1
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| March 26, 2021
Some recovery towards the end helps reclaiming 14500
Sensex (33318) / Nifty (14507)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
The previous Friday’s sharp recovery was followed by a flat to positive start on Monday, owing to favourable global cues. The lead
extended on the following session after the Supreme Court’s verdict on Loan Moratorium. However as we alluded to in the intra-
week commentary, the conviction was clearly lacking in the up move, which eventually resulted in a sharp decline thereafter. Due to
mid-week sell off, the Nifty went on to enter sub-14300 territory for the first time after the Budget session. However, similar to the
previous week, this Friday too brought some positivity back in to the market as we witnessed a decent recovery across the board to
reclaim the 14500 on a weekly closing basis.
After the recent consolidation, the market finally started feeling some heat as we witnessed in the week gone by. Fortunately we
remained a bit adamant and did not get carried away by the in between upswings. We continue to remain cautious and the way we
are placed on the charts, further correction cannot be ruled out. As far as levels are concerned, the next key support is visible in the
zone of 14140 – 14000 as it coincides with the daily ’89 EMA’ and the 78.6% retracement of the up move from 13596.75 to record
high of 15431.75. Before this, 14400 – 14250 are to be seen as immediate supports. On the upside, the cluster of resistances is
visible at every 100-150 points. So, for the forthcoming week, 14600 – 14750 – 14900 are to be seen as pain points for the Nifty. Till
the time, 14900 is not surpassed with some authority, the short term trend remains bearish and hence, it’s better not to get
complacent.
Here the only tricky point is the placement of the banking index. It has already corrected in line with our expectations and has
underperformed our benchmark significantly in the recent past. This space saw massive recovery in the latter half on Thursday after
precisely testing the ’89-EMA’ level of 32420. This level coincides with the previous breakout point on the budget day. Hence, it
would be really interesting to see how it behaves going forward. If it fails to show any strength here, we should then gear up for an
extended correction. In the bull-case scenario, it’s located just at the right junction from where it can take a U-turn. Let’s see how
things pan out because the other sectors too started participating in the correction and the broader market which has been
convincingly outperforming, started to see some decent profit taking.
.
2
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| March 26, 2021
FII’s form long positions in Nifty post expiry
Nifty spot closed at 14507.30 this week, against a close of 14744.00 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.20 to 1.14.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 7.49%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has decreased by 1%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 113.80 points against a premium of 88.20 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading at a premium of 160.70 points.
In options segment, 15000 call option and 14500 put options added good amount of open interest. Maximum build-up in the weekly
series is now placed in 15000 call and 14000 put options.
Nifty witnessed some pullback at the start of the week, but it corrected sharply during expiry to sneak below 14300 mark. However,
the index trimmed some of the losses on the last day and ended around 14500. Nifty has started the April series with a low open
interest base and has added some long positions on Friday. But we witnessed good amount of short rollover in Bank Nifty which are
intact in the system. FII’s have added longs in the Nifty futures in Friday’s session and their index ‘Long Short Ratio’ at the end of
week stands over 70 percent. The weekly options data hints a support around 14300 and resistance in the range of 14700-14800.
Looking at the long formations on Friday, we may see the index moving towards the mentioned resistance range. It will be
interesting to see it there’s any short covering in Bank Nifty in the coming week. Traders are advised to trade with a stock specific
approach with a tab on the above mentioned levels.
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
POWERGRID 14228000 11.12 215.70 (6.30)
M&MFIN
13576000
6.03
206.50
(4.40)
ONGC
41657000
5.73
103.30
(6.56)
INDIGO
3481500
3.89
1616.80
(3.14)
MARUTI
2368300
3.75
6842.30
(3.91)
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
AARTIIND 402900 9.47 1336.25 6.47
TATASTEEL
42875700
8.66
770.75
5.14
SAIL
139023000
8.38
77.50
5.66
AMBUJACEM
14652000
6.61
297.45
4.66
BERGEPAINT
3059100
3.19
765.70
5.49
3
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| March 26, 2021
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn – 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Derivative Queries E-mail: [email protected]
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay
Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and
Portfolio Manager and Investment Adviser with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking
Limited is a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration
number INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for
accessing /dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed
public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits
and risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evaluate the
contrary view, if any.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot
testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document.
While Angel Broking Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be
regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information.
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelbroking.com
