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Technical and Derivatives Review |April 28, 2023
Nifty hastens beyond 18000 with some authority
Sensex (61112) / Nifty (18065)
Source: Tradingview.com
Future outlook
The penultimate week of April month was very lethargic for our markets. It was more of a breather after the relentless run up from
17000 to 17900 in the first half of the month. This week, we started the proceedings on an exciting note; courtesy to stellar Q4
numbers from banking giant, ICICI Bank. As the week progressed, the sentiments kept on improving and in the process, the Nifty
managed to surpass the recent swing high of 17863 on the expiry day.
With Friday’s tail end surge, the Nifty finally knocked the door at the psychological mark of 18000. In fact, it managed to reclaim this
key level with some authority. We concluded the April month with whopping 4% gains and on week-on-week basis, the bulls added
more than a couple of percent to their kitty. On the domestic front, we had lot of tailwinds, but global markets remained a bit
spoilsport until last week. Things seem to be improving there as well, which certainly bodes well for the bulls. As far as Nifty is
concerned, it has certainly cemented its position at ‘200-SMA’ placed around 17600 - 17550. Before this, 17900 - 17700 should now
be treated as immediate supports. On the flipside, we expect the Nifty to continue this northward trajectory to enter the next
important cluster of 18200 – 18500 very soon.
Traders are advised to remain upbeat and should use declines (if any) to add bullish bets in the coming week. Sectorally, banking and
auto counters were the initial contributors; but now other heavyweight pockets like Capital Goods and IT (to some extent) have
started participating in this journey. It’s also important to highlight how the broader end of the spectrum (cash segment midcaps)
has found its mojo back. It’s advisable to keep focusing on such potential movers.
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Short Formation
May series starts with low OI base
Nifty spot closed at 18065 this week, against a close of 17624.05 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.93 to 1.33 on
Weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 3.45%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 14.29%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 46.15 against a premium of 90.60 points to its spot in the previous week.
Next month’s future is trading at a premium of 102.25 points.
Post seeing a breather in the previous week, the much-awaited momentum picked up to initial surpass the previous swing high and
reclaim 18000 with an authority. Rollover in Nifty and BankNifty stood at 64% and 82% respectively, which is certainly low to the
three months average. We believe we are inauguration May series with lower open interest base; however good amount of longs
were seen on Friday’s session. The ‘Long Short Ratio’ surged from 39% to 43% WoW, which is an encouraging sign. In options front,
meaningful piling of OI is visible at 17900-18000 put strikes, indicating nearby support. On the flip side, OI concentration is now seen
at the 18200 followed by 18300 call strike. Considering the above data points, we remain upbeat and expect continuation of ongoing
rally.
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Chg(%)
CROMPTON
13941300
115.64
(13.26)
IPCALAB
3807700
89.33
(15.23)
VOLTAS
8614200
54.26
(6.74)
GODREJCP
9495000
25.28
(7.85)
MCX
1188400
12.33
(3.65)
Weekly change in OI
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Chg(%)
SYNGENE
2715000
13.50
10.43
SIEMENS
1811425
9.09
6.64
AMBUJACEM
63864000
8.64
6.52
SBILIFE
7398000
7.82
3.37
RECLTD
58040000
4.01
8.86
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Technical and Derivatives Review |April 28, 2023
Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in
Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in
Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelone.in
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelone.in
For Derivative Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelone.in
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