Technical and Derivatives Review | September 14, 2018
Bulls again stamped their authority
Sensex (38091 ) / Nifty (11515)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
Last three weeks have been quite identical in nature when it comes to the price action. We had highlighted a typical corrective
phase scenario of the Bull market last week i.e. if market has to undergo some kind of correction, we see that pain coming out in the
first half of the week and the latter part tries to make up for the damage. Similarly, the bears just went berserk in the first half of the
week as we witnessed Nifty taking a nosedive of nearly 300 points with massive destruction in the broader market. But as per our
historical observations, the second half turned out to be the knight in shining armour for our market after USDINR cooling off from
the 73 mark. A strong bout of buying on Friday resulted into reclaiming of 11500.
What we saw in the first half and what happened in the second, it’s just completely contrast actions of market participants. Things
became extremely scary when index tanked below the 11300 mark. But fortunately for us, currency had some kind of respite, which
coincided with Nifty finding a strong support around its important swing low of 11234.95 (low on August 02, 2018). Due to last two
days’ of v-shaped recovery, index managed to recoup of nearly 80% of the damage done in the initial part. We somehow maintained
our bullish stance at lower levels also and fortunately, did not get carried away by the velocity at which market corrected. In order to
gain further strength, we had highlighted one scenario for the Nifty that it should manage to surpass the crucial hurdle of 11500
convincingly. And now looking at Friday’s move, it’s quite clear that the mighty bulls have again stamped their authority in the
market. Going ahead, we continue with our optimistic stance and expect Nifty to resume its northward trajectory. For the coming
sessions, 11603 would be seen as an important resistance; but, we believe that it’s a matter of time; we may see this hurdle getting
crossed and the Nifty again heading towards 11700 - 11760 levels.
Although, index has not completely recovered from the losses, the way it has closed, some encouraging cues have been left to
expect some fireworks in the forthcoming week. The broad based recovery always augurs well for a healthy move and hence, one
should trade with a positive bias by seeing 11430 - 11380 as an immediate support zone.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical and Derivatives Review | September 14, 2018
OTM call writers ran for shelter
Nifty spot closed at 11515.20 this week, against a close of 11589.10 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.49 to 1.38
and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 7.83%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 3.92%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 32.10 points against a premium of 43.85 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 69.60 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, we saw fresh build-up in 11400-11500 call options. On the flip side, we
saw some build-up in 11100 puts along with decent unwinding in 11500 and 11600 strikes. Maximum open interest for September
series is placed at 11800 followed by 11600 call and 11400 followed by 11000 put options.
Post sharp selling in the first two trading sessions of the week; we witnessed v-shaped recovery to conclude the week tad above
11500 mark. In index futures segment, we hardly saw any relevant OI change in the declines especially for Nifty; however, longs
were added when market showed strength. We also saw decent long rollovers which are still in system. At the same time, good
amount of unwinding was observed in OTM call options on Friday’s session. Considering the above data points, we expect further upside
scope above the immediate hurdle of 11600-11650 going ahead.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Pric
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%
BALRAMCHIN
16996000
70.75
89.30
14.19
MANAPPURAM
22128000
25.91
88.60
(8.28)
MFSL
2962800
23.51
490.35
3.14
MRPL
6934500
23.18
74.50
(5.04)
ENGINERSIN
12309500
13.20
132.75
5.65
JUBLFOOD
4006500
18.05
1340.50
(5.29)
INFIBEAM
50720000
10.20
236.85
2.87
SIEMENS
1811500
17.52
960.40
(3.42)
JINDALSTEL
33653250
7.31
234.70
6.15
KAJARIACER
2493000
17.10
431.85
(3.45)
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
2
Technical and Derivatives Review | September 14, 2018
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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