Technical Picks | November 19, 2016
Nifty hovering around 200 SMA - refrain from shorting
Sensex (26150) / Nifty (8074)
The Nifty index started the trading of the week with a
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
marginal negative opening on Tuesday. The bears continued
their dominance and the index ended well inside the
negative territory, near the '200 SMA' on daily charts. On
Wednesday, it opened with an upside gap, taking positive
global cues. However, post the gap up opening, the index
got corrected throughout the session to end near the lowest
point of the day. Although, the last two trading sessions
noted narrow range candles; the market breadth and the
stock specific momentum clearly indicated anxiety amongst
participants. Finally, the week ended with the index losing
2.68 percent over its previous week's close.
Key Moving Averages:
Source: Company, Angel Research
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
27560
/
8500 and
26482 / 8089 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
27175
/
8398 and
27440 / 8464 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
Market has shown its darker side as lot of participants were
caught on the wrong foot over the last 5-6 trading sessions
during the week. Our benchmark index (Nifty) has displayed
complete divergence with U.S. bourses, who managed to
continue its winning streak after the Presidential election’s
Source: Company, Angel Research
outcome. With reference to our earlier articles, this
downward move was not so surprising, as we had clearly
The important reason behind
this hypothesis is the
mentioned about the falling ‘RSI-Smoothened’ values on
placement of ‘RSI-Smoothened’ on daily chart below the
weekly chart.
11 mark. Historically speaking, whenever this indicator falls
Now, at this juncture, although the overall momentum is
to such a lower level, the market tends to give a sharp
negative, we do not want to participate on the short side.
bounce in the near term and we expect the index to bounce
Technically speaking, the Nifty is hovering around the ‘200
on the upside towards 8280 - 8400 levels. Traders need to
SMA’ since last four days and is currently a tad below the
understand that the market has undergone a decent price-
average. However, it’s quite normal in case of such a long
wise correction and now, we expect a time-correction within
term moving average. This level coincides with the ’89 EMA’
the broad range for some time.
on weekly chart and hence,
8050-8000 should be
considered as a strong support zone. We advise traders to
avoid shorting at current level and in fact, aggressive traders
can consider this dip as a buying opportunity by keeping a
strict stop loss below 8000 on a sustainable basis. In case of
breaking 8000, we do not expect major corrections in the
market as we see a possibility of false breakdown.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | November 19, 2016
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
25,652
25,901
26,355
26,605
27,059
NIFTY
7,897
7,985
8,137
8,226
8,377
NIFTY BANK
18,275
18,617
19,239
19,582
20,204
ACC
1,203
1,256
1,344
1,397
1,485
ADANIPORTS
243
252
266
276
290
AMBUJACEM
170
184
206
221
242
ASIANPAINT
814
861
916
963
1,018
AUROPHARMA
644
683
737
776
830
AXISBANK
449
461
482
494
515
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,429
2,502
2,583
2,656
2,738
BANKBARODA
160
169
174
183
188
BHEL
127
131
135
138
142
BPCL
602
622
642
662
681
BHARTIARTL
283
293
304
315
326
INFRATEL
332
342
357
368
383
BOSCH
18,096
18,662
19,471
20,036
20,845
CIPLA
512
531
548
568
584
COALINDIA
286
296
313
323
340
DRREDDY
3,024
3,120
3,237
3,333
3,450
EICHERMOT
18,681
20,237
21,085
22,641
23,490
GAIL
405
416
431
442
458
GRASIM
737
778
839
880
941
HCLTECH
711
737
763
789
815
HDFCBANK
1,157
1,184
1,237
1,264
1,316
HDFC
1,171
1,210
1,240
1,280
1,310
HEROMOTOCO
2,768
2,852
2,933
3,017
3,099
HINDALCO
150
157
169
177
189
HINDUNILVR
768
785
801
818
833
ICICIBANK
251
258
269
276
288
IDEA
67
69
71
73
75
INDUSINDBK
1,002
1,052
1,126
1,176
1,250
INFY
880
900
928
948
977
ITC
214
221
234
241
254
KOTAKBANK
736
757
788
810
840
LT
1,320
1,345
1,376
1,402
1,433
LUPIN
1,349
1,384
1,425
1,459
1,500
M&M
1,120
1,180
1,229
1,289
1,338
MARUTI
4,646
4,799
4,959
5,111
5,271
NTPC
145
152
156
163
167
ONGC
260
268
277
285
294
POWERGRID
176
184
190
198
204
RELIANCE
962
975
987
1,000
1,013
SBIN
263
269
277
284
291
SUNPHARMA
639
664
685
710
730
TCS
1,972
2,048
2,129
2,205
2,286
TATAMTRDVR
268
283
302
318
336
TATAMOTORS
434
453
469
487
504
TATAPOWER
66
68
70
72
74
TATASTEEL
358
371
395
408
432
TECHM
415
430
443
458
470
ULTRACEMCO
3,088
3,240
3,428
3,580
3,768
WIPRO
420
428
441
450
463
YESBANK
1,093
1,137
1,177
1,221
1,262
ZEEL
412
429
460
477
507
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | November 19, 2016
No signs of reversal, stay light
Nifty spot closed at 8074.10 this week, against a close of 8296.30 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 0.84 to 0.74
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 0.45%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 4.84%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 0.60
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 31.65 points to its spot. Next
UNIONBANK
14740000
(1.02)
155.80
9.91
month future is trading with a premium of 47.15 points.
BANKBARODA
43991500
19.01
177.10
9.76
PCR-OI has decreased from 0.84 to 0.74 levels. In call
PFC
19110000
(4.47)
125.10
5.61
options, 8100-8400 strikes were active and they also added
BHARATFORG
4642200
(2.51)
908.50
5.55
significant build-up. On the other hand in put options, we saw
ENGINERSIN
5519500
(20.19)
283.50
5.49
some build-up in
7800 and
8000 strikes, followed by
unwinding in 8200-8500 put options. Highest open interest in
CANBK
11601000
5.63
326.90
4.62
November series is placed at 8500 call and 8000 put options.
PETRONET
6268500
12.52
377.35
4.51
Stock that added longs last week are BANKBARODA, CANBK,
MINDTREE
3706800
(0.93)
441.95
4.46
PETRONET, NHPC and POWERGRID. While, fresh shorts were
visible in PCJEWELLER, SRF, AMBUJACEM, INDUSINDBK and
ULTRACEMCO. Liquid counters with higher CoC are
Weekly OI losers
HINDALCO, HDFCBANK, BHEL, AXISBANK and GAIL. Stocks
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
with negative CoC are PCJEWELLER, JUSTDIAL, TVSMOTOR,
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
SAIL and BATAINDIA.
PCJEWELLER
1203000
27.50
337.45
(17.53)
JETAIRWAYS
6227000
(0.18)
359.75
(15.52)
Nifty continued to remain under pressure last week. We
witness good amount of long unwinding and fresh short
SRF
561500
21.54
1430.45
(15.39)
formation in Index Futures. While in options front, some long
VOLTAS
3910000
7.77
293.50
(12.06)
positions were formed in puts, followed by writing in out-the-
INDIACEM
22393000
10.50
116.85
(11.71)
money call options. At current juncture, Nifty has a strong
support around 7950-8000 levels but looking at the above
VEDL
41916000
(9.55)
203.85
(10.90)
data, we don’t see any signs of reversal yet. Thus, we would
CAIRN
26456500
10.06
227.25
(10.21)
suggest trades to avoid aggressive trades unless we see any
TATASTEEL
18986000
(5.91)
385.70
(9.99)
meaningful change in data.
Weekly change in OI
70,000
Call
Put
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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