1
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| July 23, 2021
Wait continues for 16000, monthly expiry to bring some action
Sensex (52976) / Nifty (15856)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
The truncated week kick started with a surprising gap down on Monday owing to some nervousness across the globe. As the day
progressed, the selloff augmented to close below the 15800 mark. In fact there was a follow through seen to it on the subsequent
day to test sub-15600 levels. Fortunately the global peers had a good relief move thereafter which resulted in a v-shaped recovery in
our markets in the latter half. Eventually, Nifty ended the action packed week with negligible losses.
It’s been more than a month now; the Nifty is trapped in a range of merely 500 points. This certainly is a slender range considering
the fact we are trading at much elevated levels. For the most part of June, we were confined to domestic triggers only; but as we
stepped into the July month, the global factors started to influence our markets to a great extent. Unfortunately, global peers
experiences some sell off when Nifty is about to reach the milestone of 16000 and on the other hand, some relief comes when we
are at crucial supports. This week’s price action is exactly a replica of this. After undergoing some price correction for first couple of
days, we witnessed a good relief rally to reclaim the important level of 15800 on a weekly closing basis.
This certainly bodes well for the bulls but considering the recent trend, we are still not out of the woods yet. So rather than pre-
empting and getting caught on the wrong foot, we would wait for Nifty to surpass the sturdy wall of 16000. If this happens then the
next immediate levels to watch out for would be 16200 16400. Although they may appear not so far levels from 16000, we would
see good stock specific action in this period. Now as we reiterate, if Nifty has to reach and surpass the magical figure of 16000, the
banking certainly plays a vital role here. It would be very important for the banking index to surpass the 36000 mark, if we have to
see benchmark at new highs. Until then 35000 35500 are to be considered as intermediate hurdles. On the lower side, the cluster
of supports for Nifty is placed at 15700 15550 15450 and for BANKNIFTY, 34200 33900 are to be seen as make or break levels.
Any sustainable move below the lower end of this support zone would reverse the short term trend in the downward direction.
Traders should keep a note of it and position accordingly.
.
2
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| July 23, 2021
Shorts out of the system, all eye on magical figure of 16000
Nifty spot closed at 15856.05 this week, against a close of 15923.40 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.24 to 1.15.
The annualized Cost of Carry is negative at 1.13%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 2.37%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a discount of 2.95 points against a premium of 15.35 points to its spot. Next month future is
trading at a premium of 36.10 points.
In options segment, build-up was scattered between 15800-16100 call and 15600-15800 put options. Maximum open interest in the
monthly series is placed at 16000 call and 15800 put options.
It was indeed a volatile week for our market, we saw index sliding below 15600 levels and smart recovery in next two sessions led
closing above 15850 mark. In F&O space, we hardly saw fresh build-up in both the indices; the open interest reduction was seen
especially in banking index wherein OI plunged 12.59%. In F&O space, we saw decent writing in 15800 put strike; resulting highest
open interest shifting to 15800 from 15500. Considering the short covering seen in index futures segment and writing in ATM puts, it
looks market may continue to strengthen in the coming week. Hence, traders are advised trading with positive biasness and should
prefer trading individual counters.
.
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Scrip
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
NATIONALUM 95268000 45.45 82.70 (6.34)
NMDC
95086400
24
.58
173.90
(3.07)
RAMCOCEM
2237200
22.36
1097.10
(2.91)
HDFCBANK
30906150
20.41
1445.50
(5.29)
TVSMOTOR
6666800
18.11
581.55
(5.20)
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
JUBLFOOD 1877500 27.66 3564.25 12.90
ICICIPRULI
7516500
20.37
645.85
2.59
BERGEPAINT
3936900
20.02
856.75
1.40
NESTLEIND
243550
15.54
18115.20
2.54
APOLLOHOSP
2318250
14.57
3930.15
3.57
3
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| July 23, 2021
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn – 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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For Derivative Queries E-mail: [email protected]
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelbroking.com