1
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| April 23, 2021
Bulls continue to show some resilience, all eyes on 14200 – 14150
Sensex (47878) / Nifty (14341)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
Similar to previous week, the markets once again surprised everyone with a huge downside gap on Monday. It seemed as if we were
completely decoupled with the global peers as the weak opening had nothing to do with the global cues. Since, we are battling with
the mounting concerns over COVID-19 cases in our country; markets are having a kneejerk reaction to this. In the initial trades, the
selling augmented to challenge the 14200 mark. Fortunately, market saw some buying interest at lower levels as we did not spend
much time below this key support. Similar sort of resilience was being witnessed throughout the remaining part of the week to trim
some portion of losses.
Markets are completely clueless which way to move in the near term. At higher levels, we are facing some pressure as the battle
continues with respect to the pandemic and on the lower side; bulls are clearly not willing to give up. Hence, it has become very
difficult to take any kind of directional call on the market. As far as our recent stance is concerned, we have been quite cautious on
the market and despite Nifty still holding on to a key support zone of 14200 14150, we continue to advocate caution till the time
some important levels are not surpassed. For Nifty, the immediate resistance zone can be seen around 14575 14650, where a
sustainable move beyond 14650 would negate the possibility of further correction to resume the upward trajectory. On the flip side,
all eyes on 14200 14150 and the more it gets challenged, the higher it creates the possibility of breaching it. Below this, Nifty
opens up the downside zone of 14000 – 13700.
Ideally, the way market is attracting buying interest at the support zone, we should have considered this as an accumulation. But
there are a couple of observations that are holding us back and they are, 1) the banking index slipped below its rock solid support of
32400 and till the time it does not reclaim 32500 33000 convincingly, it is likely to be the major dragger. 2) Importantly, the overall
positioning of the ‘NIFTY MIDCAP50’ index is completely overlooked by the market participants in general. Last week, we had
highlighted about the breakdown from ‘Head and Shoulder’ pattern in this index and the weekly chart too confirmed a Lower Top
Lower Bottom’ for the first time in this entire marathon rally started last April. All these factors do not bode well for the bulls and
hence, till the time we do not see negation of these unfavorable developments, one should continue to remain light on positions.
2
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| April 23, 2021
Wait for range breakout on either side
Nifty spot closed at 14341.35 this week, against a close of 14617.85 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.38 to 1.27.
The annualized Cost of Carry is negative at 1.17%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 4.08%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a discount of 2.75 points against a premium of 27.85 points to its spot. Next month future is
trading at a premium of 52.60 points.
In options segment, we witnessed decent open interest addition in 14500-15000 calls while 14300-14000 puts too added fresh open
interest. Maximum build-up in the monthly series in nearby strikes is placed in 14500 call and 14000 put options.
Nifty started the week with a gap down on worries of rising Covid cases in the country. However, we witnessed swings within a
broad range throughout the week where 14200-14150 range acted as a demand zone whereas 14450-14500 acted as a supply
zone. Compared to last week, we saw some unwinding of open interest in both the indices while Nifty futures erased all its
premiums. FII’s sold equities in cash segment throughout the week while in derivatives segment, they lightened up their long as well
as short positions of index futures. The stronger hands have not shown any buying interest during the week while they have
lightened some of their derivatives positions ahead of the expiry. The options data hints at a broad trading range of 14000-14500 for
Nifty. As of now, we expect the index to trade within this range and any move beyond these boundaries would then lead to a
directional move.
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
ULTRACEMCO 2644400 34.37 6077.30 (9.84)
ESCORTS
2450800
29.69
1138.00
(8.68)
RBLBANK
29258100
15.74
178.25
(5.24)
HCLTECH
20318900
13.62
950.95
(5.89)
BANKBARODA
142295400
13.60
63.05
(6.59)
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Pric
e
Chg(%)
PVR 2866908 29.39 1118.40 7.08
ICICIPRULI
10144500
21.61
512.15
12.97
CADILAHC
17584600
20.63
572.30
8.10
APOLLOHOSP
2213500
9.77
3206.00
4.66
MUTHOOTFIN
2975250
8.18
1200.30
4.30
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For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| April 23, 2021
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn – 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelbroking.com
For Derivative Queries E-mail: [email protected]
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Technical and Derivative
s Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelbroking.com