Technical and Derivatives Review | March 29, 2019
Stage is all set for record highs
Sensex (38673) / Nifty (11624)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
What a splendid month it was for our markets. Right from the word go, the mighty bulls were in complete control to reach at six months
high. In fact, we are now at kissing distance away from all-time highs. As far as this weeks’ price action is concerned, we started on a weak
note; courtesy to sell off across the globe. However, it was just a knee-jerk reaction as we saw index resuming uptrend on the subsequent
day. The optimism continued throughout the remaining part to conclude the last month of the financial year on a high note.
Clearly, the kind of broad based rally we witnessed during the month, it has brought back wider smile in traders’ as well as investors’
fraternity. No brainer, the key charioteer in this mesmerizing rally was the banking space, who escorted our benchmarks at such a
commanding position. How often do we see such gargantuan single month rally of over 7% and 13% in Nifty and Bank Nifty respectively.
Now, the stage is all set for our benchmark Nifty to catch up with banking index and clock fresh record highs. We will not be surprised to
see it happening in the inaugural week of new financial year. Thus, traders are repeatedly advised to remain on the positive side and do not
think of going against ongoing momentum. In such markets, do not hesitate, rather use dips to participate and ride the tide.
As far as levels are concerned, immediate resistance is seen around 11700 - 11760 but as we opined, it’s a matter time we would see index
hastening beyond this junctions. On the flipside, 11570 followed by 11450 are now likely to act as sheet anchor supports for the Nifty.
Further, the midcap index which has broken out from multi-month congestion zone recently, is gearing up to take off from heron. Hence,
do watch out potential candidates within this space, which may provide better trading as well as investment opportunities. We hope to
have a spectacular financial year going ahead.
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Technical and Derivatives Review | March 29, 2019
Long rollovers in April series
Nifty spot closed at 11623.90 this week, against a close of 11456.90 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.60 to 1.49.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 8.51%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has decreased by 28.65.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 56.00 points against a premium of 81.55 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 114.50 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, fresh build-up was seen in 11800-12000 call options. On the other side,
good amount of writing took place in 11200-11500 put options. Maximum open interest for April series now stands at 12000 call and
11500 put options.
The March series was not only a sigh of relief for the bulls, but also became the complete game changer for our markets after a long
consolidation of past three months. Since the beginning of March series, we witnessed good amount of long formation in the
benchmark index and these positions have been rolled over to the next series. Stronger hands continued their buying streak in
equities; they bought to the tune of Rs. 32,457 crores in March series. In F&O space, they formed bullish bets by adding longs in
index futures and index call options along with writing in index puts. Considering the above data points, we expect extension of
ongoing momentum in the coming series. Traders are advised to trade with a positive bias and use declines to initiate fresh longs as
we may soon head towards the record highs.
Long Formation
Short Formation
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Weekly change in OI
Technical and Derivatives Review | March 29, 2019
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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