For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| July 16, 2021
16000 very much in sight now, banks need to chip in
Sensex (53140) / Nifty (15923)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
The proceedings for the week started on a pleasant note on Monday owing to slightly cheerful mood across the globe. The index
then slipped into a consolidation mode in the following hours. Benchmark index was quiet and the broader market was doing fairly
well; but all of a sudden post the mid-session, market took a nosedive and before anyone could realize, Nifty not only erased all
gains but also entered a negative territory in a flash. Fortunately 15650 once again acted as a sheet anchor to restrict the sudden
hiccup. During the remaining part of the week, Nifty continued its slow and steady march to conclude at the highest point. In the
process, it added nearly one and half a percent gains to the previous weekly close.
In last month or so, market made several attempts to go pass the level of 15910; but on every occasion, markets struggled at higher
levels. Finally on the weekly expiry day, this sturdy wall was breached and that too on a closing basis. In fact, although there was no
follow up buying seen, the week concluded at a new high which certainly bodes well for the bulls. Now, 16000 is merely a formality
and if there is no aberration on the global front over the weekend, we would see market reaching the millstone in the first half of
the forthcoming week itself. After this, 16200 is the next level to watch out for. We reiterate that if this assumption has to turn into
reality, the banking needs to contribute and hence, all eyes on BANKNIFTY. The moment it traverses the 36000 mark, we would see
NIFTY hastening beyond the magical figure of 16000. On the flipside, 15800 followed by 15630 are to be seen as key supports.
One needs to keep in mind that any sustainable move below 15630 would apply brakes on the ongoing optimism and we may then
see some corrective moves in the market in the short term. During the week, the stellar move in IT space lifted the markets higher
from the lower levels. Also, the broader end of the spectrum too did extremely well. One can certainly continue with a stock centric
approach and keep a tab on all the above mentioned scenarios.
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| July 16, 2021
FII’s Long Short Ratio rises to 68%
Nifty spot closed at 15923.40 this week, against a close of 15689.80 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.94 to 1.24.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 2.22%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 2.89%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 15.35 points against a premium of 32.65 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading at a premium of 55.40 points.
In options segment, 15700-15800 call options witnessed unwinding of positions while addition was seen is 16300 call. In put options,
decent open interest additions was seen in 15900-15800 strikes. Highest open interest for coming weekly series is placed at 16000
call and 15900 put options.
Post some hiccup on Monday, Nifty has slowly inched higher throughout the week and has ended the week above 15900. Nifty saw
some long formation towards the end of the week, while Bank Nifty initially witnessed short covering and then added some fresh
longs as well. FII’s were sellers in the cash segment, but they covered some of their shorts and added longs in the index futures
segment. Hence, their ‘Long Short Ratio’ increased to 68 percent from 55 percent last week. This bodes well for the bulls and hence,
should provide impetus to this week’s upmove. In options segment, 15800 call writers ran to cover their positions on Tuesday as
Nifty surpassed that hurdle, and now put writing was seen due to which 15800 is seen as immediate support. Traders are advised to
continue to trade with a positive bias for the coming week and review the situation if the market breaks 15800. On the higher side,
16000 and 16200-16300 are the probable targets to watch out for.
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Chg (%)
RBLBANK 30519600 31.58 214.90 (1.94)
Long Formation
Chg (%)
MINDTREE 2752000 54.54 2748.00 8.20
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| July 16, 2021
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Technical and Derivatives
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.cha[email protected]g.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jai[email protected].com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosl[email protected]ng.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst [email protected]gelbroking.com