Technical and Derivatives Review | July 26, 2019
Some respite at 11200, banking recovered well
Sensex (37883) / Nifty (11284)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
Last week’s mayhem continued on Monday as we started proceedings for the week with a downside gap tad below 11400. The selling
aggravated as the week progressed and in the process, we went on to violate the crucial support zone of 11350 - 11300 as well. On
Thursday, index made a valiant attempt to give some bounce back and became successful to a certain extent. However, the earlier support
of 11350 acted as a sturdy wall as we witnessed a complete nosedive thereafter. In fact, on Friday, things looked a bit scary in early trades
but index somehow managed to hold its ground and had a gradual recovery to conclude with over a percent cut.
Post the budget announcement, market participants looked completely dejected and it’s clearly reflected in the price action thereafter. The
overall chart structure looks distorted and hence, till the time we are below 11550 - 11700, the bears remain in the dominating position. As
far as supports are concerned, 11200 seems to have earned some respect and below which we can see a sheet anchor support of ‘200-day
SMA’ which now coincides with May lows of 11108.30. Considering Friday’s action, a possibility of some relief in the forthcoming week
cannot be ruled out. In this scenario, 11350 - 11450 can be retested. But as highlighted above, one needs to be agile and should probably
take some profit off the table at least on momentum trades.
In the forthcoming week, we expect stock specific action to continue and should ideally be avoiding aggressive positions. We reiterate that
the on-going decline is providing excellent opportunity to grab some of the marquee names that had seen gravity defying moves since a
year and are finally undergoing some price correction.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical and Derivatives Review | July 26, 2019
FIIs Long Short Ratio plunged to 40%
Nifty spot closed at 11284.30 this week, against a close of 11419.25 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.05 to 1.37.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 4.06%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has decreased by 12.86%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 42.70 points against a premium of 42.20 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 92.95 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, we saw good amount of build-up in 11300-11800 call options. On the
other side, 10800-11300 puts added decent positions. Maximum open interest for the monthly series now stands at 11500 call and
11000 put option.
As far as this week is concerned, we started of the session with a downside gap and extended the correction almost towards 11200
mark. So, the July series was completely dominated by the bear’s as we saw a massive fall of 5% in a single series. Rollover in Nifty
stood at 73.73%, which is certainly below the 3-month average of 75.43%. In F&O segment, they were sellers in index futures
segment throughout the series and also rolled these positions to August series. They are beginning new series, with index futures
‘Long Short Ratio’ at 40%. At current juncture, 11100-11200 is an important support zone; whereas, 11400-11500 shall act as a
hurdle in the near term.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
MCX
2082500
31.12
859.70
3.42
RBLBANK
11502000
100.99
501.55
(21.37)
IGL
4774000
24.00
319.90
3.66
OIL
13385262
61.20
157.90
(8.54)
DABUR
13596250
19.42
419.70
2.70
TATAELXSI
2346600
50.37
701.25
(17.41)
COLPAL
2201500
13.17
1167.65
2.19
AMARAJABAT
1765400
32.25
603.60
(6.33)
ZEEL
24566100
10.03
352.55
1.19
BEL
37050000
31.19
98.40
(6.69)
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
2
Technical and Derivatives Review | July 26, 2019
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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