Technical Picks |
May 16, 2015
Volatility spooked traders - Stay light on positions
Sensex (27324) / Nifty (8262)
Trading for the week began on an optimistic note on Monday
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
owing to favorable cues from other global bourses. However,
this optimism got reversed on Tuesday as the Nifty tumbled by
more than 200 points for the day. The remaining trading
sessions of the week witnessed a modest recovery in the market;
hence, the Nifty eventually managed to close a tad above the
8250 mark. On the sectoral front, the Banking, Consumer
Durables, Healthcare and Auto stocks were the major gainers;
whereas, the Realty and Metal stocks remained slightly under
pressure throughout the week. The Nifty ended the concluded
Source: Falcon
week with a gain of 0.86% over the previous week's closing.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
Pattern formation:
„ The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at
27968 / 8455 and 25233 / 7587 levels, respectively.
„ The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at
27436 / 8300 and 27914 / 8444 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
The concluded week was a roller coaster ride for many market
participants (especially the first half) as we witnessed massive
Source: Falcon
intraday movements amid enhanced volatility in the market.
The Nifty began trading for the week on a cheerful note and
Thus, traders should remain light on positions in the ongoing
then went on to test the mentioned resistance of 8350 during
bounce and should look for a shorting opportunity if and when
the early part of the week. In line with our expectations, the
the Nifty reaches the above mentioned resistance zone. On the
index faced a strong resistance around the level and was unable
flipside, the immediate support for the index is seen around
to overcome it; the index then corrected sharply to test the 8100
8100 - 8000 levels. However, sooner or later, we expect the
mark. The overall movement during the week was very range
Nifty to slide below this support zone. It's advisable to trade
bound with high volatility. Going forward, we maintain our
cautiously in the market and we suggest avoiding trading
higher degree negative stance on the market and expect the
aggressively in the opposite direction of the higher degree
Nifty to face strong resistance around the 8350 - 8400 levels.
(down) trend.
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
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Technical Picks |
May 16, 2015
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
26,412
26,868
27,206
27,662
28,000
NIFTY
7,985
8,124
8,228
8,367
8,471
BANKNIFTY
17,351
17,767
18,014
18,430
18,676
ACC
1,409
1,440
1,475
1,507
1,541
AMBUJACEM
222
228
234
240
246
ASIANPAINT
721
755
787
822
853
AXISBANK
516
539
553
576
590
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,056
2,121
2,157
2,222
2,258
BANKBARODA
131
146
158
173
186
BHEL
213
222
230
239
247
BPCL
681
724
747
790
813
BHARTIARTL
370
381
392
403
414
CAIRN
189
195
203
208
216
CIPLA
636
660
678
701
720
COALINDIA
356
361
369
374
382
DRREDDY
3,257
3,377
3,458
3,578
3,660
GAIL
344
362
381
400
419
GRASIM
3,404
3,477
3,529
3,602
3,653
HCLTECH
882
898
924
940
966
HDFCBANK
954
972
985
1,003
1,015
HDFC
1,166
1,200
1,218
1,252
1,270
HEROMOTOCO
2,220
2,375
2,465
2,620
2,711
HINDALCO
125
131
138
144
151
HINDUNILVR
784
814
858
888
932
ICICIBANK
296
304
315
323
334
IDEA
161
167
172
178
182
IDFC
148
152
157
162
167
INDUSINDBK
776
805
823
852
870
INFY
1,865
1,913
1,957
2,005
2,049
ITC
316
321
326
331
336
KOTAKBANK
1,291
1,318
1,335
1,362
1,379
LT
1,516
1,554
1,593
1,631
1,670
LUPIN
1,476
1,580
1,692
1,797
1,909
M&M
1,139
1,194
1,225
1,280
1,311
MARUTI
3,494
3,582
3,633
3,722
3,773
NMDC
124
128
131
135
138
NTPC
127
132
139
143
150
ONGC
302
310
316
324
329
POWERGRID
135
138
140
143
146
PNB
137
142
147
152
157
RELIANCE
835
854
877
897
919
SBIN
254
271
279
296
305
SUNPHARMA
905
926
947
968
989
TCS
2,434
2,473
2,519
2,557
2,603
TATAMOTORS
495
507
519
532
544
TATAPOWER
69
71
73
75
77
TATASTEEL
336
350
366
380
395
TECHM
588
603
622
637
655
ULTRACEMCO
2,626
2,716
2,788
2,878
2,950
VEDANTA
192
201
217
226
243
WIPRO
523
531
538
545
552
YESBANK
799
824
844
870
890
ZEEL
287
294
307
314
327
Technical Research Team
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Derivatives Review |
May 16, 2015
FIIs have started shorting index futures
Nifty spot closed at 8262.35 this week against a close of 8191.50 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 0.97 to 0.96
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is negative at 0.39%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 4.18%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has decreased from 0.97 to 0.96 levels. In call option
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has increased from 18.27%.to
we saw good amount of buildup in the range of 8300-8700
18.99%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 24.62% and
strike price. While in put options the overall buildup was
that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 34.24%. Liquid counters having
scattered between 7500- 8300 strike, except 7700 that showed
very high HV are BANKBARODA, JUBLFOOD,
unwinding and the quantum was also decent. Maximum buildup
ALBK, UNIONBANK and ORIENTBANK. Stocks where HV are
in current series is seen in 8500 call & 8000 put option.
on lower side are GMRINFRA, WOCKPHARMA, IOC,
BATAINDIA and ITC.
Open Interest Analysis
Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total open interest of market has increased from
Nifty current month futures closed at a discount of 1.15 points
`1,99,328/- cr. to `2,16,429/- cr. Stock futures open interest
against the premium of 19.05 points to its spot. Next month
has increased from `57,818/- cr. to `58,750/- cr. Liquid
future is trading with premium of 23.90 points. Liquid counters
counters names which added significant positions last week
where CoC is high are HCLTECH, ZEEL, ICICIBANK,
are LUPIN, ZEEL, VEDL, NTPC and DLF. On the other hand
BANKBARODA and CIPLA. Stocks with negative CoC are PNB,
unwinding was visible in counters like POWERGRID, ACC,
SBIN, INDUSINDBK, KOTAKBANK and GAIL.
HDFC, DRREDDY and BPCL.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip : NIFTY
CMP : 8261.20
Lot Size : 25
Exercise Date (F & O) :
28th. May 2015
View: Mildly Bearish
Strategy: Ratio Bear Put Spread
Expected Payoff
Buy/Sell
Qty
Scrip
Strike
Series
Option
Buy/Sell Rate
Closing Price
Expected
Price
Type
(`)
(`)
Profit/Loss
BUY
25
NIFTY
8200
MAY
PE
95.00
7750
(`55.00)
SELL
50
NIFTY
8000
MAY
PE
45.00
7875
`70.00
LBEP
-
7805
UBEP - 8195
8000
`195.00
8125
`70.00
Max. Risk: Unlimited
Max. Profit: `4,875/-
If NIFTY continues to move below LBEP.
If NIFTY closes at 8000 level on expiry.
8250
(`5.00)
NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if NIFTY moves in favorable direction and time value decays.
8375
(`5.00)
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Weekly
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E-mail: [email protected]
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Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)