August 26, 2017
Technical Picks | August 26, 2017
Market to consolidate for a while but bias could be negative
Sensex (31596) / Nifty (9857)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
The Nifty index started the week with a range bound
move post the carnage seen in the index heavyweight Infy
last Friday. Post consolidating for a couple of sessions,
the index pulled back higher on Wednesday. The index
then continued its consolidation phase to end the
truncated week with negligible gains. While the broader
markets too traded in a narrow range, the Nifty Pharma
index pulled back higher on the last day of the week to
register weekly gains of over 3 percent.
Key Moving Averages:
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at 31069 / 9632 and 28514 /
8783 levels, respectively.
Source: Company, Angel Research
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
Sensex/Nifty are placed at 31726 / 9870 and 30973 /
9603 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
Overall it’s been a week of consolidation for our markets
as we saw Nifty gyrating in a thin band of 144 points
throughout the week. Eventually, the index managed to
reclaim the 9850 mark on weekly basis, courtesy to smart
recovery on Wednesday.
If we summarize the overall price development in last
couple of weeks, it seems the index has now slipped into
a consolidation mode. Although, Wednesday’s smart
recovery in the latter half was slightly on unexpected lines,
we would continue with the recent cautious stance. The
Source: Company, Angel Research
reason behind is if we look at the hourly chart
meticulously, it can be seen that the recent rally is still a
bounce back move towards the ‘Upward sloping Trend
Directionally speaking, we would expect the Nifty to slide
Line’ level of 9855, which coincides with the ’89 EMA’. In
towards the daily ’89-EMA’ level of 9640 - 9620 and
addition, the higher degree (weekly) chart is not very
even below that in the coming weeks; whereas, in the
encouraging as we saw some distortion in the
upward direction, crossing the 10000 mark would be a
penultimate week. Having said that we must accept the
daunting task in the near term. Traders are advised not to
fact, although markets are bit tentative, they are not
get carried away by this bounce back; as such moves in a
correcting the way they generally tend to. Our sense is,
consolidation phase can be deceptive at times. At this
the market is not so heavy at this moment and hence, we
juncture, a prudent strategy would be to keep tracking
are experiencing shallow corrections. Hence, looking at
above mentioned levels and following a stock centric
the recent price action along with the negative placement
approach.
of the ‘RSI-Smoothened’ on weekly time frame, we expect
the index to consolidate for a while. But, within this, it is
likely to trade with a negative bias.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | August 26, 2017
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
31,041
31,318
31,498
31,776
31,956
NIFTY
9,683
9,770
9,827
9,914
9,971
NIFTY BANK
23,621
23,948
24,179
24,506
24,738
ACC
1,748
1,765
1,789
1,806
1,830
ADANIPORTS
360
370
379
389
399
AMBUJACEM
268
272
275
278
281
ASIANPAINT
1,101
1,118
1,132
1,149
1,163
AUROPHARMA
676
704
720
747
763
AXISBANK
484
496
503
514
522
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,643
2,686
2,753
2,796
2,863
BANKBARODA
132
138
144
149
155
BPCL
484
496
506
518
528
BHARTIARTL
410
422
428
439
446
INFRATEL
371
377
387
394
403
BOSCHLTD
21,198
21,437
21,879
22,118
22,559
CIPLA
548
561
568
581
589
COALINDIA
231
236
243
248
255
DRREDDY
1,858
1,973
2,036
2,152
2,215
EICHERMOT
29,147
29,949
31,013
31,815
32,880
GAIL
363
373
382
392
400
HCLTECH
849
858
872
882
896
HDFCBANK
1,718
1,740
1,759
1,781
1,800
HDFC
1,713
1,735
1,752
1,774
1,791
HEROMOTOCO
3,756
3,819
3,929
3,992
4,102
HINDALCO
219
226
231
238
244
HINDUNILVR
1,155
1,167
1,188
1,200
1,220
IBULHSGFIN
1,122
1,166
1,200
1,244
1,278
ICICIBANK
289
293
297
301
305
IOC
399
414
426
440
453
INDUSINDBK
1,581
1,624
1,654
1,697
1,727
INFY
835
873
899
937
963
ITC
277
279
282
285
288
KOTAKBANK
948
960
976
988
1,004
LT
1,101
1,117
1,128
1,143
1,155
LUPIN
891
942
971
1,022
1,051
M&M
1,352
1,364
1,378
1,390
1,404
MARUTI
7,315
7,464
7,549
7,698
7,784
NTPC
163
166
170
174
178
ONGC
152
156
160
164
168
POWERGRID
214
217
221
225
228
RELIANCE
1,531
1,550
1,571
1,590
1,611
SBIN
267
274
278
284
288
SUNPHARMA
448
465
477
495
506
TCS
2,430
2,464
2,506
2,539
2,582
TATAMTRDVR
219
223
226
230
233
TATAMOTORS
366
375
380
390
395
TATAPOWER
77
78
80
81
83
TATASTEEL
605
622
631
648
657
TECHM
414
421
433
439
451
ULTRACEMCO
3,848
3,894
3,976
4,022
4,104
VEDANTA
284
291
299
306
314
WIPRO
284
287
290
293
296
YESBANK
1,652
1,686
1,719
1,753
1,786
ZEEL
498
505
512
519
526
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
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Derivatives Review | August 26, 2017
FIIs continue curbing liquidity, avoid longs
Nifty spot closed at 9857.05 this week, against a close of 9837.40 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.14 to 1.22
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 8.57%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 0.74%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 16.20
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 17.00 points to its spot. Next
KAJARIACER
729600
66.42
705.05
9.02
month future is trading with a premium of 50.30 points.
BERGEPAINT
1566400
40.99
243.80
0.85
PCR-OI has increased from 1.14 to 1.22 levels on W-o-W
SIEMENS
639000
35.81
1266.80
(3.54)
basis. In call options, we hardly saw any strike adding relevant
build-up; however, decent amount of unwinding was seen in
INDIGO
1786800
25.28
1190.05
(6.63)
9800 and out the money call strikes 10200-10500. On the
RAMCOCEM
612800
22.36
666.45
(2.79)
flip side, 9400 and 9900 put options added good amount of
DHFL
23076000
22.22
474.95
5.29
positions, followed by unwinding in 10000 put option. Highest
open interest in August series remains intact in10000 call and
MOTHERSUMI
10008750
18.57
311.45
(4.52)
9800 put option.
CONCOR
1109375
16.85
1267.95
0.90
Stock that added longs last week are KAJARIACER, DHFL,
BALKRISIND, CADILAHC and AUROPHARMA. While, fresh
shorts were visible in PCJEWELLER, MOTHERSUMI,
Weekly OI losers
CANFINHOME, HINDZINC and SIEMENS. Liquid counters
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
with higher CoC are BERGEPAINT, IBREALEST, SUZLON, IDFC
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
and NCC. Stocks with negative CoC are GSFC, RBLBANK,
HEXAWARE
2355000
(17.54)
275.00
0.16
GAIL, TVSMOTOR and CASTROLIND.
UBL
879900
(15.35)
812.65
1.39
Last week, the benchmark index (NIFTY) remained range
COLPAL
1162700
(12.16)
1092.30
1.62
bound with marginal change in open interest. FIIs continued
GODFRYPHLP
608500
(12.07)
1054.35
(3.15)
they selling streak in cash market segment, they sold equities
to the tune of Rs. 4666 cores. While, mixed activity was seen
JUSTDIAL
4717200
(10.21)
364.15
(0.25)
in F&O segment last week. However, shorts formed in
BATAINDIA
2581700
(10.08)
669.60
(1.54)
index futures for the major part of August series are still in
APOLLOTYRE
9582000
(9.34)
256.80
(5.05)
system. Thus, unless we don’t see any relevant change in
data, we continue maintaining our negative stance on
GODREJIND
2448000
(9.18)
604.65
0.89
index.
Weekly change in OI
15,000
Call
Put
10,000
5,000
0
(5,000)
(10,000)
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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