September 30, 2017
Technical Picks | September 30, 2017
Short term tide turned lower
Sensex (31284) / Nifty (9789)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
The Nifty started the week with a continuation of the
corrective trend on Monday. Post a range bound session,
the selling pressure exaggerated as the index eventually
went on to breach the 9700 mark on the derivatives
expiry day. However, the index recovered some of the
losses at the end of the week and ended the week below
9800, registering a loss of 1.76 percent over its previous
week's close.
Key Moving Averages:
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at 31411 / 9773 and 28865 /
8907 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at 31830 / 9934 and 31296 /
Source: Company, Angel Research
9737 levels, respectively.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
Future outlook
Last Friday was probably a beginning of some pain the
market and this is what we witnessed in three subsequent
sessions. The relentless fall kept on breaking hopes for
the bulls as most of the intermediate supports got violated
in this course of action. Now, there is last ray of hope for
the short term buyers as recent swing low of 9685.55
remains intact.
We started anticipating such kind of development couple
of months back; but, strong momentum kept pushing
market higher and posted new record high of 10178.95.
But, stubbornly, we continued with our cautious stance
and avoided participating in the index in the recent rally
towards record highs. This week’s correction justifies our
stance to a certain extent. Now, the bigger question
Source: Company, Angel Research
would be whether the short term correction is over or still
This week, somehow bulls managed to defend 9685; but,
there is some pain left in the market. According to us, this
going ahead, we do not expect the same kind of strength
time it would be very difficult for our markets to maintain
to be infused in the market. You would have in between
this optimism in the near term. Yes, larger degree Bull
rebounds; but, one needs to understand that the short
Run is certainly not over; but, market needed some kind
term tide has turned and any relief rally in coming days is
of breather and we are most probably would experience
it in weeks to come. Technically speaking, the weekly
likely to get sold into. Going ahead, 9854 - 9921 would
chart looks distorted and the way ‘RSI-Smoothened’ is
be seen as a sturdy wall for the index. On the flipside, we
shaped up, is not an encouraging sign for our market.
may see index sliding below 9685 to test lower levels of
9640 - 9560 in days to come. Traders are advised to
stay light and not to get carried away by such bounce
backs.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | September 30, 2017
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
30,526
30,905
31,461
31,840
32,395
NIFTY
9,539
9,664
9,812
9,937
10,085
NIFTY BANK
21,923
22,988
24,676
25,741
27,429
ADANIPORTS
343
360
381
397
418
AMBUJACEM
253
260
267
274
281
ASIANPAINT
1,066
1,099
1,156
1,189
1,247
AUROPHARMA
632
662
695
725
758
AXISBANK
475
492
505
522
535
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,950
3,030
3,084
3,164
3,218
BAJFINANCE
1,708
1,773
1,824
1,889
1,940
BPCL
428
450
471
493
514
BHARTIARTL
369
379
388
398
407
INFRATEL
357
378
395
415
433
BOSCHLTD
19,515
20,030
20,965
21,480
22,415
CIPLA
550
568
581
599
613
COALINDIA
242
257
265
279
287
DRREDDY
2,156
2,242
2,359
2,445
2,561
EICHERMOT
29,184
30,199
30,925
31,940
32,666
GAIL
370
394
412
436
454
HCLTECH
849
862
874
887
900
HDFCBANK
1,738
1,772
1,797
1,831
1,856
HDFC
1,679
1,711
1,744
1,776
1,809
HEROMOTOCO
3,607
3,691
3,758
3,842
3,909
HINDALCO
216
228
236
248
255
HINDPETRO
378
402
421
445
464
HINDUNILVR
1,109
1,142
1,201
1,234
1,293
IBULHSGFIN
1,106
1,156
1,206
1,256
1,306
ICICIBANK
261
269
277
285
292
IOC
361
381
394
414
428
INDUSINDBK
1,607
1,644
1,679
1,717
1,752
INFY
880
890
899
909
918
ITC
249
254
262
266
274
KOTAKBANK
944
973
997
1,027
1,051
LT
1,093
1,118
1,152
1,177
1,211
LUPIN
969
992
1,005
1,027
1,040
M&M
1,189
1,222
1,257
1,290
1,325
MARUTI
7,468
7,723
7,906
8,161
8,344
NTPC
163
165
167
169
170
ONGC
155
163
169
177
182
POWERGRID
201
206
210
215
219
RELIANCE
747
764
796
813
845
SBIN
243
248
255
261
267
SUNPHARMA
477
490
503
516
528
TCS
2,351
2,394
2,464
2,506
2,576
TATAMOTORS
387
394
405
412
423
TATASTEEL
608
630
645
667
682
TECHM
433
445
454
466
475
ULTRACEMCO
3,650
3,752
3,876
3,978
4,101
UPL
726
752
781
807
836
VEDANTA
288
301
310
323
332
WIPRO
269
275
285
290
300
YESBANK
334
342
353
362
373
ZEEL
510
515
522
527
535
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | September 30, 2017
Rollovers not in favors of optimistic traders
Nifty spot closed at 9788.60 this week, against a close of 9964.40 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased to 1.20 from 1.24
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 1.65%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 8.56%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 11.95
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 57.30 points to its spot. Next
INDIGO
3276000
62.40
1105.80
(6.34)
month future is trading with a premium of 47.95 points.
AJANTPHARM
1017200
38.21
1210.75
(0.62)
PCR-OI has plunged from 1.24 to 1.20 on W-o-W basis. In
RELCAPITAL
10483500
36.18
663.40
(10.74)
call option, 9800-10100 strikes added good amount of
positions. On the flip side, build-up was scattered in the range
KAJARIACER
976800
33.59
722.60
1.42
of 9300-9800 put options. While, maximum concentration for
NATIONALUM
24416000
33.57
76.15
(5.29)
current series stood at 10000 call and 9700 put options.
HEROMOTOCO
1799000
32.81
3791.95
(2.80)
Stocks that added longs last week are IBREALEST, INFRATEL,
STAR
2265000
31.04
950.15
(4.04)
BAJAJ-AUTO and JSWENERGY. While, fresh shorts were
visible in SIEMENS, ACC, AUROPHARMA, DHFL and
SOUTHBANK
142804569
30.26
29.35
(0.17)
KOTAKBANK. Liquid counters with higher CoC are
JPASSOCIAT, INFIBEAM, IRB, TATAMTRDVR and NIITTECH.
Stocks with negative CoC are OIL, CONCOR, HDFCBANK,
Weekly OI losers
GAIL and TCS.
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
The benchmark index posted a new high in the mid of
JUSTDIAL
3844800
(22.98)
386.30
0.12
September series; but, this was followed by massive selling
which again pulled Nifty towards recent lows. We saw huge
ZEEL
5307900
(22.02)
523.10
(2.11)
open interest addition during the series, wherein majority of
DIVISLAB
7619200
(21.95)
972.60
11.65
the positions were on short side. Rollover in Nifty is at
KOTAKBANK
7938400
(18.77)
1025.20
1.63
69.87%, higher than its three month average of 65.41%,
suggesting short rollovers. Thus, we believe market may
ADANIPORTS
7120000
(18.44)
400.80
(1.21)
remain under pressure; hence, traders are recommended
CAPF
3553600
(17.83)
778.30
(3.33)
to form shorts at any bounce back towards 9900-9950
NIITTECH
1230000
(16.41)
519.35
3.48
CADILAHC
3516800
(15.98)
489.15
1.29
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited,
Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL
and Portfolio Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is a
registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number
INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing
/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public
offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evaluate the
contrary view, if any.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot
testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document.
While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be
regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from
or in connection with the use of this information.
For Private Circulation Only
4