Technical and Derivatives Review | March 28, 2018
10k defended at the financial year end
Sensex (32969 ) / Nifty (10114)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
The concluding week of the financial year was a truncated one; but, it was not at all short of actions. We saw massive recovery on
Monday followed by a gap up opening to retest the 10200 mark. However, markets remained under pressure on Wednesday, which
was mainly on the back of a sharp overnight sell off seen in US markets. Eventually, Nifty concluded the financial year tad above the
10100 mark.
Barring last couple of months, this financial year has been one of the memorable one for Indian stock markets. Although, we lost
10% from record highs, our markets closed 10% higher from March 2017 close (i.e. 9173.75), which still is a great achievement for
our benchmarks. With a near term view, the tide has certainly turned lower post the union budget and is likely to continue for some
time as well. For the coming week, 10230 - 10350 would be seen as a strong resistance zone; whereas, on the lower side, 10049
followed by 9951 would act as a crucial support zone. As long as Nifty remains within this range of 10230 - 9951, we expect the
consolidation to continue, during which lot of individual stocks would provide better trading opportunities.
Honestly speaking, Wednesday’s close does not indicate whether market rebounds first or continues to slide further. Hence,
although we stick to our recent cautious stance, traders need to keep a close eye how market behaves during the first half of the
forthcoming week. Ideally, at present, traders need to be prepared for both possibilities; a small relief rally or a continuation of the
ongoing down move.
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Technical and Derivatives Review | March 28, 2018
Short Rollover in April series
Nifty spot closed at 10113.70 this week, against a close of 9998.05 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.04 to 1.38 and
the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 4.76%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 27.08%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 38.25 points against a premium of 49.55 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 61.60 points.
In Nifty options front, we saw build-up scattered between 10000-10700 call and 9500-10200 put options. Maximum open interest
concentration for April series is placed at 10500 call and 10000 put options.
Post some correction, we saw smart recovery to finally conclude the week above 10100 mark. Rollover in Nifty is above its 3-Month
averages, indicating shorts formed in last series have been rolled-over. Surprisingly, the FIIs index futures ‘Long Short Ratio’ in the
beginning of April series is at 18%, which is lowest in past few years. At current juncture, index has a strong hurdle near
10200-10250 levels; whereas, any selling pressure below 9950 may bring index towards 9600-9700 levels.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Pric
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%
CUMMINSIND
2156400
180.56
682.45
(6.98)
IOC
39588000
(54.57)
176.70
108.74
PIDILITIND
1441000
20.79
922.50
1.89
OFSS
55050
(51.07)
3751.45
(1.20)
GRASIM
5382750
20.30
1055.95
(2.48)
NHPC
30537000
(37.17)
27.85
5.09
CANFINHOME
6026250
14.65
487.95
(3.61)
APOLLOHOSP
722000
(36.75)
1066.50
5.70
RAMCOCEM
902400
9.94
727.95
(1.23)
GAIL
14063091
(33.75)
330.40
0.55
Weekly change in OI
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2
Technical and Derivatives Review | March 28, 2018
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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