December 19, 2015
Technical Picks |
7540 acted as a sheet anchor - range bound action likely
Sensex (25519) / Nifty (7762)
Trading for the week began on a soft note on Monday owing to
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
negative cues from the global bourses. However, the Nifty
managed to give a smart recovery from the morning's low. This
momentum continued for the next three trading sessions of the
week and in the process, the index tested the 7850 mark. During
the week, the much expected rate hike by the US Fed finally got
through. On Friday, due to some profit booking, the Nifty
trimmed some of its intra-week gains and eventually concluded
the week slightly below the 7800 mark. All sectoral indices
traded with a positive bias almost throughout the week, amongst
Source: Falcon
which the Metal, Consumer Durables and Oil & Gas stocks
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
were the major gainers. The Nifty ended the week with a modest
gain of 1.99% over its previous week's close.
Pattern formation:
The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' for the Sensex/
Nifty are placed at 26321 / 7984 and 25973 / 7842 levels,
respectively.
The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' for the Sensex/
Nifty are placed at 25623 / 7986 and 26340 / 7989 levels,
respectively.
Source: Falcon
now depicts a bullish 'Piercing Pattern' along with the positive
Future outlook
placement of momentum oscillators. Going forward, if the Nifty
The concluded week was an eventful one, both globally as well
manages to sustain above the 7800 mark then we may witness
as on the domestic front. After falling more than 400 points
a continuation of this move towards 7970 - 8050 levels. On
from the recent high of 7979.30, the Nifty gave a v-shaped
the flipside, 7710 - 7620 are now seen as important support
recovery towards the 7850 mark. In our previous report, we
levels. We believe that the index may remain range bound in
had mentioned about the strong support standing at the
the forthcoming week and thus, due to lack of trade set up in
September low of 7539.50. In-line with our expectation, the
the index, it's advisable to focus on individual stocks. We continue
Nifty's decline was arrested at the 7551.05 mark on Monday.
to recommend trading with a proper exit strategy and avoiding
Also, the 'Two Points Positive Divergence' in the daily 'RSI'
undue risks.
momentum oscillator played its part as the Nifty surged nearly
300 points from the low in such a short span. The weekly chart
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December 19, 2015
Technical Picks |
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
24,443
24,981
25,406
25,944
26,370
NIFTY
7,420
7,591
7,722
7,893
8,024
NIFTY BANK
15,934
16,264
16,518
16,848
17,102
ACC
1,289
1,319
1,342
1,372
1,395
ADANIPORTS
231
246
254
268
276
AMBUJACEM
184
192
197
205
210
ASIANPAINT
840
860
873
893
906
AXISBANK
421
427
435
441
449
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,296
2,383
2,462
2,549
2,629
BANKBARODA
148
154
159
164
169
BHEL
161
164
167
170
173
BPCL
864
883
900
918
935
BHARTIARTL
296
307
316
328
336
BOSCH
17,337
17,776
18,444
18,883
19,551
CAIRN
117
124
129
135
140
CIPLA
623
632
641
651
659
COALINDIA
299
308
314
322
328
DRREDDY
2,884
2,929
2,996
3,042
3,109
GAIL
320
330
345
354
369
GRASIM
3,512
3,617
3,691
3,796
3,870
HCLTECH
807
826
846
865
885
HDFC
1,021
1,047
1,066
1,092
1,111
HDFCBANK
1,118
1,171
1,210
1,263
1,301
HEROMOTOCO
2,437
2,540
2,604
2,707
2,770
HINDALCO
73
76
79
83
85
HINDUNILVR
787
822
849
884
911
ICICIBANK
237
244
249
256
262
IDEA
126
131
133
138
140
INDUSINDBK
882
909
930
957
978
INFY
1,019
1,051
1,080
1,113
1,142
ITC
311
314
319
322
328
KOTAKBANK
647
675
690
718
733
LT
1,243
1,265
1,287
1,309
1,331
LUPIN
1,660
1,722
1,785
1,847
1,909
M&M
1,139
1,191
1,248
1,300
1,357
MARUTI
4,367
4,494
4,598
4,724
4,828
NTPC
127
132
135
139
142
ONGC
204
214
221
230
237
POWERGRID
123
129
133
139
143
PNB
118
120
122
125
127
RELIANCE
915
954
984
1,023
1,053
SBIN
219
223
228
231
236
SUNPHARMA
729
760
784
815
840
TCS
2,283
2,350
2,397
2,464
2,512
TATAMOTORS
349
364
375
390
402
TATAPOWER
59
62
64
67
69
TATASTEEL
231
243
251
263
270
TECHM
498
511
529
542
561
ULTRACEMCO
2,702
2,758
2,832
2,889
2,962
VEDL
79
82
85
87
90
WIPRO
539
546
558
566
578
YESBANK
645
682
705
741
764
ZEEL
387
400
409
422
431
Technical Research Team
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December 19, 2015
Derivatives Review |
Don't be in hurry to short this market
Nifty spot closed at 7761.95 this week against a close of 7610.45 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.76 to 0.78 levels
and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 10.18%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 1.71%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has increased from 0.76 to 0.78 levels mainly due to
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has decreased from 15.63% to
open interest addition in put options. In call options, 8000 strike
12.57%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 15.91% and
added some OI. While in put options, 7700 and 7800 strikes
that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 20.41%. Liquid counters having
added decent amount of buildup. Maximum buildup in current
very high HV are M&M, NMDC, DHFL, TATAPOWER and
series is seen in 8000 call & 7500 put options.
TECHM. Stocks where HV are on lower side are CIPLA, GAIL,
BANKINDIA, DRREDDY and HAVELLS.
Open Interest Analysis
Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total open interest of market has increased from
Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 28.15 points
`2,26,596/- cr. to `2,41,019/- cr. Stock futures open interest
against a premium of 17.45 points to its spot. Next month
has decreased from `62,986/- cr. to `66,707/- cr. Liquid
future is trading with premium of 60.55 points. Liquid counters
counters names which added significant positions last week
where CoC is high are HINDALCO, SBIN, VEDL, LUPIN and
are PNB, HINDUNILVR, WIPRO, VEDL and SBIN. On the other
M&M. Stocks with negative CoC are NMDC, TATASTEEL,
hand unwinding was visible in counters like HDFCBANK,
ICICIBANK, BHARTIARTL and TCS.
ONGC, HEROMOTOCO, HINDALCO and INDUSINDBK.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip : RELIANCE
CMP : `995.95
Lot Size : 500
Exercise Date (F & O) :
31st Dec 2015
View: Mildly Bullish
Strategy: Ratio Bull Call Spread
Expected Payoff
Buy/Sell
Qty
Scrip
Strike
Series
Option
Buy/Sell Rate
Closing Price
Expected
Price
Type
(`)
(`)
Profit/Loss
BUY
500
RELIANCE
1000
DEC
CE
12.00
965
0.00
SELL
1000
RELIANCE
1020
DEC
CE
6.00
985
0.00
BEP
-
`1,040/-
1005
`5.00
Max. Risk: Unlimited
Max. Profit: `10,000/-
1025
`15.00
If RELIANCE continues to move above BE
If RELIANCE closes at `1,020 level on expiry.
1045
(`5.00)
NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if RELIANCE moves in favorable direction and time value decays.
1065
(`25.00)
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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)