Technical and Derivatives Review | December 29, 2017
2017 belongs to mighty bulls - 10426 becomes a key support
Sensex (34057 ) / Nifty (10531)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
The concluding week of the year traded with a positive bias and eventually wrapped up the activity almost at record close. This has
been a remarkable year for Indian markets; in fact, we should put it as, for the equity markets across the globe. The Nifty clocked
whopping gains of ~29% in the calendar year 2017 and probably we can count on the fingers of our one hand such spectacular years
in the history of Indian markets.
Undoubtedly, the year belongs to mighty bulls as we saw massive wealth creation right from the word go. There were couple of
hiccups during the year; but they eventually turned out to be whipsaws as the index kept on enjoying its Bull Run to eventually
conclude the year at record highs. Now, whatever has happened in 2017 is a history, the question lies what’s next and is the same
run going to continue in the New Year?
If we look at it from a longer perspective then there is no second thought about the continuation of this Bull Run towards 11000 and
beyond. But, we do not expect the journey to be as smooth as it has been throughout this year. In between we are likely to see
decent pauses and hence, one needs to be prepared for it; because timing such halts has become a nightmare. Any decent declines
during the year remain to be a good buying opportunity for investors having longer term horizon. On the other hand, short term
traders need to be very agile and selective while picking their trades. For the coming week, 10552 - 10600 would be seen as next
junctions, where we can see traders taking some money off the table. On the downside, 10460 - 10426 are the levels to watch out
for.
For Private Circulation Only
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Technical and Derivatives Review | December 29, 2017
Stronger hands exited most of their shorts
Nifty spot closed at 10530.70 this week, against a close of 10493 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased to 1.62 from 1. 59 levels
and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 3.36%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 6.83%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 26.20 points against a premium of 52.00 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 46.70 points.
PCR-OI has surged from 1.59 to 1.62 on week on week basis. In call options, build-up was scattered between 10500-10800 and
11000 strikes. On the flip side, significant amount of open interest addition was seen in 10200-10500 put options along with some
build-up in 10000 and 10100 strikes. For December series, maximum open interest concentration is seen in 11000, followed by
10700 call and 10300 put option.
This calendar year has been the historical one for our market as the benchmark index rallied 28% and surpassed yet another
milestone of 10500 in the concluding series of the year. Last week, index extended its gains along with some reduction in open
interest which was mainly due to expiry. Rollover in Nifty is at 73.19% which is above its three month averages of 69.72%. In terms
of open interest as well, the rollovers are on the higher side; thus, suggesting long rollover. Once again, FIIs exited all of their short
positions formed in last series; as a result the index futures ‘Long Short Ratio’ has now surged back to 70%. At this point in time,
10350-10400 seems to be a strong support and thus, as long as index remains above these levels, traders should avoid forming any
bearish bets and focus on individual stocks to fetch higher returns.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Pric
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%
JPASSOCIAT
245956000
12.73
26.15
41.73
SYNDIBANK
28044000
22.05
80.65
(4.8
HDIL
49050000
41.66
66.00
13.60
CANFINHOME
5721250
11.58
475.05
(4.4
MANAPPURAM
40872000
1.01
124.15
5.93
BANKBARODA
61124000
19.13
161.85
(3.9
GSFC
21303000
3.07
157.15
4.45
MCX
3841000
22.81
918.80
(3.2
JSWENERGY
59092000
4.23
93.10
4.20
HCC
53475000
37.55
41.30
(2.4
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
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Technical and Derivatives Review | December 29, 2017
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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