Technical Picks | April 16, 2016
Nifty nearing 200 SMA - a level to watch
Sensex (25627) / Nifty (7850)
Trading for the week gone by started off with Monday’s
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
session opening with an upside gap, although marginal. The
Nifty then remained slightly under pressure in the first half
but a sudden bout of strength post the mid-session pulled
the index well above the day’s lows, taking many by
surprise. This momentum accelerated as the week
progressed and in the process the Nifty convincingly broke
its recent swing high of 7777.60 on the way through. The up
move was mainly propelled by Auto, Banking and IT
counters. Eventually, the Nifty concluded the week’s
proceedings with a handsome gain of 3.91% over the
previous week’s closing.
Pattern formation:
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Source: Company, Angel Research
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
24928
/
7587 and
25578 / 7743 levels, respectively.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
24966
/
7625 and
25054 / 7628 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
The Nifty posted reasonably strong weekly gains, despite it
being a truncated week; mainly drawing impetus from IMD’s
forecast of an above-normal monsoon this year. We accept
the fact that the concluded week’s move was slightly
surprising to us as we had hinted at the likelihood of a
contrary move in our previous weekly report. The up move
has come sooner than we had expected as we had
estimated the Nifty to first test the 7480 mark and then
Source: Company, Angel Research
assume bullishness. The surge we witnessed was on the back
of a lot of positive news flow on the domestic as well as the
Thus, we advise traders to keep booking profits in the zone
global front which led the Nifty to reverse after posting a low
of 7875 - 7925 and then wait for further developments on
of 7516.85. Although this move started a bit early, we
the charts to confirm the near term direction. On the flipside,
should give due respect to this price development. Thus,
7778 - 7660 would now be seen as immediate support
traders are advised not to stay in the opposite direction until
levels. Meanwhile, we expect stock specific movements to
we see any reversal signs. Technically speaking, traders
continue in the market and hence, traders should look out
should now keep a watch on the important technical
for such potential opportunities.
evidence, ie the ‘200 SMA’ placed at 7875. Ideally, looking
at the concluded week’s momentum, the Nifty should be
able to surpass this hurdle with ease. Historically, this
technical tool has proved its significance time and again.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | April 16, 2016
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
24,126
24,876
25,274
26,024
26,422
NIFTY
7,396
7,623
7,744
7,971
8,092
NIFTY BANK
15,113
15,696
16,023
16,605
16,932
ACC
1,407
1,439
1,457
1,488
1,506
ADANIPORTS
211
222
230
241
249
AMBUJACEM
217
224
228
235
239
ASIANPAINT
831
853
864
886
898
AUROPHARMA
733
759
777
804
822
AXISBANK
407
424
434
451
462
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,282
2,432
2,523
2,674
2,765
BANKBARODA
139
146
150
157
161
BHEL
118
126
131
138
143
BPCL
873
899
920
946
966
BHARTIARTL
329
340
352
364
376
INFRATEL
353
369
385
401
417
BOSCH
18,501
19,265
19,757
20,522
21,014
CIPLA
490
501
508
519
526
COALINDIA
266
272
277
283
288
DRREDDY
2,945
3,022
3,072
3,150
3,200
EICHERMOT
18653
19275
19621
20243
20589
GAIL
333
351
362
380
391
GRASIM
3,831
3,952
4,036
4,157
4,241
HCLTECH
814
826
836
848
858
HDFCBANK
1,028
1,055
1,070
1,097
1,112
HDFC
1,040
1,078
1,098
1,135
1,155
HEROMOTOCO
2,813
2,980
3,076
3,244
3,340
HINDALCO
84
90
94
100
104
HINDUNILVR
826
862
881
917
935
ICICIBANK
210
225
235
250
260
IDEA
105
110
113
118
121
INDUSINDBK
915
950
972
1,008
1,030
INFY
1,129
1,151
1,173
1,195
1,217
ITC
311
321
327
337
343
KOTAKBANK
645
668
684
708
724
LT
1,157
1,196
1,225
1,263
1,292
LUPIN
1,472
1,510
1,540
1,578
1,607
M&M
1,158
1,245
1,297
1,385
1,437
MARUTI
3,311
3,521
3,633
3,844
3,956
NTPC
129
133
135
140
142
ONGC
201
207
211
217
222
POWERGRID
139
142
144
147
148
RELIANCE
1,019
1,043
1,056
1,080
1,093
SBIN
177
185
189
196
201
SUNPHARMA
799
816
826
843
853
TCS
2,363
2,444
2,495
2,576
2,627
TATAMTRDVR
267
284
292
309
317
TATAMOTORS
360
385
398
422
436
TATAPOWER
64
67
69
72
73
TATASTEEL
311
322
329
340
347
TECHM
443
457
465
479
487
ULTRACEMCO
3,068
3,171
3,243
3,346
3,418
WIPRO
523
554
573
604
623
YESBANK
837
854
864
881
891
ZEEL
377
390
400
412
422
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | April 16, 2016
Market surprised with fresh longs in Index.
Nifty spot closed at 7850.45 this week, against a close of 7555.20 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.76 to 0.99
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 5.39%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 6.64%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has decreased from 0.76 to 0.99 levels due to
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has slightly decreased from
significant build-up in put options. In call options, we hardly
13.86% to 13.10%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at
saw any strike adding meaningful build-up, good amount
21.60% and that for BANKNIFTY is at 29.26%. Liquid
of unwinding was visible in 7600-8000 strikes. While in put
counters having very high HV are TATACHEM, M&M,
options, 7700 & 7800 strikes were quite active and they
WIPRO, BAJAJ-AUTO and DABUR. Stocks where HV are on
also added huge build-up. Maximum build-up in current
lower side are LICHSGFIN, APOLLOTYRE, DIVISLAB,
series is seen in 8000 call and 7000 put options.
JPASSOCIAT and IOC.
Open Interest Analysis
Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total open interest of market has increased from
Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 17.40
`1,98,794/- cr. to `2,13,851/- cr. Stock futures open
points against a premium of 22.90 points to its spot. Next
interest has increased from `53,000/- cr. to `56,977/- cr.
month future is trading with premium of 52.10 points.
Large cap names which added significant positions last
Liquid counters where CoC is high are HDFCBANK,
week are HEROMOTOCO, COALINDIA, INDUSINDBK,
INDUSINDBK, BPCL, BANKBARODA and ZEEL. Stocks with
M&M and AMBUJACEM. On the other hand unwinding was
negative CoC are HAVELLS, BATAINDIA, CANBK, GAIL
visible
in
counters like TATAPOWER, INFRATEL,
and HINDALCO.
TATAMTRDVR, MARUTI and BHEL.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip: NIFTY
CMP : 7850.45
Lot Size : 75
Exercise Date (F & O) :
28th Apr 2016
View :Bullish
Strategy: Long Call.
Expected Payoff
Buy/Sell
Qty
Scrip
Strike
Series
Option
Buy/Sell Rate
Closing Price
Expected
Price
Type
(`)
(`)
Profit/Loss
BUY
75
NIFTY
8000
APR
CE
35.00
7750
(`35.00)
BEP - 8035
7850
(`35.00)
7950
(`35.00)
Max. Risk: `2,625/-
Max. Profit: Unlimited
If NIFTY closes on or below strike price on expiry.
If NIFTY continues to move above BEP on expiry.
8050
`15.00
8150
`115.00
NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if NIFTY moves in favourable direction.
8250
`215.00
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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