 with some
authority. Clearly the opening day had set the tone for the rest of the week. In-line with this, the rally extended as the week progressed and
finally on Thursday, the Nifty surpassed its previous record highs to mark a new number of 12158.80. However on Friday, the Asian bourses
once again looked a bit nervous and as a rub off effect of the same, we witnessed some profit booking to conclude the week tad above the
12050 mark.
We have been quite vocal since last few weeks that it’s a matter of time we would see Nifty clocking fresh record highs and finally it’s a
reality now. In fact, despite the penultimate week’s tail end decline, we remained firm and advised using this as a buying opportunity. The
strategy played out well and in spite of slightly weak day on Friday, we continue with our positive stance on the market. The benchmark
index has registered a highest ever weekly as well as Monthly close and the way charts are shaped up, we expect continuation of the
northward trajectory. For the coming week, our projected targets are around 12200 – 12290 and if we stretch a time period a bit, we will
not be surprised to see index heading towards 12400 – 12500, which coincides with key Fibonacci ratios. On the lower side, 12000 followed
by 11883 are now likely to provide good support for the market.
Traders are advised not to remain sceptical as the recent rally has been vertical in nature and looks a bit overbought. In such a strong trend,
market generally tends to give gravity defying moves and hence, one should refrain from taking contradictory bets with a positional view.
Rather use declines to go long and keep focusing on potential stocks which are likely to participate in the probable rally.
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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 30, 2019
For Private Circulation Only
FIIs ‘Long Short Ratio’ surged to 61%
Nifty spot closed at 12056.05 this week, against a close of 11914.40 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.31 to 1.54.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 4.91%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has decreased by 6.44%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 43.80 points against a premium of 89.25 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 84.50 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, the build-up was scattered between 12100-12600 call and 11500-12100
put options. Maximum open interest for the monthly series now stands at 12500 call and 12000 put option.
During the week, we saw index surpassing the hurdle of 12050 and then follow-up buying led index hitting fresh record high. On
Friday, due to some profit booking index concluded the week tad above 12050 with a gain of 1.56%. During the early part of the
November series, we witnessed mixed activity without any major open interest addition in either direction. However, the rally seen
during the expiry week was supported with good amount of longs. If we look at the rollover figures, 79.64% of the positions in Nifty
have been rolled to the December series which is slightly higher than the average of 78.94%, indicating long rollovers. Stronger
hands preferred covering shorts and rolled over longs in the coming series. As a result, the index futures ‘Long Short Ratio’ has
surged from 43% to 61% after a quite some time. Analyzing the above data, we remain optimistic for the December series and
expect this up move to continue towards 12400-12500.
Long Forma
tion
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg (%)
ADANIPORTS 34180000 52.37 384.25 3.29
ICICIBANK 112066625 41.18 513.80 3.33
ICICIPRULI 10057500 21.71 504.00 1.18
YESBANK 230738200 16.85 67.15 3.71
PVR 1361200 11.43 1820.85 1.67
Weekly change in OI
Short
Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
LT 15878625 13.31 1336.80 (2.95)
ONGC 28250900 10.35 131.65 (1.64)
M&M 23877000 6.42 532.25 (2.53)
CUMMINSIND 1856400 4.03 543.10 (4.28)
WIPRO 26380800 2.30 238.85 (1.65)
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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 30, 2019
For Private Circulation Only
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Technical Analyst ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelbroking.com