Technical and Derivatives Review | April 26, 2019
11549 becomes a sheet anchor
Sensex (39067) / Nifty (11755)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
Last week our benchmark index clocked new record high of 11856.15. However, it turned out to be a formality as there was no follow up
momentum seen to extend the rally. Last Thursday, markets gave a hint of profit booking and the similar sort of decline was seen on the
first day of the week gone by as well. Some macro factors like, Brent crude rising beyond its key levels of $73-74 weighed down heavily on
traders’ sentiments. Fortunately for us, the damage was not as severe as it looked like on one moment. Due to some smart recovery in the
latter half, Nifty managed to reclaim the 11700 mark at the end of the week.
There is a famous saying, all’s well that ends well and its goes perfectly with this week’s price development. Firstly, we successfully
managed to defend the key support of 11549 and then went on to close well inside the safe territory by reclaiming the 11700 mark. Now,
at his juncture, we do not have signals that will provide us a proper trade set up. But since the broader trend remains bullish, we continue
to remain upbeat on the market as long as it holds 11549, convincingly. On the higher side, 11800 followed by 11856 are the levels to
watch out for. If we see any renewed buying interest in some of the heavyweight constituents, we would expect index hitting fresh highs
very soon. Till the time, the consolidation continues in the range of 11856 - 11549.
Traders are advised not to take aggressive positions till the time we remain trapped in the mentioned range. At such time, a stock centric
approach becomes the more pragmatic approach.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical and Derivatives Review | April 26, 2019
Nifty Rollover highest since September 2016
Nifty spot closed at 11754.65 this week, against a close of 11752.80 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.58 to 1.63.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 5.37%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has increased by 10.65.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 58.85 points against a premium of 86.90 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 97.05 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, fresh build-up was seen in 11800 to 12000 call options. On the other
side, fresh build up was seen in 11000, 11500 to 11700 put options. Maximum open interest for monthly May series now stands at
12000 call and 11000 put options.
It was indeed a volatile expiry week for our market; however, we concluded the April series on a flat note. During the series, we
observed that in the intraday up moves fresh long were formed; whereas, a decline in market was mainly due to profit booking and
not short formation. Rollovers in Nifty stood at 81%, highest post August 2016. Wherever, we witnessed some profit booking,
stronger hands preferred adding fresh longs. In fact, they rolled their bullish bets in index futures, resulting their ‘Long Short Ratio’
jumping from 69% to 75% series on series. Considering the rollover figures, we remain upbeat on market and expect Nifty to rally
towards yet another psychological mark of 12000.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
ULTRACEMCO
2274400
19.60
4649.90
8.20
INFRATEL
7172000
38.19
267.45
(13.52)
AUROPHARMA
17124000
4.03
838.05
5.29
PEL
4140118
13.06
2398.65
(9.72)
ONGC
67751250
20.23
169.20
4.77
MARUTI
2855475
4.70
6895.05
(8.15)
BPCL
13003200
20.32
373.25
2.06
GMRINFRA
191160000
2.26
17.15
(7.30)
BATAINDIA
1971200
6.22
1453.50
1.99
L&TFH
21177000
3.77
139.05
(6.11)
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
2
Technical and Derivatives Review | April 26, 2019
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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