June 27, 2015
Technical Picks |
Tremendous resilience from bulls - 8500 a major hurdle
Sensex (27812) / Nifty (8381)
Trading for the week kicked off on a cheerful note on Monday
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
owing to favorable global cues. The optimism accelerated as
the day progressed, which resulted in a massive single day
gain of more than one and half a percent on the Nifty. This was
followed by four consecutive range bound sessions. However,
the Nifty stuck to its positive bias throughout the week and
eventually closed a tad below the 8400 mark. For the week, all
the sectors managed to close inside the positive territory; the
Realty, Banking, Capital Goods, Consumer Durables and
Healthcare stocks were among the major gainers. The Nifty
Source: Falcon
ended the week with a decent gain of 1.90% over the previous
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
week's closing.
Pattern formation:
The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at
27618 / 8350 and 25502 / 7673 levels, respectively.
The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at
27316 / 8245 and 27659 / 8360 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
The bulls have been showing tremendous resilience over the
Source: Falcon
past couple of weeks, despite uncertainty across the globe.
movement in individual Nifty heavyweight stocks, we believe
Albeit, we were not expecting this recent bounce to exceed the
the Nifty may retest 8450 - 8490 levels. In the near term, 8500
8200 mark on the Nifty; at the same time, a smart up
on the Nifty is seen as a major hurdle for the bulls. Thus, traders
move across the broader market on the previous Friday
should remain light on positions if the index approaches this
(June 19, 2015) and on Monday (June 23, 2015) has refrained
crucial resistance zone. On the flipside, 8320 - 8250 are seen
us from initiating short positions in the market. In our earlier
as immediate support levels for the Nifty. At this juncture, we
weekly report also, we had clearly mentioned against initiating
would focus more on stock specific positions rather than on the
short positions before the emanation of signs of reversal in the
Nifty. Traders are advised to follow strict stop losses and avoid
market. We maintain our view of avoiding any positions in the
taking undue risks.
Nifty without getting any clear trade set ups. The current
momentum is on the upside and considering the overall price
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June 27, 2015
Technical Picks |
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
27,181
27,496
27,733
28,048
28,284
NIFTY
8,188
8,285
8,354
8,450
8,520
BANKNIFTY
17,699
18,035
18,287
18,624
18,876
ACC
1,363
1,392
1,426
1,454
1,488
AMBUJACEM
220
223
228
232
236
ASIANPAINT
715
732
746
764
778
AXISBANK
544
555
567
578
590
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,330
2,438
2,496
2,603
2,661
BANKBARODA
136
140
146
151
157
BHEL
234
242
251
260
269
BPCL
824
843
858
877
892
BHARTIARTL
405
411
424
430
442
BOSCH LIMITED
19,707
20,756
21,549
22,598
23,391
CAIRN
174
178
184
188
194
CIPLA
584
601
618
636
652
COALINDIA
384
397
409
423
435
DRREDDY
3,350
3,440
3,490
3,580
3,630
GAIL
376
388
403
415
430
GRASIM
3,308
3,353
3,416
3,461
3,524
HCLTECH
895
926
943
974
991
HDFCBANK
1,012
1,037
1,054
1,080
1,097
HDFC
1,204
1,246
1,280
1,322
1,356
HEROMOTOCO
2,467
2,503
2,546
2,583
2,626
HINDALCO
110
114
119
122
128
HINDUNILVR
835
861
885
912
936
ICICIBANK
298
305
313
319
327
IDEA
167
170
174
176
181
INDUSINDBK
805
837
861
894
918
INFY
966
986
1,007
1,027
1,048
ITC
297
302
310
316
324
KOTAKBANK
1,288
1,334
1,374
1,420
1,460
LT
1,671
1,726
1,771
1,826
1,872
LUPIN
1,733
1,787
1,820
1,874
1,906
M&M
1,243
1,274
1,308
1,338
1,372
MARUTI
3,912
3,991
4,034
4,113
4,156
NMDC
114
116
118
121
123
NTPC
132
135
138
140
143
ONGC
303
308
316
321
329
POWERGRID
137
138
140
141
143
PNB
123
130
137
143
151
RELIANCE
971
986
1,000
1,015
1,029
SBIN
253
259
265
271
277
SUNPHARMA
835
851
866
882
897
TCS
2,518
2,555
2,582
2,619
2,646
TATAMOTORS
418
428
438
447
457
TATAPOWER
69
72
74
76
78
TATASTEEL
284
292
304
311
324
TECHM
495
508
533
547
572
ULTRACEMCO
2,717
2,816
2,893
2,992
3,069
VEDANTA
169
172
177
180
185
WIPRO
541
550
559
568
577
YESBANK
815
833
853
871
892
ZEEL
330
345
353
368
377
Technical Research Team
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Derivatives Review |
Big upside unlikely from current levels
Nifty spot closed at 8381.10 this week against a close of 8224.95 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.04 to 1.01
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 0.07%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 20.06%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has decreased from 1.04 to 1.01 levels in July series.
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has increased from 13.21% to
Being start of new series the overall buildup is quite scattered.
14.48%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 18.11% and
In call options huge amount of buildup was seen in the range
that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 25.21%. Liquid counters having
of 8300-9000 strike prices and of put options is seen in 7700-
very high HV are IBREALEST, GMRINFRA, KTKBANK,
8400 strikes. Maximum buildup in current series is seen in 8500
SOUTHBANK and DLF. Stocks where HV are on lower side are
call & 7900 put options.
IDEA, PAGEIND, ASIANPAINT, HINDPETRO and RELIANCE.
Open Interest Analysis
Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total open interest of market has decreased from
Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 0.55 points
`2,38,025/- cr. to `1,63,961/- cr. Stock futures open interest
against a premium of 12.65 points to its spot. Next month
has decreased from `62,830/- cr. to `53,864/- cr. Liquid
future is trading with premium of 35.15 points. Liquid counters
counters names which added significant positions last week
where CoC is high are BANKBARODA, BHARTIARTL, ITC, CIPLA
are SUN TV, KTKBANK, ALBK, SIEMENS AND TATASTEEL. On
and INFY. Stocks with negative CoC are TATASTEEL,
the other hand unwinding was visible in counters like
INDUSINDBK, BAJAJ-AUTO, CAIRN and IDFC.
KOTAKBANK, INDUSINDBK, ICICIBANK, DLF and
HINDUNILVR.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip : LT
CMP : `1787.30
Lot Size : 125
Exercise Date (F & O) :
30th. July 2015
View: Mildly bearish
Strategy: Ratio Bear Put Spread
Expected Payoff
Buy/Sell
Qty
Scrip
Strike
Series
Option
Buy/Sell Rate
Closing Price
Expected
Price
Type
(`)
(`)
Profit/Loss
BUY
125
LT
1750
JULY
PE
36.00
1525
(`37.00)
SELL
250
LT
1650
JULY
PE
12.00
1583
`23.00
LBEP
-
`1562/-
UBEP - `1738/-
1645
`83.00
1705
`33.00
Max. Risk: Unlimited
Max. Profit: `11,000/-
If LT continues to move below LBEP on expiry.
If LT closes at 1650 level on expiry.
1765
(`12.00)
NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if LT moves in favorable direction and time value decays.
1825
(`12.00)
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E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
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over 12 months investment period):
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Sell (< -15)