September 23, 2017
Technical Picks | September 23, 2017
Breaks on the optimism, index unlikely to continue uptrend
Sensex (31922) / Nifty (9964)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
The week started on a positive note as the Nifty surpassed
the August high of 10137.85 with a gap up opening on
Monday. The index then traded in a narrow range during
mid-week as there was stock-specific momentum which
provided good trading opportunities to intraday traders.
However, the index breached its hourly ’89 EMA’ support
on Friday which led to a sharp sell-off in the indices and
the broader market as well. This corrective move on last
trading session of the week led to the index register a loss
of 1.20 percent over its previous week’s close.
Key Moving Averages:
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at 31399 / 9769 and 28820 /
8887 levels, respectively.
Source: Company, Angel Research
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at 32054 / 10019 and 31340 /
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
9731 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
Although the Nifty index registered a new all-time high
early this week, the market participants were unable to
carry forward the positive momentum at new highs. Post
the recent breakout from a consolidation phase, the ’89
EMA’ on the hourly chart was a crucial support for the
bulls to continue the trend. Friday’s breach of the
mentioned support around 10058 and the broad market
participation in the correction has certainly applied
breaks to the uptrend which we have recently seen.
On the daily charts, this week’s breakout from the August
high has been a ‘failure’, which is also commonly known
as a ‘false breakout’. Along with the price correction, the
Source: Company, Angel Research
‘RSI Smoothened’ oscillator has given a negative
crossover from its overbought zone and has sneaked
While there could be higher volatility, any pullback moves
below the 70 levels. If we observe the lower time frame
in the index in the coming week is likely to restrict the
charts, it is observed that the index has breached its
upmove around the resistances of 10050 and 10150. As
hourly ’89 EMA’ support and has closed tad above the
mentioned above, the index has closed tad above the
hourly ’200 SMA’ placed around 9950. The ‘Supertrend’
support of 9950, which if breached, could drag the index
indicator, which is a trend following indicator plotted on
towards the daily ’89 EMA’ support in near-term which is
prices, too has turned negative on the daily and the
placed around 9770. Hence, we advise traders to stay
hourly chart. The above mentioned indicators and
cautious and trade with a proper risk management
oscillators are indicating that the index is unlikely to see
strategy.
any significant upmove in near term.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | September 23, 2017
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
31,473
31,698
32,111
32,336
32,749
NIFTY
9,806
9,885
10,032
10,111
10,258
NIFTY BANK
23,839
24,104
24,605
24,869
25,370
ACC
1,571
1,630
1,739
1,797
1,906
ADANIPORTS
388
394
405
411
422
AMBUJACEM
256
263
275
282
294
ASIANPAINT
1,170
1,191
1,227
1,249
1,284
AUROPHARMA
684
704
738
758
793
AXISBANK
489
497
512
520
534
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,922
2,982
3,069
3,129
3,216
BANKBARODA
135
139
145
148
154
BPCL
469
481
494
506
520
BHARTIARTL
358
377
390
408
421
INFRATEL
362
376
388
402
415
BOSCHLTD
20,808
21,151
21,646
21,989
22,484
CIPLA
543
564
582
603
621
COALINDIA
239
246
256
263
273
DRREDDY
2,036
2,247
2,387
2,598
2,738
EICHERMOT
30,289
30,934
31,925
32,571
33,562
GAIL
376
387
407
418
437
HCLTECH
855
870
884
899
913
HDFCBANK
1,789
1,807
1,837
1,855
1,885
HDFC
1,725
1,753
1,774
1,802
1,823
HEROMOTOCO
3,652
3,722
3,850
3,919
4,047
HINDALCO
215
223
237
245
259
HINDUNILVR
1,200
1,220
1,254
1,273
1,307
IBULHSGFIN
1,164
1,203
1,270
1,309
1,376
ICICIBANK
263
270
283
290
303
IOC
387
398
410
421
434
INDUSINDBK
1,656
1,682
1,720
1,746
1,784
INFY
872
885
901
915
931
ITC
260
264
268
273
277
KOTAKBANK
987
1,004
1,025
1,042
1,063
LT
1,129
1,157
1,204
1,232
1,278
LUPIN
971
993
1,019
1,040
1,066
M&M
1,265
1,276
1,291
1,302
1,317
MARUTI
7,966
8,017
8,101
8,152
8,236
NTPC
161
164
167
169
173
ONGC
159
162
166
169
173
POWERGRID
202
206
212
215
221
RELIANCE
775
796
834
856
894
SBIN
253
257
266
270
279
SUNPHARMA
490
502
516
528
541
TCS
2,440
2,472
2,506
2,538
2,573
TATAMTRDVR
219
225
234
240
249
TATAMOTORS
390
401
414
425
439
TATAPOWER
76
78
82
84
88
TATASTEEL
622
638
667
683
712
TECHM
433
446
455
468
477
ULTRACEMCO
3,823
3,911
4,078
4,166
4,332
VEDANTA
292
300
314
322
336
WIPRO
280
287
291
298
302
YESBANK
344
352
368
376
391
ZEEL
500
511
531
542
562
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | September 23, 2017
Put writers ran for safe haven as index plunged below five digits
Nifty spot closed at 9964.40 this week, against a close of 10085.40 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased to 1.24 from 1.53
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 11.32%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 6.43%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 18.55
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 16.55 points to its spot. Next
INDIGO
3276000
62.40
1105.80
(6.34)
month future is trading with a premium of 57.30 points.
AJANTPHARM
1017200
38.21
1210.75
(0.62)
PCR-OI has plunged from 1.53 to 1.24 on W-o-W basis. In
RELCAPITAL
10483500
36.18
663.40
(10.74)
call option, 10000-10300 strikes added good amount of
positions; followed by some unwinding in 10500 call options.
KAJARIACER
976800
33.59
722.60
1.42
On the flip side, we hardly saw any strike adding fresh open
NATIONALUM
24416000
33.57
76.15
(5.29)
interest; however, significant unwinding was seen in 9800-
HEROMOTOCO
1799000
32.81
3791.95
(2.80)
10100 put option. Therefore, maximum concentration in put
option has shifted back to 9900 strike; while, highest OI
STAR
2265000
31.04
950.15
(4.04)
remains intact in 10200 call option.
SOUTHBANK
142804569
30.26
29.35
(0.17)
Stocks that added longs last week are TECHM, NBCC,
KAJARIACER, MOTHERSUMI and DRREDDY. While, fresh
shorts were visible in RELCAPITAL, JETAIRWAYS, DLF, ARVIND
Weekly OI losers
and BAJAJFINSV. Liquid counters with higher CoC are RCOM,
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
DHFL, IGL, SYNDIBANK and ICICIBANK. Stocks with negative
CoC are OIL, INDIGO, PAGEIND, CHOLAFIN and
JUSTDIAL
3844800
(22.98)
386.30
0.12
AMBUJACEM.
ZEEL
5307900
(22.02)
523.10
(2.11)
Last week, the benchmark index (NIFTY) plunged below
DIVISLAB
7619200
(21.95)
972.60
11.65
10000 mark along with decent OI addition. PCR-OI declined
KOTAKBANK
7938400
(18.77)
1025.20
1.63
as put writers ran for shelter seeing index correcting below
psychological level. FIIs continued their selling streak in
ADANIPORTS
7120000
(18.44)
400.80
(1.21)
cash segment and they bought good amount of index puts
CAPF
3553600
(17.83)
778.30
(3.33)
along with writing in call options, which is certainly not a
NIITTECH
1230000
(16.41)
519.35
3.48
good sign for bulls. Looking at the F&O data, we believe
9900-9950 is an immediate support for index; while
CADILAHC
3516800
(15.98)
489.15
1.29
10100-10150 is a strong hurdle for index.
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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