Technical and Derivatives Review | July 13, 2018
Nifty finally out of recent congestion zone
Sensex (36542 ) / Nifty (11019)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
Finally after a long consolidation, our markets managed to come out of its recent congestion zone. The move after surpassing the
hurdle of 10800 was quite strong and hence, despite some mid-week hiccups in global markets, we did manage to maintain the
positivity in our market. As a result, the Nifty eventually hastened towards the 11000 mark and in fact, moved beyond it to conclude
the week with decent gains of over two percent as compared to the previous one.
The activity for the major part of the week was very encouraging; but, last couple of days was slightly shaky if considered some
weakness in the broader market. Hence, we believe that we may not have a smoother ride going ahead, especially in the first half of
the forthcoming week. As far as levels are concerned, 10976 followed by 10900 are likely to provide decent support for the market
and on the upside; 11078 - 11171 are the levels to watch out for. For the coming week, it’s advisable to keep focusing on individual
stocks that are providing better trading opportunities.
Further, while analyzing the weekly chart, we came across one interesting observation. Due to this weeks’ optimism, the weekly
chart now exhibits a breakout from the ‘Diamond’ pattern along with the ‘RSI-Smoothened’ crossing the threshold level of 70 in the
upward direction. This development certainly bodes well for our market if we have to take slightly bigger directional move.
However, having said that, we would like to highlight that the pattern remains valid as long as 10750 - 10700 levels are not broken.
Thus, till then, any meaningful decline in the coming days should be used as a buying opportunity.
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Technical and Derivatives Review | July 13, 2018
Stronger hands forming longs in futures segment
Nifty spot closed at 11018.90 this week, against a close of 10772.65 week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.51 to 1.79 and the
annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 0.28%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 19.53%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 1.10 points against a premium of 5.75 points to its spot. Next month future is
trading with a premium of 18.10 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, 11100 and 11200 call options added some fresh positions; followed by
decent unwinding in 10700-10900 strikes. On the other side, we witnessed 10700-11000 put options adding fresh positions;
wherein, 10900 added huge positions and we believe this is writing that took place. For July series, the maximum open interest
concentration stands at 11000 followed by 11200 call options; while, for put options is placed at 10600 followed by 10700 strike.
Last week, we saw index showing immense strength to surpass important hurdles near 10860 and 10940. We saw good amount of buying
interest during the week to eventually conclude above 11000 mark post 5 months. Although, we did see some profit booking in last two
trading sessions. In index futures segment, we witnessed additions of huge long positions in Nifty as well as BankNifty. FIIs too continued
adding long positions in index and stock futures. At the same time, we saw good amount of writing in 10800-11000 put options. At current
juncture, we believe 10930-10950 is an immediate support for index; whereas, 11100-11150 shall act as a hurdle. Thus, we would advise
traders to rather draw their attention on individual counters as they have better risk-reward ratio.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Pric
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%
ADANIPOWER
132180000
34.06
19.90
19.16
PVR
1325200
48.63
1216.00
(11.78)
HEXAWARE
5265000
11.15
498.10
11.01
UPL
17614800
28.29
565.95
(9.38)
KPIT
6151500
15.95
299.15
11.00
STAR
5002400
23.85
373.10
(8.21)
GRANULES
14005000
14.80
89.20
7.53
RECLTD
46296000
11.34
96.65
(7.69)
WIPRO
30991200
11.80
282.20
6.91
PCJEWELLER
9336000
15.97
120.10
(7.22)
Weekly change in OI
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2
Technical and Derivatives Review | July 13, 2018
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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