1
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| February 19, 2021
Market snaps weekly winning streak, ends below 15000
Sensex (50890) / Nifty (14982)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
After a brief pause in the previous week, our markets resumed their upward momentum on Monday on the back of global optimism
and encouraging macro numbers. The upward move continued on the following day as well to clock fresh record high of 15431.75.
However, at higher levels, most of the heavyweight counters started experiencing some profit booking, which extended as the week
progressed. In this process, the Nifty eventually sneaked below the psychological mark of 15000 on Friday to snap the weekly
winning streak.
For the major part of the week, the market has been experiencing some pressure at higher levels and this is what we have been
alluding to in our intra-week commentaries. Technically speaking, this week’s high precisely coincided around the crucial resistance
zone of 15380 15500 (which is the 161% ‘Golden Ratio’ of the entire fall from Jan’20 highs to March’20 lows). Hence, some sort of
pause around it was quite evident. Although, market has come off a bit in last three sessions, structurally there is no major damage
done on the charts. It should merely be considered as a profit booking as of now. Going ahead, we need to keep a close eye on how
Nifty behaves around its key support zone of 14750 14550. Only a sustainable breach of these crucial levels should be considered
as a short term trend reversal. On the flipside, 15100 15200 would be seen as immediate hurdles and any bounce towards this is
most likely to get sold into.
During the week, some of the larger private banking names cooled off a bit after recent marathon rally. The broader market too saw
some profit booking towards the fag end. The real action was seen in some of the smaller PSU banking stocks as well as few
underperforming marquee PSU counters from the energy space. The coming week is likely to be actioned packed; because markets
are placed interestingly going into the monthly expiry. Traders are advised to stay light and should avoid aggressive bets on the long
side.
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For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| February 19, 2021
No meaningful change in F&O space
Nifty spot closed at 14981.75 this week, against a close of 15163.30 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.38 to 1.19.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 2.56%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has increased by 3.25%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 5.25 points against a discount of 1.85 points to its spot. Next month future is
trading at a premium of 43.65 points.
In options segment, the build-up was scattered between 15000-16000 call and 14500-15000 put options. Maximum open interest
for the monthly series is placed at 15500 call and 14500 put options.
We had a cheerful start of the week tad above 15250 mark. Follow-up buying interest led Nifty hitting fresh record high of 15431.75
on Tuesday. However, these gains were short lived as decent profit-booking was thereafter for to sneak below 14900 on Friday. In
F&O space, we witnessed some fresh selling in Nifty and long unwinding was seen in banking index. FIIs remained net buyers in
equities and their overall activity in index futures remained insignificant. Their index futures ‘Long Short Ratio’ is at 61%, which still
indicates they hold maximum longs in system. At present, 14900-15000 is an immediate support zone and follow-up activity may
dictate further trend.
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
AMARAJABAT 4480000 84.97 874.35 (10.90)
LUPIN 9589700 30.49 1021.90 (3.17)
GLENMARK 6037500 24.91 481.75 (4.64)
TCS 7860600 23.86 3080.20 (3.81)
PFC 35947600 20.89 124.60 (1.74)
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Pric
e
Chg(%)
APOLLOHOSP 1930500 32.95 2933.45 6.48
CHOLAFIN 6202500 26.20 528.40 12.38
TATACHEM 10446000 21.49 620.50 10.29
POWERGRID 19460000 18.31 232.70 9.40
HINDPETRO 40680900 17.06 243.95 8.59
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For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| February 19, 2021
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn – 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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For Derivative Queries E-mail: [email protected]
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Technical and Der
ivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]ng.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jai[email protected].com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosl[email protected]ng.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]gelbroking.com