July 15, 2017
Technical Picks | July 15, 2017
Still skeptical on these extended moves
Sensex (32021) / Nifty (9886)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily chart - I
Trading for the week started with a complete chaos as
trading halted in NSE due to a technical glitch. Once the
trading activity resumed, the Nifty registered yet another all
time high and ended Monday's session way above the 9750
mark. The index traded with a positive bias for rest of the
week and crept higher to achieve new milestones of 9800
and 9900 as well. Eventually, index ended the week tad
below the 9900 mark by adding 2.28 percent during the
week.
Key Moving Averages:
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed 30364 / 9383 and 28038 /
8622 levels, respectively.
Source: Company, Angel Research
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at 31425 / 9691 and 30308 /
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart - II
9366 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
At present, we are undergoing a typical phase in the market
wherein you are stuck with your view and movement seen in
the market does not give any comfort to ride the tide. Some
observations with a slightly broader view are still holding us
back. One of the key observations is the placement of ‘RSI-
Smoothened’ on daily chart. If we meticulously observe the
daily chart, we can see that there two important trend lines
on RSI values are now converging. First one indicates
‘Negative Divergence’ and the other one shows the ‘Pull
Back’ towards the trend line breakdown (please refer the
exhibit
2). Such development (although market moving
upwards with a strong momentum) generally gives
Source: Company, Angel Research
contradictory signals. Hence, we need to keep our rigidity
On daily chart, we can see yet another candlestick pattern
intact and let go these extended moves as we generally see
which resembles a ‘Hanging Man’ pattern precisely at 127%
such kind of euphoric moves in the latter stage of any rally.
retracement of the previous up move from 9448.75. Since,
It’s always better to be safe than sorry.
we are a bit cautious, maybe we are more inclined towards
As far as index view is concerned, we continue to remain
finding for such bearish patterns or resistances in the
cautious on the market and would advise staying light in the
market. But, as mentioned previously, you never know,
market (index specific longs should be booked). However
market can surprise at any point of time while experiencing
having said that, one should not be ignoring the kind of
such euphoric extended moves. Going ahead, 9900 - 9920
spectacular trading opportunities individual stocks are
would remain to be the levels to watch out for in the upward
offering.
direction; whereas, on the lower side, 9845 - 9778 would
be seen as immediate support levels.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | July 15, 2017
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
31,798
31,909
32,009
32,121
32,221
NIFTY
9,549
9,717
9,815
9,984
10,082
NIFTY BANK
23,056
23,497
23,731
24,172
24,406
ACC
1,559
1,657
1,713
1,811
1,868
ADANIPORTS
366
371
377
382
388
AMBUJACEM
219
240
252
274
285
ASIANPAINT
1,042
1,080
1,148
1,185
1,253
AUROPHARMA
670
708
729
767
788
AXISBANK
490
502
516
527
541
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,641
2,725
2,785
2,869
2,929
BANKBARODA
158
161
164
168
171
BPCL
417
439
452
474
488
BHARTIARTL
379
393
401
415
423
INFRATEL
396
407
415
425
433
BOSCHLTD
23,134
23,748
24,115
24,729
25,095
CIPLA
529
539
546
555
562
COALINDIA
241
246
253
258
265
DRREDDY
2,629
2,666
2,706
2,743
2,783
EICHERMOT
27,222
27,565
27,982
28,325
28,742
GAIL
345
368
381
403
416
HCLTECH
811
831
850
870
889
HDFCBANK
1,606
1,643
1,696
1,732
1,785
HDFC
1,582
1,615
1,639
1,672
1,695
HEROMOTOCO
3,638
3,698
3,747
3,807
3,856
HINDALCO
189
198
202
211
216
HINDUNILVR
1,066
1,103
1,126
1,163
1,186
IBULHSGFIN
1,035
1,079
1,107
1,151
1,179
ICICIBANK
281
290
297
306
314
IOC
354
363
381
391
408
INDUSINDBK
1,504
1,539
1,562
1,598
1,621
INFY
888
930
979
1,022
1,071
ITC
304
320
344
361
384
KOTAKBANK
938
958
971
990
1,003
LT
1,122
1,147
1,165
1,189
1,208
LUPIN
1,067
1,103
1,166
1,202
1,265
M&M
1,310
1,343
1,365
1,398
1,420
MARUTI
6,393
6,975
7,282
7,864
8,171
NTPC
153
160
165
172
177
ONGC
152
155
161
164
169
POWERGRID
207
211
214
218
221
RELIANCE
1,454
1,494
1,516
1,556
1,579
SBIN
272
282
291
301
310
SUNPHARMA
542
557
568
583
594
TCS
2,244
2,321
2,418
2,495
2,592
TATAMTRDVR
255
264
274
283
293
TATAMOTORS
431
441
453
463
475
TATAPOWER
78
81
85
87
91
TATASTEEL
541
550
558
567
575
TECHM
370
380
389
399
408
ULTRACEMCO
4,046
4,135
4,186
4,275
4,326
VEDANTA
253
258
261
266
269
WIPRO
247
253
263
270
280
YESBANK
1,460
1,512
1,553
1,606
1,647
ZEEL
436
475
497
536
558
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | July 15, 2017
Despite market hitting new highs, FIIs shorting in index futures
Nifty spot closed at 9886.35 this week, against a close of 9665.80 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.29to 1.50
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 3.75%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 10.84%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 13.20
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 1.70 points to its spot. Next
CHENNPETRO
1225500
175.08
401.90
10.59
month future is trading with a premium of 43.80 points.
AJANTPHARM
678800
82.08
1499.30
(3.53)
PCR-OI has increased from 1.29 to 1.50 levels on week on
MGL
765600
71.05
991.85
1.51
week basis mainly because of huge build-up in put options. In
call option, 9900-10200 strikes added some fresh positions;
MRPL
9756000
66.13
123.70
1.89
followed by unwinding in 9500-9800 call options. While, in
NATIONALUM
9224000
42.87
70.20
3.39
put options, 9700-9900 strikes remained quite active and also
AMARAJABAT
1890600
41.55
847.75
(1.53)
added significant positions. In addition, some unwinding was
also witnessed in 9300-9500 put options. At current juncture,
CHOLAFIN
634000
38.13
1155.40
1.56
maximum open interest concentration in July series is placed
NIITTECH
960000
37.04
562.95
1.75
at 10000 call and 9600 put option.
Stock that added longs last week are SINTEX, PTC,
CHENNPETRO, UJJIVAN and ORIENTBANK. While, fresh
Weekly OI losers
shorts were visible in GMRINFRA, SRTRANSFIN, AJANTPHARM,
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
REPCOHOME and AMARAJABAT. Liquid counters with higher
CoC are RCOM, ANDHRABANK, IFCI, GMRINFRA and GSFC.
BERGEPAINT
1051600
(19.66)
252.60
3.42
Stocks with negative CoC are TECHM, RBLBANK, MRPL,
EQUITAS
8451200
(19.11)
170.40
6.47
TATASTEEL and CUMMINSIND.
ASHOKLEY
51478000
(18.03)
105.95
3.06
Last week, the benchmark index rallied 2.40% with some
rise in open interest, indicating long formation. However, if
PNB
43477000
(16.98)
154.20
8.06
we look at FIIs data, they continue unwinding their longs in
HINDZINC
12576000
(16.91)
274.30
2.16
index futures along with good amount of fresh short
formation. However, they bought good amount of index
INDIANB
3260000
(15.54)
317.60
5.99
call options in this upmove. At current juncture, we are
INDIGO
1456200
(13.17)
1282.55
2.50
hardly seeing any buying interest by stronger hands in
index, but looking at their index options activity it seem the
IBREALEST
30970000
(11.87)
197.55
(3.80)
overall momentum may continue for current series.
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
DISCLAIMER
Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited,
Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL
and Portfolio Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is a
registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number
INH000000164. Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing
/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public
offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals. Investors are advised to refer the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports available on our website to evaluate the
contrary view, if any.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Pvt. Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot
testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document.
While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be
regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from
or in connection with the use of this information.
For Private Circulation Only
4