Technical and Derivatives Review | November 24, 2017
Contracting range indicates higher volatility in the expiry week
Sensex (33679) / Nifty (10390)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
It’s been a week of consolidation for our markets but the encouraging point was market man-aged to maintain their positive mood
throughout the week in a gradual manner. In terms of intraday activity, Friday was the only day when we saw some action in the
market as rising hopes over Standard and Poor’s (S&P) rating (for India) boosted traders’ sentiments.
During the entire week, we have been mentioning the trading range of 10250 - 10368 for the index. After four days of struggle, the
Nifty finally managed to break the upper range. But, the kind of buying momentum ideally should have been witnessed after a
breakout was clearly lacking. Hence, we need to relook the situation and will have to revise the upper range a bit. Now, if we look at
the hourly chart, we can observe Nifty facing a resistance on concluding day precisely at the 78.6% retracement level (10405) of the
recent down move. Hence, the bullish momentum can be witnessed only above this mentioned resistance of 10405. On the flipside,
10350 - 10307 would now be seen as a key support zone; because, violation of this may apply brakes on the recent optimism.
Barring last day, we saw individual stocks soaring to a great extent during the week and we advised on following stock centric
moves. But, on Friday, there was no clear outperformance from individual stocks as well. Hence, the coming week being the expiry
one, first half would be very important for our market as we expect some volatility to pick up and hence, we may see some clear
moves thereafter.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical and Derivatives Review | November 24, 2017
PCR-OI on the higher side, expect volatility
Nifty spot closed at 10389.70 this week, against a close of 10283.60 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased to 1.46 from 1.23 levels and
the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 11.51%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 0.73%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 19.65 points against a premium of 25.25 points to its spot. Next month future is
trading with a premium of 55.65 points.
PCR-OI has increased from 1.23 to 1.46 on week on week basis; due to build-up in put options and unwinding in call options. We saw open
interest addition in 10000 and 10200-10400 put options. On the flip side, hardly any strike of call options added relevant positions.
However, decent amount of unwinding was witnessed in 10200 and 10300 call options. For November series, maximum open interest
concentration is placed at 10500 call and 10300 put option.
We witnessed index consolidating in a tight range throughout the week. At the same time, open interest activity in index futures too
remained muted. As far as FIIs activities are concerned, they covered some of their existing short positions and added fresh longs in index
futures but the quantum was insignificant. But, they still hold good amount of shorts formed in index futures during start of November
series. In addition, they continued selling equities and stock futures for the last entire week. At present, options data suggests index to
trade in a range of 10300-10500 for the remaining part of current series. Thus, traders are advised to remain light in index till it is trading in
the above mentioned range and prefer stock centric approach for coming week.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
DISHTV
30100000
16.00
82.15
7.18
L&TFH
55876500
62.95
178.30
(6.45)
NCC
24720000
14.61
111.25
6.71
SHREECEM
52450
58.94
17118.95
(6.36)
VGUARD
3705000
18.52
238.90
6.53
MOTHERSUMI
16494100
37.43
346.75
(4.00)
UJJIVAN
8834400
13.06
414.95
5.94
ACC
1664800
15.16
1701.70
(3.94)
PCJEWELLER
16627500
15.69
384.60
5.50
ICICIPRULI
7991100
13.29
379.05
(3.78)
GAIL
17618000
12.05
469.80
5.48
BANKBARODA
55035000
18.31
177.35
(3.43)
ZEEL
7273500
14.37
565.50
5.31
AMBUJACEM
9937500
9.44
265.75
(3.40)
TATAPOWER
51768000
29.87
94.10
5.14
HINDALCO
45976000
7.34
252.45
(2.94)
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
2
Technical and Derivatives Review | November 24, 2017
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited,
Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and
Portfolio Manager and Investment Adviser with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private
Limited is a registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number
INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing
/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public
offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evaluate the
contrary view, if any.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources
believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for
general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any
loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt.
Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any
representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking
Pvt. Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance,
or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or
in connection with the use of this information.
For Private Circulation Only
3