Technical and Derivatives Review | April 13, 2018
Start liquidating longs as Nifty approaches 10600
Sensex (34193 ) / Nifty (10481)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
This has certainly been a good week of trade for our benchmark indices; in fact, the real action was seen in the broader market that
offered decent trading opportunities for market participants. The only disappointing thing was Nifty could not hold on to its position
above the 10500 mark due to strong profit booking in IT and some of the banking conglomerates in the latter half.
There has been a steady move in the Nifty throughout during the week and has managed to almost reach expected levels of 10400 -
10500. As mentioned in the earlier article, considering the recent development in some of the heavyweight counters, a possibility of
extending this move towards 10580 - 10640 cannot be ruled out. But, now, we will not be as convinced as we were couple of week
ago. We would certainly avoid aggressive longs and in fact, traders should ideally start liquidating long positions in a gradual manner.
It would certainly be a prudent strategy to stay light with a stock specific approach. For the coming session, 10520 followed by
10580 would be seen as an immediate resistance zone; whereas on the downside, 10450 - 10355 are likely to act as crucial
supports.
With a broader view, we would reiterate that if we look at the weekly and monthly charts, we still believe that worse is not over yet
for our markets. This is just a relief rally and hence, one need to keep booking timely profits and should stay light on positions.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical and Derivatives Review | April 13, 2018
Options data hints at a consolidation in index
Nifty spot closed at 10480.60 this week, against a close of 10331.60 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.45 to 1.63
and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 2.63%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 15.60%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 9.80 points against a premium of 21.25 points to its spot. Next month future is
trading with a premium of 38.55 points.
In Nifty options front, we saw build-up scattered between 10500-10700 call and 10200-10500 put options. Maximum open interest
concentration for April series is placed at 10500 call and 10300 put options.
During last week, the benchmark index continued the positive momentum and ended the week tad below the 10500 mark. During
the week, FII’s formed some long positions in the index fut. and they bought call options too. However, if we analyse the overall
options data, it is observed that 10500 call option has the highest open interest and until we see any unwinding in the same, there is
a higher probability of the index resisting around this mark. On the flipside, 10300 followed by 10400 put options have the highest
OI which are now the support levels. Thus, we expect some consolidation in the index in the coming week and hence, we advise
traders to book profits on existing long positions in the index and prefer a stock specific approach for near-term.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Pric
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%
MINDTREE
3076800
58.08
853.00
3.28
MGL
4125600
315.22
917.50
(9.5
PAGEIND
46250
30.65
25224.60
5.80
BPCL
16498800
50.24
406.85
(6.3
RAMCOCEM
1424800
28.13
827.65
5.68
ADANIENT
14740000
45.83
139.85
(7.0
NATIONALUM
46496000
26.05
77.20
8.89
SIEMENS
1184500
33.69
1080.40
(4.3
IRB
17732500
18.67
272.85
10.91
IOC
46461000
18.16
165.90
(5.2
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
2
Technical and Derivatives Review | April 13, 2018
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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