Technical Picks | October 15, 2016
Crucial support of 8500 is under risk
Sensex (27674) / Nifty (8583)
Trading for the week began with a range-bound session on
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
Monday, which was quite expected considering the following
two days off. The volume activity was much lower than
average and the session ended with the index posting a bit
above the 8700 mark. On Thursday, the index opened with
a downside gap followed by a complete dominance from
the bears, concluding the session with a decent loss of 1.56
percent. Although, this corrective move was followed by
another range-bound session on Friday, the Nifty index
eventually dropped by 1.31 percent, during the truncated
week over its previous week's closure.
Key Moving Averages:
Source: Company, Angel Research
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
27673
/
8525 and
26393 / 8050 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
28143
/
8701 and
27628 / 8509 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
Despite being a truncated week, we witnessed a fair bit of
action in our market mainly on the back of global concerns.
Our persistent cautious stance on the market has played out
well for us. The Nifty could not maintain hold at higher levels
and as expected, the 8800 - 8825 levels acted as a stiff
Source: Company, Angel Research
hurdle. Though, the index has closed at a bit below the
8600 mark, it has managed to defend the crucial support of
In addition, this week we saw yet another development in the
8540 - 8518 successfully. This support zone coincides with
form of ‘Negative Directional Indicator (-DI)’ cutting the
‘Positive Directional Indicator (+DI)’ from southwards in ADX
the multiple technical evidences such as the daily ’89 EMA’,
(14) on weekly chart. Due to this, the possibility of breaking
‘Neckline of Head and Shoulder’ pattern, and a ‘Parabolic
the ‘Neckline’ level of
(8540
-
8518) the ‘Head and
SAR’ on weekly chart. In spite of hovering around such
Shoulder’ pattern on daily chart has increased. In this
strong support zone, we expect the Nifty to slip shortly. This
scenario, an immediate correction towards 8400 - 8287
cautious stance is laid on the basis of few key observations
cannot be ruled out. This hypothesis remains valid as long
such as the formation of ‘Shooting Star’ pattern on weekly
as the recent swing of 8745.80 on hourly chart is not
chart occurred during early September. As expected, this
violated. Thus, traders are advised to take into account all
pattern has proved its significance and from the last couple
these scenarios and key levels while trading, and stay light
of weeks, we have been observing the negative placement of
on positions.
the ‘RSI-Smoothened’ oscillator.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | October 15, 2016
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
27,144
27,409
27,813
28,077
28,481
NIFTY
8,419
8,501
8,624
8,706
8,828
NIFTY BANK
18,438
18,729
19,115
19,406
19,792
ACC
1,594
1,617
1,646
1,669
1,697
ADANIPORTS
236
245
257
266
278
AMBUJACEM
246
249
254
257
262
ASIANPAINT
1,169
1,187
1,207
1,226
1,246
AUROPHARMA
783
803
833
854
884
AXISBANK
499
510
524
535
550
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,718
2,758
2,832
2,873
2,947
BANKBARODA
143
148
157
162
171
BHEL
128
131
134
136
139
BPCL
635
651
662
678
688
BHARTIARTL
292
299
309
316
327
INFRATEL
353
359
370
376
386
BOSCH
22,321
22,562
22,891
23,133
23,462
CIPLA
557
572
585
601
614
COALINDIA
306
309
316
319
325
DRREDDY
2,973
3,002
3,051
3,080
3,128
EICHERMOT
24,853
25,127
25,604
25,878
26,355
GAIL
402
416
424
439
447
GRASIM
952
973
1,005
1,027
1,059
HCLTECH
775
794
809
828
844
HDFCBANK
1,234
1,248
1,268
1,282
1,302
HDFC
1,248
1,282
1,347
1,381
1,446
HEROMOTOCO
3,437
3,459
3,490
3,512
3,543
HINDALCO
146
150
157
161
167
HINDUNILVR
806
824
855
873
903
ICICIBANK
231
236
245
250
259
IDEA
70
73
77
79
83
INDUSINDBK
1,183
1,201
1,223
1,241
1,263
INFY
949
988
1,035
1,074
1,122
ITC
234
237
240
243
245
KOTAKBANK
757
770
778
790
798
LT
1,415
1,445
1,461
1,491
1,507
LUPIN
1,405
1,435
1,480
1,510
1,555
M&M
1,331
1,344
1,366
1,379
1,401
MARUTI
5,589
5,640
5,703
5,754
5,818
NTPC
140
142
146
149
152
ONGC
258
267
273
283
289
POWERGRID
170
174
176
180
183
RELIANCE
1,014
1,046
1,084
1,116
1,154
SBIN
238
245
253
260
267
SUNPHARMA
723
734
746
757
769
TCS
2,252
2,309
2,348
2,405
2,444
TATAMTRDVR
339
350
362
373
384
TATAMOTORS
521
538
555
572
589
TATAPOWER
75
76
79
81
84
TATASTEEL
402
407
414
419
426
TECHM
409
414
422
427
435
ULTRACEMCO
3,887
3,962
4,010
4,085
4,133
WIPRO
470
472
477
479
484
YESBANK
1,207
1,234
1,262
1,288
1,316
ZEEL
493
511
543
561
593
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | October 15, 2016
FIIs unwinding their longs in a big way, avoid buying.
Nifty spot closed at 8583.40 this week, against a close of 8697.60 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 0.96 to 0.93
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 7.10%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 7.32%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 21.70
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 25.15 points to its spot. Next
IOC
12225000
47.59
643.70
0.08
month future is trading with a premium of 59.95 points.
DHFL
16569000
38.21
301.30
2.47
PCR-OI has decreased from 0.96 to 0.93 levels. In call
TORNTPOWER
1296000
37.14
174.00
(3.63)
options, 8600-8800 strikes added huge open interest and
ULTRACEMCO
1012800
30.01
4056.35
2.56
these are more of writing by FIIs. On the other hand, 8000-
PCJEWELLER
949500
29.71
498.60
2.39
8500 put options were quite active from which 8000 & 8500
strikes added good amount of positions. We believe, FIIs are
DISHTV
33705000
24.64
93.45
(3.21)
buying these puts expecting Nifty to remain under pressure.
CROMPGREAV
13980000
21.10
75.70
(2.07)
Highest open interest in October series remains intact at 9000
BANKINDIA
29088000
17.04
111.55
(4.90)
call and of put options has been shifted to 8500 strike price.
Stock that added longs last week are PETRONET,
TATACOMM, ULTRACEMCO, DHFL and NIITTECH. While,
Weekly OI losers
fresh shorts were visible in ZEEL, IDEA, HDFC, UNIONBANK
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
and BANKINDIA. Liquid counters with higher CoC are
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
TATAPOWER, GRASIM, AXISBANK, ULTRACEMCO and
MRF
44985
(11.77)
52526.65
(2.05)
ADANIPORTS. Stocks with negative CoC are INFY, JUSTDIAL,
SUNTV
8070000
(10.41)
544.60
(3.43)
BANKINDIA, HCLTECH and KTKBANK.
TV18BRDCST
82654000
(9.46)
43.85
(9.02)
Last week, we witness huge amount of profit-booking in Index
HEROMOTOCO
1051000
(8.70)
3493.10
(0.02)
Futures by FIIs. We saw considerable amount of unwinding in
PIDILITIND
1823000
(8.62)
729.70
0.99
Nifty and fresh short formation in BankNifty on a WoW basis.
While, out of the money put options, 8000-8200 strikes are
APOLLOHOSP
485200
(8.11)
1333.70
0.54
also quite active and FIIs have been buying these puts. Thus,
CENTURYTEX
6477900
(7.78)
952.25
(2.87)
we believe, we may see further pain in Nifty, trade
TATASTEEL
22244000
(7.59)
413.35
1.20
accordingly.
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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