Technical Picks | August 13, 2016
8517 now a decisive level
Sensex (28152) / Nifty (8672)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
The week started on a positive note with a gap up opening
of around 30 points on the Nifty. The index then traded in a
narrow range and called off the day at the opening levels.
On Tuesday, the Nifty opened with marginal gains but it was
only to concede them as the sentiment turned bearish well
before the announcement of the RBI Monetary Policy. The
correction continued as the central bank held rates steady,
thus not paying heed to the expectation of many of a 25bp
rate cut. The session ended with a loss of around half a
percent on the Nifty. The negative momentum continued on
Wednesday, wherein the index shed a further ~100 points.
However, most of these losses got recovered in the rally that
followed in the last two trading sessions of the week and the
Source: Company, Angel Research
Nifty ended with a marginal weekly loss of 0.13%.
Key Moving Averages:
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
26838
/
8233 and
25983 / 7902 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
27865
/
8583 and
26798 / 8221 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
The Nifty registered its 52 week high (8728.35) in Tuesday’s
session, post which it underwent a bit of a retracement.
However, the bulls reclaimed charge of the market and with
the gains in the last two trading sessions they ensured a flat
Source: Company, Angel Research
weekly close on the Nifty. The last one month’s price action
on the Nifty’s daily charts depicts the formation of a
In the upcoming week, if the Nifty manages to continue with
’Megaphone’ pattern. The mentioned pattern represents
the positive momentum, then it could reach the next
range bound trading with increased volatility within a range.
resistance zone of 8780 - 8830 (monthly ‘Super Trend’
During the concluded week, the Nifty pulled back after
resistance around 8830). It would then be advisable for
having tested the bottom of the 8540-8517 support range
traders to start lightening up their longs. Owing to the
which coincided with the ‘200 SMA’ on the hourly chart.
mentioned ‘Megaphone’ pattern and the index nearing the
Thus, the lower end of this range now becomes a decisive
crucial levels mentioned above, the market could be inflicted
level for the Nifty in the near term and as long as it is not
with considerable volatility. We therefore recommend
breached on the lower side we expect the range bound
towards following a proper risk management strategy on
action to continue with a positive bias. On the weekly charts,
short term trading positions.
the Nifty has formed a ‘Hanging Man’ pattern which is a
reversal pattern. Traders with long positions should now trail
their stop loss below 8517 as the fall of this support could
lead to a short term corrective move on the index.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | August 13, 2016
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
27,454
27,803
28,047
28,396
28,639
NIFTY
8,459
8,565
8,647
8,754
8,835
NIFTY BANK
18,352
18,658
18,843
19,149
19,335
ACC
1,505
1,579
1,658
1,731
1,810
ADANIPORTS
224
241
251
268
278
AMBUJACEM
245
255
266
276
288
ASIANPAINT
1,096
1,117
1,139
1,160
1,182
AUROPHARMA
709
728
755
774
801
AXISBANK
552
572
582
602
613
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,778
2,823
2,871
2,916
2,964
BANKBARODA
135
142
152
159
169
BHEL
130
134
138
142
146
BPCL
548
564
591
607
634
BHARTIARTL
330
339
351
360
373
INFRATEL
343
354
373
385
404
BOSCH
23,008
23,778
24,724
25,495
26,441
CIPLA
494
505
523
534
552
COALINDIA
323
331
335
343
347
DRREDDY
2,929
2,970
3,014
3,055
3,099
EICHERMOT
21,125
21,724
22,123
22,721
23,121
GAIL
359
367
377
384
395
GRASIM
3,499
4,030
4,687
5,219
5,875
HCLTECH
788
801
818
831
849
HDFCBANK
1,199
1,214
1,234
1,249
1,270
HDFC
1,305
1,344
1,364
1,402
1,422
HEROMOTOCO
3,118
3,215
3,385
3,482
3,652
HINDALCO
132
139
146
153
159
HINDUNILVR
910
923
935
947
959
ICICIBANK
233
240
244
250
255
IDEA
84
89
98
103
111
INDUSINDBK
1,114
1,144
1,175
1,205
1,237
INFY
1,038
1,050
1,073
1,085
1,108
ITC
242
248
252
258
261
KOTAKBANK
745
754
768
777
791
LT
1,431
1,462
1,493
1,523
1,555
LUPIN
1,426
1,499
1,614
1,688
1,802
M&M
1,359
1,405
1,457
1,503
1,555
MARUTI
4,692
4,795
4,908
5,012
5,125
NTPC
154
157
160
163
165
ONGC
220
227
231
237
241
POWERGRID
169
174
177
181
184
RELIANCE
983
1,009
1,026
1,053
1,069
SBIN
215
229
239
253
262
SUNPHARMA
751
776
810
835
870
TCS
2,521
2,630
2,687
2,796
2,853
TATAMTRDVR
320
328
334
342
348
TATAMOTORS
484
500
512
528
539
TATAPOWER
69
72
74
77
80
TATASTEEL
351
363
374
386
397
TECHM
477
483
494
500
512
ULTRACEMCO
3,558
3,637
3,737
3,816
3,917
WIPRO
532
537
545
550
558
YESBANK
1,216
1,253
1,274
1,311
1,332
ZEEL
482
494
506
518
530
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | August 13, 2016
Data remains positive, stay long
Nifty spot closed at 8672.15 this week, against a close of 8683.15 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.97 to 1.03
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 2.02%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 4.92%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 6.25 points
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
against a premium of 12.78 points to its spot. Next month
EXIDEIND
25392000
107.11
173.50
(1.48)
future is trading with premium of 55.80 points.
OFSS
289650
54.73
3727.45
0.71
GRASIM
1486500
42.88
4581.20
(13.33)
PCR-OI has increased from 0.97 to
1.03 levels. In call
options, 8700-8800 strikes were active and they also added
OIL
1052300
40.68
369.40
(2.07)
good amount of positions. While, in put options we hardly saw
LUPIN
6009000
39.83
1582.20
(5.93)
any strike adding meaningful OI WoW, 8400 put option was
IDEA
52035000
39.71
94.25
(11.13)
most active. Maximum build-up in August series is placed at
ABIRLANUVO
4858500
38.60
1289.95
(16.95)
9000 call and 8500 put options.
ANDHRABANK
18320000
28.20
56.00
(9.16)
Large cap counters that added longs last week are SBIN,
YESBANK, AXISBANK, TATAPOWER and HINDALCO. While,
heavy weight stock that added fresh shorts are GRASIM,
Weekly OI losers
LUPIN, IDEA, M&M and SUNPHARMA. Liquid counters where
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
CoC is high are GRASIM, INFRATEL, INFY, TATASTEEL and
AMARAJABAT
635400
(35.58)
912.15
0.76
SBIN. Stocks with negative CoC are RECLTD, LT, BEL,
CONCOR
557000
(20.60)
1401.50
(2.94)
INDIACEM and PNB.
TORNTPHARM
207600
(20.40)
1484.35
(2.86)
Nifty remained volatile last week but closed on a flat note
UPL
5036400
(16.44)
629.50
2.30
WoW. It bounced from its strong support of 8500-8550 levels
VOLTAS
4714000
(15.25)
364.75
4.07
in last two trading session and FIIs too participated in this
move. From start of August series, FIIs have been continuously
HINDZINC
5369600
(14.21)
219.70
(0.14)
buying in cash market and Index Futures. We believe that
CADILAHC
3278400
(13.84)
370.15
(2.10)
longs formed in Index Futures are still intact. Thus, traders are
SIEMENS
1015000
(13.47)
1299.10
2.01
suggested to trade with a positive bias
Weekly change in OI
15,000
Call
Put
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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