Technical Picks | October 29, 2016
Nifty stuck in a tight range of 250 points
Sensex (27942) / Nifty (8638)
A decent recovery in the penultimate week was followed by a
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
flat opening in our market as indicated by the SGX Nifty.
Subsequently, the Nifty remained in a narrow range for first
couple of trading sessions. On Wednesday, our markets
opened with a downside gap owing to negative global cues
and then remained under pressure for major part of the
session. Last two trading sessions saw some price action as
the index traded with slightly higher volatility. Eventually, a
modest recovery from lower levels led to a convincing close
above the 8600 mark. The week ended with a marginal cut
of 0.63% over its previous week’s close.
Key Moving Averages:
Source: Company, Angel Research
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
27738
/
8550 and
26464 / 8077 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
28050
/
8670 and
27694 / 8537 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
It has been yet another week of uncertainty for the market as
the tussle between both counterparties (the bulls and bears)
continued for the near term dominance. A decent correction
during the midst of the week has validated our view on
Source: Company, Angel Research
giving importance to the 8745 mark. However, on the other
hand, the bulls are not willing to give up as the 8500 has
As far as levels are concerned, a sustainable move below
been repeatedly acting a sheet anchor since last few days.
8500 would unfold lower levels of 8400 - 8287; whereas in
Thus, going by this price development, it can now be
case of an upside breakout, the cautious view will be
concluded that the index has stuck in a range of
negated above 8745 and in this scenario, Nifty may retest
8745 - 8500 and only a sustainable breakout on either side
8806 - 8893 levels in the near term. Since, the market is still
would dictate the near term trend for our market. At this
lacking clear direction, we would advise traders to stay light
juncture, we would continue with the cautious stance as long
as long as the Nifty remains within a range and wait for a
as 8745 is not violated convincingly. Most of the indicators
breakout to happen from the mentioned range in order to
are still hinting towards a possible downside.
take a direction call on the market.
We take this opportunity to wish you all a Happy Diwali and a Prosperous New Year!!!
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | October 29, 2016
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
27,364
27,653
27,955
28,244
28,546
NIFTY
8,455
8,547
8,642
8,733
8,828
NIFTY BANK
18,906
19,231
19,577
19,902
20,248
ACC
1,458
1,486
1,536
1,564
1,614
ADANIPORTS
265
286
302
322
338
AMBUJACEM
235
238
244
247
253
ASIANPAINT
1,003
1,037
1,099
1,133
1,195
AUROPHARMA
782
797
814
830
847
AXISBANK
444
466
499
520
553
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,715
2,785
2,821
2,891
2,927
BANKBARODA
148
152
156
160
164
BHEL
133
136
139
142
146
BPCL
651
660
674
683
697
BHARTIARTL
291
305
315
329
339
INFRATEL
316
331
358
373
400
BOSCH
20,946
21,390
22,245
22,689
23,543
CIPLA
556
565
580
589
604
COALINDIA
307
316
322
330
336
DRREDDY
2,943
3,149
3,274
3,480
3,606
EICHERMOT
22,669
23,309
24,316
24,956
25,963
GAIL
416
425
438
447
460
GRASIM
934
950
968
985
1,003
HCLTECH
715
740
785
810
856
HDFCBANK
1,201
1,230
1,253
1,283
1,306
HDFC
1,294
1,343
1,368
1,417
1,442
HEROMOTOCO
3,217
3,281
3,365
3,430
3,514
HINDALCO
144
147
150
153
156
HINDUNILVR
800
819
837
855
873
ICICIBANK
265
271
281
287
298
IDEA
71
74
77
79
82
INDUSINDBK
1,145
1,173
1,198
1,226
1,251
INFY
961
979
1,011
1,029
1,061
ITC
229
236
240
247
252
KOTAKBANK
762
791
807
836
851
LT
1,423
1,452
1,486
1,515
1,549
LUPIN
1,432
1,463
1,504
1,535
1,576
M&M
1,263
1,289
1,316
1,342
1,369
MARUTI
5,548
5,711
5,830
5,993
6,112
NTPC
147
150
152
155
158
ONGC
269
278
288
297
307
POWERGRID
169
172
176
179
183
RELIANCE
1,027
1,041
1,057
1,072
1,088
SBIN
248
253
259
264
270
SUNPHARMA
723
733
746
756
769
TCS
2,330
2,365
2,400
2,434
2,469
TATAMTRDVR
313
331
348
366
382
TATAMOTORS
484
511
537
564
591
TATAPOWER
73
76
80
83
87
TATASTEEL
359
382
407
430
455
TECHM
399
418
431
449
462
ULTRACEMCO
3,825
3,902
3,967
4,044
4,109
WIPRO
433
447
469
483
505
YESBANK
1,195
1,233
1,281
1,319
1,366
ZEEL
490
505
515
530
540
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | October 29, 2016
November series begins with open interest being light
Nifty spot closed at 8638.00 this week, against a close of 8693.05 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.00 to 0.99
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 4.60%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 16.20%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 29.40
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 49.00 points to its spot. Next
ARVIND
7344000
21.59
417.00
18.77
month future is trading with a premium of 81.60 points.
FEDERALBNK
41525000
4.92
82.50
12.63
PCR-OI has decreased from 1.00 to 0.99 levels. Being start of
DRREDDY
1549200
(15.01)
3369.85
8.32
new series the overall build-up is scattered. 8600-9000 call
CADILAHC
2700800
12.16
424.55
8.12
and 8200-8600 put options were active last week and they
also added decent positions. Highest open interest in
ADANIPORTS
18392500
2.11
308.10
7.63
November series is placed at 9000 call and 8500 put options.
SINTEX
38204250
(1.74)
90.30
7.50
Stock that added longs last week are ARVIND, CADILAHC,
ICIL
773400
(15.48)
828.25
6.65
MARUTI, IDFCBANK and IBREALEST. While, fresh shorts were
NMDC
14400000
2.74
131.60
6.09
visible in ASIANPAINT, BIOCON, JSWENERGY, INFRATEL
and JUSTDIAL. Liquid counters with higher CoC are
TATAPOWER, AMBUJACEM, LUPIN, AUROPHARMA and
Weekly OI losers
ACC. Stocks with negative CoC are JUSTDIAL, ONGC,
OI
OI
Price
IBULHSGFIN, VEDL and EXIDEIND.
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
November series has begun with lower open interest, most of
TORNTPHARM
428000
6.57
1423.10
(10.25)
the long positions formed since June series have been
JUSTDIAL
4319200
7.29
407.90
(9.47)
lightened up. On Friday, despite Nifty close on a positive note
MINDTREE
3415200
(9.36)
438.10
(8.69)
we witness fresh short formation by FIIs in Index Futures along
with longs in put options. At current juncture, 8500 - 8550
JUBLFOOD
2187000
1.32
1005.85
(8.62)
seems to be an immediate support zone for Nifty. Looking at
TATAGLOBAL
31590000
(9.72)
140.50
(8.20)
the above data, we believe Nifty may breach these support
BIOCON
4680500
12.89
928.20
(8.06)
levels in the short run provided we see continuation of decent
amount of fresh short formation. Thus, traders are suggested
JSWENERGY
25904000
8.69
65.70
(7.66)
to avoid forming long position unless we see any relevant
WIPRO
7039200
(13.54)
463.65
(7.39)
change in derivatives data.
Weekly change in OI
30,000
Call
Put
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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