June 13, 2015
Technical Picks |
Short term traders should stay with the flow
Sensex (26425) / Nifty (7983)
Trading for the week began on a subdued note on Monday,
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
owing to mixed cues from the global bourses. Subsequently,
the Nifty continued with the corrective move to shed another
percent over the previous week's closing. A lackluster session
on Tuesday was followed by a strong recovery which led the
Nifty to close convincingly beyond the 8100 mark. However,
this optimism didn't stay long as there was a massive sell off
across the broader market, resulting in the Nifty breaching the
8000 mark on the lower side, on a closing basis. Despite seeing
a minor recovery on Friday, the Nifty eventually concluded the
Source: Falcon
week below the psychological level of 8000. The mighty bears
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
didn't spare any sector as all sectoral indices closed well inside
the negative territory on a weekly closing basis. Consumer
Durables, FMCG, Healthcare, Realty and IT counters were
among the major losers. The Nifty ended the week with a cut of
1.62% over the previous week's closing.
Pattern formation:
The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at
27678 / 8375 and 25408 / 7644 levels, respectively.
The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at
Source: Falcon
27040 / 8186 and 27678 / 8372 levels, respectively.
chart structure is still unchanged, we continue with our bearish
stance on the market and expect the Nifty to test 7800 - 7750
Future outlook
levels. On the higher side, 8050 - 8150 levels are now seen as
The price movement seen in the concluded week was a perfect
immediate resistance levels for the index. Only a sustainable
instance of 'Trend is your Friend' as we witnessed an extension
move beyond 8150 may apply some brakes on the ongoing
of the previous week's down move. The bulls showed some
pessimism. Traders with a near term perspective shouldn't be
resilience on Wednesday and thus, managed to pull the Nifty
in a hurry to expect near term bottom and should avoid catching
higher from the 8000 mark. But this effort of defending this
a falling knife. However, it is to be noted that the current down
psychological level immediately got sold into and in the process,
move is a corrective phase of a larger degree bull run and
the Nifty sneaked convincingly below 8000 to give a close at
thus, investors with a longer term horizon should now look to
an '8-month low' level. We have been consistently mentioning
accumulate value buying stocks on every declines.
about the near term down trend and had been advocating on
using every bounce as a shorting opportunity. Since the overall
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
1
INF010994639
NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635
Membership
numbers:
BSE
028/NSE:09946
June 13, 2015
Technical Picks |
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
25,884
26,155
26,578
26,848
27,271
NIFTY
7,806
7,894
8,029
8,117
8,252
BANKNIFTY
16,860
17,192
17,507
17,839
18,154
ACC
1,334
1,368
1,410
1,444
1,486
AMBUJACEM
204
211
222
229
240
ASIANPAINT
665
685
723
743
781
AXISBANK
525
538
554
568
584
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,134
2,210
2,254
2,330
2,373
BANKBARODA
135
141
151
157
166
BHEL
234
241
247
254
261
BPCL
812
825
843
856
875
BHARTIARTL
395
405
413
423
432
BOSCH LIMITED
18,260
19,272
20,637
21,649
23,013
CAIRN
160
170
181
191
202
CIPLA
541
561
592
612
642
COALINDIA
381
388
401
409
422
DRREDDY
3,202
3,260
3,354
3,412
3,506
GAIL
369
383
391
405
413
GRASIM
3,230
3,293
3,383
3,445
3,536
HCLTECH
845
871
908
934
972
HDFCBANK
977
993
1,006
1,022
1,035
HDFC
1,135
1,163
1,184
1,212
1,233
HEROMOTOCO
2,418
2,461
2,527
2,570
2,637
HINDALCO
113
115
118
120
124
HINDUNILVR
789
802
819
832
849
ICICIBANK
274
285
291
302
308
IDEA
157
164
172
179
187
INDUSINDBK
762
786
809
833
855
INFY
937
955
981
999
1,025
ITC
287
292
300
306
314
KOTAKBANK
1,213
1,262
1,313
1,363
1,414
LT
1,603
1,630
1,677
1,705
1,752
LUPIN
1,635
1,678
1,736
1,779
1,837
M&M
1,146
1,169
1,200
1,223
1,254
MARUTI
3,610
3,674
3,739
3,802
3,868
NMDC
109
112
117
121
126
NTPC
132
134
138
140
143
ONGC
293
297
303
307
314
POWERGRID
139
142
145
148
151
PNB
123
127
136
140
149
RELIANCE
855
872
891
909
928
SBIN
245
250
256
261
267
SUNPHARMA
778
796
825
843
872
TCS
2,396
2,451
2,532
2,587
2,668
TATAMOTORS
397
410
429
442
462
TATAPOWER
67
70
72
75
77
TATASTEEL
280
289
302
311
324
TECHM
500
526
545
571
590
ULTRACEMCO
2,592
2,670
2,758
2,836
2,924
VEDANTA
168
176
183
191
199
WIPRO
506
522
544
560
582
YESBANK
765
785
814
835
864
ZEEL
317
325
334
342
350
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
2
INF010994639
NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635
Membership
numbers:
BSE
028/NSE:09946
June 13, 2015
Derivatives Review |
Index Futures adding huge open interest
Nifty spot closed at 7982.90 this week against a close of 8114.70 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 0.90 to 0.85
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is negative at 1.48%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 4.80%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has decreased from 0.90 to 0.85 levels mainly due to
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has decreased from 17.56%.to
open interest addition in call options. Huge buildup was visible
15.96%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 21.43% and
in 8000-8200 call options last week which are long formation
that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 29.01%. Liquid counters having
in the hopes market to give bounce from current levels. On the
very high HV are SUNTV, CAIRN, AMARAJABAT, BHARATFORG
other hand in put options 7800 -7900 strike price added
and TATAGLOBAL. Stocks where HV are on lower side are
significant buildup followed by unwinding in 8000-8400 put
MCLEODRUSS, BPCL, GAIL, ENGINERSIN and ITC.
options. Maximum buildup in current series is seen in 8500
call & 7800 put options.
Open Interest Analysis
Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total open interest of market has increased from
Nifty current month futures closed at a discount of 4.20 points
`2,03,436/- cr. to `2,22,618/- cr. Stock futures open interest
against a discount of 0.45 points to its spot. Next month future
has increased from `59,644/- cr. to `58,362/- cr. Liquid
is trading with premium of 28.85 points. Liquid counters where
counters names which added significant positions last week
CoC is high are VEDL, AMBUJACEM, TATAMOTORS, NTPC and
are INDUSINDBK, BANKBARODA, KOTAKBANK, CIPLA and
ACC. Stocks with negative CoC are PNB, BANKBARODA, GAIL,
PNB. On the other hand unwinding was visible in counters like
INFY and INDUSINDBK.
CAIRN, ITC, POWERGRID, ICICIBANK and AXISBANK.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip : ITC
CMP : `297.40
Lot Size : 1000
Exercise Date (F & O) :
25th. June 2015
View: Volatile within range
Strategy: Short Strangle
Expected Payoff
Buy/Sell
Qty
Scrip
Strike
Series
Option
Buy/Sell Rate
Closing Price
Expected
Price
Type
(`)
(`)
Profit/Loss
SELL
1000
ITC
310
JUNE
CE
1.50
280
(`6.00)
SELL
1000
ITC
290
JUNE
PE
2.50
288
`2.00
LBEP
-
`286/-
UBEP - `314/-
296
`4.50
304
`4.50
Max. Risk: Unlimited
Max. Profit: `4,000/-
If ITC closes continues moves below LBEP or above UBEP.
If ITC closes between two strike prices on expiry.
312
`2.00
NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if ITC moves in favorable direction and time value decays.
320
(`6.00)
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
3
INF010994639
NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635
Membership
numbers:
BSE
028/NSE:09946
Weekly
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
Disclaimer
Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited,
Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and MCX Stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and Portfolio
Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is a registered entity with
SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number INH000000164. Angel or its
associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market. Angel
or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company
covered by Analyst. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of
securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. Angel/analyst has not served as an officer, director or
employee of company covered by Analyst and has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock’s price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company’s
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources
believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for
general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss
or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited
has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation
or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited
endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other
reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed
or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or
in connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important ‘Stock Holding Disclosure’ report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the
latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may have
investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)