Technical Picks | June 18, 2016
8060 now a sheet anchor, use dips to initiate longs
Sensex (26626) / Nifty (8170)
Our domestic market started the proceedings for the week
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
on Monday with a downside gap. The Nifty failed to gain
strength in the course of trading during the day and ended
the session on a negative note. However, in the following
session, the index managed to find support near the 8060
mark and bounced back to trim all of its previous day’s
losses. On Wednesday, the bulls once again came back
smartly and rallied the Nifty to reclaim the 8200 mark.
Thereafter, tracking negative global cues, the index traded
with a mildly negative bias during the remaining part of the
week and concluded precisely at the previous week’s close.
Among sectoral indices, the Nifty PSU Bank index and the
Nifty Realty index were the outperformers, which added
4.54% and 3.06% respectively, over their previous week’s
Source: Company, Angel Research
closing.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
Key Moving Averages:
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
25574
/
7818 and
25645 / 7778 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
26371
/
8084 and
25616 / 7823 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
Our markets are clearly in a phase of consolidation since
the last three weeks, which was quite expected after a sharp
rally of nearly 600 points in a short span prior to it. During
Source: Company, Angel Research
the concluded week, we witnessed some profit booking
owing to weak global cues. But the overall correction in the
On the flipside, 8213 - 8280 are seen as immediate
Nifty vis-a-vis its other global peers was relatively far lesser,
hurdles. In the forthcoming week, traders across the globe
thereby indicating its outperformance. In the course of
would have a close watch on the ‘EU Referendum on Brexit’.
trading in the concluded week, we saw the index attempt to
Looking at the recent chart structure, we are of the opinion
breach the mentioned supports (in our previous weekly
that we may see very limited downside (7950 - 7900) even
report) which correspond with a couple of technical
in case of a negative outcome of the event. We maintain our
indicators such as the Daily ’20 EMA’ and the ‘Super Trend’
positive stance on the market and see the Nifty crossing its
placed around
8080
-
8060. But as expected, these
next swing high of 8336 quite soon. We would therefore
rendered strong support to the index; thus, going forward,
advise to use dips (if any) as a buying opportunity in the
we maintain our view that one should trade with a positive
current market scenario.
bias as long as the Nifty manages to hold the mentioned
support zone.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | June 18, 2016
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
26,057
26,341
26,547
26,832
27,037
NIFTY
8,000
8,085
8,149
8,234
8,298
NIFTY BANK
17,306
17,501
17,722
17,917
18,139
ACC
1,518
1,537
1,554
1,573
1,590
ADANIPORTS
192
200
206
214
220
AMBUJACEM
228
232
236
240
244
ASIANPAINT
954
977
996
1,019
1,037
AUROPHARMA
703
715
736
749
769
AXISBANK
506
517
526
536
546
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,520
2,551
2,581
2,611
2,641
BANKBARODA
137
144
149
155
160
BHEL
117
120
122
124
126
BPCL
962
983
1,002
1,023
1,042
BHARTIARTL
330
343
351
365
373
INFRATEL
302
320
353
371
403
BOSCH
20,853
21,464
21,812
22,424
22,772
CIPLA
455
470
482
497
509
COALINDIA
301
307
311
317
321
DRREDDY
2,928
2,965
3,037
3,075
3,147
EICHERMOT
18,032
18,405
18,651
19,025
19,271
GAIL
356
372
380
396
404
GRASIM
4,216
4,271
4,311
4,366
4,405
HCLTECH
730
742
753
765
777
HDFCBANK
1,130
1,150
1,164
1,184
1,198
HDFC
1,161
1,194
1,215
1,248
1,269
HEROMOTOCO
2,947
2,989
3,039
3,080
3,130
HINDALCO
108
113
117
122
126
HINDUNILVR
850
865
875
891
901
ICICIBANK
230
234
239
243
248
IDEA
97
99
101
103
105
INDUSINDBK
1,063
1,081
1,103
1,121
1,144
INFY
1,153
1,166
1,179
1,193
1,206
ITC
340
350
355
365
370
KOTAKBANK
732
741
755
764
778
LT
1,422
1,451
1,484
1,513
1,546
LUPIN
1,410
1,437
1,457
1,484
1,504
M&M
1,311
1,327
1,352
1,369
1,393
MARUTI
3,978
4,046
4,131
4,199
4,284
NTPC
144
148
151
156
159
ONGC
206
209
212
215
219
POWERGRID
147
152
155
160
163
RELIANCE
951
963
975
987
998
SBIN
192
203
211
221
229
SUNPHARMA
720
731
745
757
770
TCS
2,483
2,543
2,576
2,636
2,670
TATAMTRDVR
291
302
308
318
324
TATAMOTORS
427
445
456
475
485
TATAPOWER
69
72
74
77
80
TATASTEEL
314
320
327
332
339
TECHM
521
528
536
543
551
ULTRACEMCO
3,177
3,240
3,324
3,387
3,471
WIPRO
533
543
548
558
563
YESBANK
1,037
1,054
1,064
1,081
1,092
ZEEL
436
443
455
462
474
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | June 18, 2016
FIIs unwinding longs, wait for clear indication
Nifty spot closed at 8170.20 this week, against a close of 8170.05 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.12 to 1.11
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 1.44%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 17.39%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has decreased marginally from 1.12 to 1.11 levels.
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has increased from 14.64%
In call options, 8200-8300 strikes added some build-up.
to 16.44%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 15.36%
While in put options, some build-up was witness in 8000
and that for BANKNIFTY is at 20.62%. Liquid counters
strike price; followed by good amount of unwinding in
having very high HV are UNITECH, JPASSOCIAT,
8100 - 8200 put options. Maximum OI in current series is
INFRATEL, IGL and PNB. Stocks where HV are on lower
visible in 8300 call and 8000 put options.
side are HCLTECH, MCDOWELL-N, TATACHEM, BIOCON
and LUPIN.
Open Interest Analysis
Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total open interest of market has increased from
Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 4.20
`2,35,754/- cr. to `2,42,897/- cr. Stock futures open
points against a premium of 20.35 points to its spot. Next
interest has increased from `66,521/- cr. to `67,360/- cr.
month future is trading with premium of 29.00 points.
Large cap names which added significant positions last
Liquid counters where CoC is high are NTPC, GRASIM,
week are INFRATEL, HEROMOTOCO, AMBUJACEM,
BANKBARODA, BHEL and AXISBANK. Stocks with negative
DRREDDY and ICICIBANK. On the other hand unwinding
CoC are HINDUNILVR, JUSTDIAL, UCOBANK, HAVELLS
was visible in counters like HCLTECH, INDUSINDBK,
and CANBK.
WIPRO, GAIL and BPCL.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip: MARUTI
CMP : 4114.30
Lot Size : 125
Exercise Date (F & O) :
30th June 2016
View : Mildly Bullish
Strategy: Long Call Ladder
Expected Payoff
Buy/Sell
Qty
Scrip
Strike
Series
Option
Buy/Sell Rate
Closing Price
Expected
Price
Type
(`)
(`)
Profit/Loss
BUY
125
MARUTI
4100
JUNE
CE
90.00
3950
(`25.00)
SELL
125
MARUTI
4200
JUNE
CE
45.00
4050
(`25.00)
SELL
125
MARUTI
4300
JUNE
CE
20.00
LBEP - `4125/-
4150
`25.00
UBEP - `4375/-
4250
`75.00
Max. Risk: Unlimited
Max. Profit: `9,375/-
If MARUTI continues to move above UBEP.
If MARUTI closes between 4200-4300 levels on expiry.
4350
`25.00
Profit can be booked before expiry if MARUTI moves in favourable direction.
4450
(`75.00)
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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