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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 16, 2019
For Private Circulation Only
Consolidation continues, but good to see banking taking a charge
Sensex (40357) / Nifty (11895)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
In the week gone by, the price action can be precisely divided into two parts. First being the tentative one on the back of some worries in
HANG SENG (Hong Kong) and the latter half where markets looked to stabilise and then recovered completely. All in all, the truncated week
eventually concluded on a muted note. But since the technical analysis gives more weightage to the latest price development, the recovery
looks encouraging and we are standing at a crucial junction now.
Technically speaking, nothing much has changed from the previous week. The only additional observation would be the intra-week decline
towards the psychological level of 11800, which coincided with the ’89-EMA’ on hourly chart. So the index is on the recovery path now and
looking at the sheer outperformance from the banking space this week, we expect the Nifty to head towards 11950 – 12034 soon. In fact, if
the similar traction continues in marquee banking names, we will not be surprised to see index clocking record highs soon. Thus, the bias
remains positive and one should stick to a ‘Buy on decline’ strategy.
As far as support levels are concerned, this week’s low of 11802 followed by 11750 is likely to act as a sheet anchor for the forthcoming
week. Some of the other sectoral indices that attracted traders’ attention towards the fag end were the Pharma, Metal and Auto. Do watch
out on these baskets which are likely to provide better trading opportunities.
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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 16, 2019
For Private Circulation Only
Banking index continued adding long positions
Nifty spot closed at 11895.45 this week, against a close of 11908.15 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.26 to 1.39.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 11.13%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has decreased by 0.42%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 47.15 points against a premium of 37.20 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 89.25 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, the build-up was scattered between 11900-12200 call and 11500-11900
put options. Maximum open interest for the monthly series now stands at 12000 call and 11600 put option.
It was another week of consolidation for our market, we saw the benchmark index hovering in the range of merely 200 points in last
truncated week. The banking index continued its outperformance and managed to conclude the week almost a percent higher. As
far as open interest activities in index futures is concerned, we hardly saw any relevant OI change for Nifty; however, BankNifty
added decent long positions. In addition, decent amount of longs rolled over in November series are also intact in the system.
Considering the overall positions, we maintain our optimistic stance on the market and hence, would advise traders to trade with a
positive bias for the coming week.
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg (%)
CENTURYTEX 3143400 55.23 417.00 6.32
ASHOKLEY 94686000 47.53 79.35 4.75
INFRATEL 16264000 40.74 224.95 3.57
MGL 2456400 32.36 1005.55 3.30
BHARTIARTL 40411032 30.18 393.45 6.27
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg (%)
SIEMENS 2000350 28.11 1573.45 (4.25)
IDEA 700070000 22.86 3.70 (2.63)
SAIL 89085300 18.68 36.50 (5.68)
RBLBANK 13446300 18.10 318.45 (1.83)
APOLLOHOSP 1962500 17.94 1399.95 (1.39)
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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 16, 2019
For Private Circulation Only
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Technical Analyst ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelbroking.com