Technical Picks | September 24, 2016
Nifty reclaimed 8800, not so convincing bounce though…
Sensex (28668) / Nifty (8832)
The Nifty started the proceedings with a marginal positive
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
opening on Monday. Ahead of the global events viz. the
monetary policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and
the Bank of Japan, the index traded in a narrow range till
Wednesday. On Thursday, the Nifty opened with a positive
gap in line with the optimistic reaction seen in the global
markets. However, due to lack of follow up buying, the index
corrected marginally in the latter half on Friday. Finally, the
week concluded with the Nifty index gaining 0.59 percent
over its previous week's close.
Key Moving Averages:
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Source: Company, Angel Research
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
26702
/
8184 and
25933 / 7884 levels, respectively.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
27773
/
8544 and
26657 / 8173 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
The eagerly awaited US Federal policy finalized on
Wednesday and the cheerful mood across the market post
the event, witnessed a gap up opening with a decent margin
on Thursday. Honestly speaking, this bounce was quite
unexpected considering the previous week’s development on
charts. Despite strong opening, we maintained a cautious
Source: Company, Angel Research
stance on the market not only for the last couple of sessions
of the week but also for the forthcoming week. We would
Thus, we are a bit sceptical on the last week’s bounce and
like to highlight the key observations that are holding us
expect a near term corrective move towards 8688 - 8622
back from changing our stance. Firstly, the ‘Shooting Star’
levels, as long as Nifty manages to stay below the 8910
mark on a closing basis. In case of a sustained move
pattern formed on weekly chart during the antepenultimate
beyond this level, we could see this bounce extending
week. Though this pattern was confirmed on a weekly
towards the recent high of 8968.70 and then probably
closing basis, it is certainly a not so encouraging sign for the
allowing us to reassess the situation. Till then, it is advisable
bulls. Secondly, we can observe a strong resistance around
for traders to stay light on positions, follow strict stop losses
the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (8880) of the recent down
and avoid taking undue risks.
move; coinciding with the ‘Downward Gap Area’ as well as
the ‘Parabolic SAR’ indicator on daily chart.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | September 24, 2016
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
28,258
28,463
28,667
28,873
29,077
NIFTY
8,691
8,761
8,827
8,898
8,963
NIFTY BANK
19,457
19,680
19,972
20,194
20,487
ACC
1,572
1,594
1,633
1,656
1,695
ADANIPORTS
264
269
274
279
283
AMBUJACEM
251
255
262
266
273
ASIANPAINT
1,138
1,164
1,184
1,211
1,230
AUROPHARMA
756
799
831
873
906
AXISBANK
519
538
575
594
631
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,778
2,854
2,933
3,009
3,088
BANKBARODA
160
165
168
173
177
BHEL
140
143
147
150
154
BPCL
569
587
598
615
626
BHARTIARTL
313
320
325
332
337
INFRATEL
325
348
368
391
410
BOSCH
22,684
23,012
23,319
23,647
23,953
CIPLA
583
597
608
622
632
COALINDIA
319
324
329
333
338
DRREDDY
3,107
3,145
3,172
3,210
3,237
EICHERMOT
22,284
23,569
24,284
25,569
26,284
GAIL
378
382
388
392
398
GRASIM
4,739
4,819
4,898
4,978
5,056
HCLTECH
772
785
794
807
816
HDFCBANK
1,271
1,292
1,305
1,326
1,339
HDFC
1,367
1,396
1,412
1,441
1,456
HEROMOTOCO
3,322
3,427
3,522
3,627
3,722
HINDALCO
136
145
151
160
166
HINDUNILVR
889
900
911
922
933
ICICIBANK
261
266
272
277
283
IDEA
80
81
83
84
86
INDUSINDBK
1,140
1,180
1,206
1,246
1,271
INFY
1,022
1,032
1,050
1,061
1,079
ITC
245
249
256
260
267
KOTAKBANK
773
784
798
810
824
LT
1,439
1,468
1,493
1,522
1,546
LUPIN
1,434
1,462
1,512
1,540
1,590
M&M
1,385
1,398
1,414
1,426
1,442
MARUTI
5,394
5,498
5,566
5,670
5,738
NTPC
151
154
156
159
161
ONGC
245
253
258
266
271
POWERGRID
171
173
177
179
183
RELIANCE
1,053
1,078
1,094
1,119
1,134
SBIN
247
251
255
259
263
SUNPHARMA
768
774
782
788
797
TCS
2,314
2,356
2,392
2,434
2,470
TATAMTRDVR
338
344
351
358
365
TATAMOTORS
534
544
553
563
572
TATAPOWER
72
74
76
77
79
TATASTEEL
345
358
369
383
394
TECHM
439
447
461
469
483
ULTRACEMCO
3,824
3,894
3,962
4,032
4,100
WIPRO
472
476
481
485
490
YESBANK
1,113
1,173
1,216
1,276
1,319
ZEEL
509
517
526
534
543
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | September 24, 2016
FIIs activity remained muted, lethargic movement to continue
Nifty spot closed at 8831.55 this week, against a close of 8779.85 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.10 to 1.15
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 8.33%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 2.34%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 12.10
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 28.35 points to its spot. Next
CASTROLIND
14777000
109.80
473.05
6.70
month future is trading with premium of 55.85 points.
SRF
521500
51.16
1789.90
9.90
PCR-OI has increased from 1.10 to 1.15 levels. Last week, we
BATAINDIA
4292200
40.66
507.70
(3.74)
didn’t witness any major OI additions in Nifty options.
JUBLFOOD
2823500
38.75
994.55
(4.80)
However, 9000 call and 8800 put options were comparatively
active and added some fresh OI build-up week on week.
BEL
2391750
35.93
1249.55
3.29
While, some unwinding was visible in 8700 call and 8400 &
DABUR
6480000
23.61
283.15
(3.67)
8600 put options. Highest open interest in September series
SINTEX
40220625
22.90
86.70
5.09
remains intact at 9000 call and 8500 put options.
TV18BRDCST
88332000
22.23
45.05
4.04
Stock that added longs last week are SRF, IFCI, DLF,
CASTROLIND and SINTEX. While, fresh shorts were visible in
AXISBANK, LUPIN, JUBLFOOD, BATAINDIA and DABUR.
Weekly OI losers
Liquid counters with higher CoC are BHEL, INFY,
OI
OI
Price
POWERGRID, AMBUJACEM and AXISBANK. Stocks with
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
negative CoC are BEL, CEATLTD, TVSMOTOR, RECLTD and
APOLLOHOSP
532800
(26.29)
1338.30
2.44
VEDL.
WOCKPHARMA
3437400
(24.56)
883.50
(2.93)
Nifty and BankNifty closed more or less flat on WoW basis
PFC
21324000
(20.30)
123.05
3.45
with some rise in open interest, suggesting mixed activity. Nifty
traded in a very narrow range of 8750-8900 in last two
CENTURYTEX
6524100
(18.59)
908.95
4.57
weeks. At present, we don’t see any relevant data which may
OIL
1261400
(16.54)
404.25
0.79
lead Nifty to sustain at higher levels. Last week, we witnessed
YESBANK
12495000
(15.62)
1232.50
5.03
heavyweights falling with good amount of fresh short build-up;
while, up move in few stocks was merely a short covering
TORNTPHARM
336000
(15.32)
1641.05
2.59
bounce. Thus, we would suggest traders to exit from long
PETRONET
6840000
(14.99)
343.75
2.87
positions as we may see some pain going ahead.
Weekly change in OI
25,000
Call
Put
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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