For Private Circulation Only

Technical and Derivatives Review

| March 19, 2021

Nifty recovers from key support of 14330

Sensex (49858) / Nifty (14744)

Source: Trading View

Future outlook

This week we started the proceedings on a flat note on Monday as there was no major trigger on the domestic as well as global

front. However as the week progressed, market started drifting lower. The real momentum was seen in the latter half as we saw

Nifty sliding below 14400 on Friday. But on the same day, we witnessed a smart recovery in the market to not only pare down all

losses but also to close with more than 150 points gains. Due to this tail end surge, the Nifty was well off its morning’s low to reclaim

the 14700 mark.

Since last few days, key indices were range bound but if we meticulously observe the price action of individual stocks (especially

from the F&O universe), some sort of distribution was clearly visible. This week’s decline in Nifty and other key indices in the latter

half was the outcome of the overall selling happening in the individual stocks. In the process, the index managed to fill the gap of

14470 – 14330 created on the following day of Union budget (February 02, 2021). Since market was a bit oversold, some sort of

rebound was evident; but the kind of v-shaped recovery we witnessed, was clearly unexpected to us. Hence, although our recent

cautious stance has played out well, we need to see how market behaves in the first half of the forthcoming week. On the higher

side, 14875 – 15050 are the levels to watch out for; whereas on the lower side, 14450 – 14350 becomes a key support zone. The

major corrective move is possible only below 14330, until then expect the index to remain in a broad range.

Traders are advised to be stock specific for a while and till the time, Nifty does not surpass 15050, we are likely to see some

pressure at higher levels. Hence, one should remain light and trade with proper risk management as we step into the monthly expiry

week.

For Private Circulation Only

Technical and Derivatives Review

| March 19, 2021

14300-15000 is the broad range now

Nifty spot closed at 14744.00 this week, against a close of 15030.95 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.02 to 1.20.

The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 5.14%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has decreased by 10.34%.

Derivatives View

Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 12.45 points against a premium of 5.45 points to its spot. Next month future is

trading at a premium of 88.20 points.

In options segment, the build-up was scattered between 14500-15300 call options. On the other side, 14400-14700 put options

added fresh build-up; followed by unwinding in 15000 strike. Maximum build-up in monthly series is now placed in 15000 call and

14000 put options.

During the week, we had almost flat start and then saw follow-up selling to sneak below 14750. As the week progressed, the selling

pressure accelerated to correct below support of 14500 and on Friday plunged to 14350. However, smart recovery on the same day

recouped all the intraday losses and in fact Nifty managed to conclude almost towards 14750. In F&O space, the fall seen in Nifty

was mainly due to long unwinding and banking index added shorts. On Friday, we saw decent unwinding in 14700-15000 call

options; whereas, fresh writing was seen in 14400-14500 put strikes. Now considering the overall F&O activities; we believe 14300-

14400 may act as a demand zone; whereas, 14900-15000 is the immediate hurdle now.

Weekly change in OI

Short Formation

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

RAMCOCEM 2026400 39.99 953.05 (5.27)

ICICIPRULI

9829500

26.78

431.25

(6.79)

VOLTAS

3306000

26.67

983.55

(7.01)

JINDALSTEL

29465000

13.28

13.70

(1.41)

PETRONET

20160000

11.89

225.15

(7.44)

Long Formation

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

COFORGE 503250 48.12 2975.65 8.95

LALPATHLAB

196500

40.61

2521.90

7.83

CHOLAFIN

5392500

23.89

552.45

3.53

INDUSTOWER

1925200

5.97

263.55

3.88

GRASIM

17729850

4.21

1416.00

2.49

For Private Circulation Only

Technical and Derivatives Review

| March 19, 2021

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn – 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com

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For Derivative Queries E-mail: [email protected]

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Technical and Derivatives Team:

Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com

Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com

Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelbroking.com

Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelbroking.com