August 22, 2015
Technical Picks |
Range broken on the downside - weakness on the cards
Sensex (27366) / Nifty (8300)
The opening session of the week on Monday began on a flat
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
note, in-line with muted global cues. The Nifty consolidated in
a narrow range without any clear direction throughout the first
half of the week. However, global uncertainties led to a
breakdown from the small trading range of 8531 - 8428 on
the Nifty; this was followed by a massive gap down opening on
Friday, well below the near term support of 8315. A modest
recovery towards the fag end of Friday's session trimmed some
of the losses for the day; the Nifty closed the day at the 8300
mark with a cut of 0.87% over Thursday's closing. On the sectoral
Source: Falcon
front, the Consumer Durables, FMCG and Healthcare stocks
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
bucked the bearish trend throughout the week; whereas, the
Metal, Oil & Gas, Banking, Auto and Capital Goods sectors
witnessed a sharp cut. The Nifty ended the week with a loss of
2.57% over the previous week's closing.
Pattern formation:
The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at
27812 / 8421 and 25915 / 7807 levels, respectively.
The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at
27848 / 8450 and 27840 / 8427 levels, respectively.
Source: Falcon
downside, an immediate correction towards
8100
Future outlook
(78.60% Fibonacci retracement level of the up move from
The Nifty had been trading within a range of 8650 - 8300
7940.30 to 8654.75) on the Nifty cannot be ruled out. As of
since the last four weeks. However, once again, global concerns
now, we are not sure whether this level would get breached.
frightened our markets and the Indian Rupee (INR) hit a fresh
We would rather closely observe market movement and see if
two-year low. As a result, we witnessed a sharp correction on
the Nifty reaches the 8100 mark. If pessimism continues to
Thursday, followed by a gap down opening on Friday, leading
persist and the Nifty sneaks below this important support level,
the Nifty well below the 8300 mark. A breach of an important
then we may see a continuation of this corrective move towards
support with a gap is known as a 'Breakaway Gap', which is a
the 7940 level. At this juncture, it's advisable to exercise caution
sign of weakness. Thus, we are of the view that the earlier trading
and remain light on positions.
range of 8650 - 8300 has now shifted lower, wherein
8350 - 8420 would act a strong hurdle on the upside. On the
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
1
INF010994639
NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635
Membership
numbers:
BSE
028/NSE:09946
August 22, 2015
Technical Picks |
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
26,567
26,966
27,531
27,931
28,496
NIFTY
8,046
8,173
8,352
8,479
8,657
BANKNIFTY
17,211
17,634
18,265
18,688
19,320
ACC
1,315
1,361
1,408
1,453
1,500
AMBUJACEM
212
219
229
236
246
ASIANPAINT
838
862
889
913
939
AXISBANK
480
502
537
560
595
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,269
2,337
2,454
2,522
2,639
BANKBARODA
173
186
201
215
230
BHEL
231
240
252
261
273
BPCL
831
860
890
919
948
BHARTIARTL
335
352
376
393
416
BOSCH LIMITED
22,693
23,408
24,505
25,220
26,317
CAIRN
125
133
145
154
165
CIPLA
631
664
705
738
778
COALINDIA
321
335
359
373
397
DRREDDY
4,075
4,160
4,244
4,328
4,412
GAIL
280
296
321
337
363
GRASIM
3,476
3,551
3,655
3,730
3,835
HCLTECH
910
937
968
995
1,025
HDFCBANK
1,021
1,041
1,071
1,092
1,122
HDFC
1,157
1,193
1,250
1,285
1,342
HEROMOTOCO
2,418
2,487
2,603
2,672
2,789
HINDALCO
76
81
87
92
99
HINDUNILVR
840
862
882
904
924
ICICIBANK
279
288
297
306
315
IDEA
144
148
156
160
168
INDUSINDBK
845
875
923
953
1,002
INFY
1,083
1,116
1,151
1,185
1,220
ITC
301
316
324
338
346
KOTAKBANK
653
670
698
715
742
LT
1,667
1,703
1,762
1,798
1,857
LUPIN
1,660
1,769
1,856
1,965
2,052
M&M
1,235
1,279
1,332
1,375
1,428
MARUTI
4,433
4,500
4,596
4,664
4,760
NMDC
87
90
95
98
102
NTPC
117
120
125
128
133
ONGC
240
248
259
267
278
POWERGRID
129
131
135
138
142
PNB
136
148
164
176
192
RELIANCE
855
881
924
950
993
SBIN
239
253
271
285
302
SUNPHARMA
850
894
930
974
1,010
TCS
2,597
2,636
2,695
2,734
2,793
TATAMOTORS
306
319
341
354
375
TATAPOWER
64
66
68
70
72
TATASTEEL
218
228
241
251
265
TECHM
531
547
561
578
592
ULTRACEMCO
2,771
2,872
3,027
3,128
3,283
VEDANTA
84
89
99
104
113
WIPRO
552
564
576
588
600
YESBANK
601
647
725
770
848
ZEEL
352
368
393
408
434
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
2
INF010994639
NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635
Membership
numbers:
BSE
028/NSE:09946
August 22, 2015
Derivatives Review |
Avoid bottom fishing in middle of this global sell-off
Nifty spot closed at 8299.95 this week against a close of 8518.55 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.00 to 0.88
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 4.69%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 10.50%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has decreased from 1.00 to 0.88 levels mainly due to
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has increased from 14.40% to
open interest addition in call options. Huge buildup was visible
15.35%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 17.46% and
in 8300-8500 call options last week which is mix of long and
that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 26.13%. Liquid counters having
shorts. On the other hand in put options good amount of OI
very high HV are AMTEKAUTO, KSCL, BANKBARODA, ACC
addition was seen in 7900-8100 strikes followed by significant
and CANBK. Stocks where HV are on lower side are COLPAL,
unwinding in 8200-8500 put options. Maximum buildup in
PAGEIND, TVSMOTOR, M&MFIN and FEDERALBNK.
current series is seen in 8600 call & 8200 put options.
Open Interest Analysis
Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total open interest of market has increased from
Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 6.40 points
`2,23,983/- cr. to `2,59,696/- cr. Stock futures open interest
against a premium of 24.15 points to its spot. Next month
has increased from `67,297/- cr. to `70,695/- cr. Liquid
future is trading with premium of 46.80 points. Liquid counters
counters names which added significant positions last week
where CoC is high are VEDL, JINDALSTEL, ZEEL, DLF and PNB.
are AXISBANK, DLF, INDUSINDBK, ITC and PNB. On the other
Stocks with negative CoC are NMDC, GAIL, MARUTI,
hand unwinding was visible in counters like GRASIM, TECHM,
POWERGRID and IDFC.
BPCL, LUPIN and TATAPOWER.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip : LT
CMP : `1742.85
Lot Size : 125
Exercise Date (F & O) :
27th. Aug 2015
View: Mildly Bearish
Strategy: Long Put
Expected Payoff
Buy/Sell
Qty
Scrip
Strike
Series
Option
Buy/Sell Rate
Closing Price
Expected
Price
Type
(`)
(`)
Profit/Loss
BUY
125
LT
1700
AUG
PE
12.00
1575
`113.00
BEP
-
`1688
1615
`73.00
1655
`33.00
Max. Risk: `1,500/-
Max. Profit: Unlimited
If LT closes on or above strike price on expiry.
If LT continues to move below BEP.
1695
(`7.00)
1735
(`12.00)
NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if LT moves in favorable direction and time value decays.
1775
(`12.00)
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
3
INF010994639
NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635
Membership
numbers:
BSE
028/NSE:09946
Weekly
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
Disclaimer
Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited,
Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and MCX Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and Portfolio
Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is a registered entity with
SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number INH000000164. Angel or its
associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market. Angel
or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company
covered by Analyst. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of
securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. Angel/analyst has not served as an officer, director or
employee of company covered by Analyst and has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock’s price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company’s
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources
believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for
general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss
or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited
has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation
or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited
endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other
reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed
or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or
in connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important ‘Stock Holding Disclosure’ report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the
latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may have
investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)