Technical and Derivatives Review | November 30, 2018
Nifty inching towards 11000, banking became the charioteer
Sensex (36194) / Nifty (10877)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
This has been a spectacular week for our markets as it brought back wide smile on traders’ / investors’ faces. And there couldn’t
have been better end to the November series (derivatives) expiry as we saw Nifty surpassing its resistance zone with some authority
and thereby removing ambiguity about the near term direction. Despite subdued movement on Friday, index concluded the week
well above the 10800 mark by adding more than 3% from previous week’s close.
During the early part of the week, we saw Nifty finding strong support at 10500 and then went on to give v-shaped recovery
thereafter. Recently, traders were extremely skeptical about Nifty crossing this ceiling of 10750 - 10800. On Thursday, a massive
bump at the opening resulted in breaking this multiple resistance zone quite convincingly; courtesy to gigantic overnight rally in US
bourses. Then further developments in some of the heavyweight pockets ensured this breakout on a closing basis. Going by the ‘Gap
Theory’, a breach of any major resistance with an upside gap is known as a ‘Breakaway Gap’ and is considered as a sign of strength.
Hence, going ahead, we continue to remain upbeat and expect the rally to extend immediately towards 11000 - 11150 levels. On
the flipside, Thursday’s gap area of 10782 - 10757 is likely to act as a key support zone now.
It is also important to take a note that there are many events lined up in the first half of December on the domestic as well as
international front. Hence, we may see some volatility increasing in coming days. Traders are advised to trade with proper exit
strategy and should keep focusing on individual pockets that may provide better trading opportunities. This week, banking clearly
became the charioteer along with IT sector showing some buying interest after recent underperformance. In addition, some
interesting moves seen in the ‘Pharmaceutical’ basket towards the fag end of the week.
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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 30, 2018
FIIs ‘Long Short Ratio’ jumped above 50%
Nifty spot closed at 10876.75 this week, against a close of 10526.75 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.46 to 1.70
and the annualized Cost of Carry is negative at 2.97%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 22.04%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 23.90 points against a premium of 36.00 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 70.50 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, some build-up was seen in 10900 and 10100 call options. On the flip
side, 10700-10900 put options added good amount of open interest. Maximum open interest for December series now stands at
11000 call and 10000 put options.
Last week, the benchmark index surpassed the hurdle of 10700-10750 and extended its upmove towards 10900 mark. During
November series, we saw blend of short covering and fresh long formation in Nifty Futures. Stronger hand too participated in this rally as
they turned net buyers in equities, index and stock futures segment. Now, their index futures ‘Long Short Ratio’ has jumped from 29% to
51%, indicating they covered decent shorts and rolled their longs to December series. Rollover for Nifty stood at 71%, lower in terms of
percentage as well as open interest. At current juncture, around 11000-11100 is the immediate hurdle; whereas, 10700-10750 may act as a
support zone.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
ACC
1433200
13.85
1489.45
1.89
IOC
82479500
103.47
133.15
(3.72)
ESCORTS
5408700
13.69
708.00
6.77
REPCOHOME
1417000
95.34
370.85
(4.12)
STAR
3794800
11.12
487.20
8.47
OIL
8956365
85.17
181.85
(8.55)
CANFINHOME
4126800
6.82
270.60
4.26
ONGC
74133750
68.65
140.00
(8.05)
AXISBANK
36369600
6.43
628.30
2.12
NTPC
69668000
67.21
138.95
(4.99)
Weekly change in OI
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2
Technical and Derivatives Review | November 30, 2018
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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