August 12, 2017
Technical Picks | August 12, 2017
Market in early stages of correction, stay light
Sensex (31214) / Nifty (9711)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
Trading for the week began with a narrow range candle on
Monday. However, the index started correcting on Tuesday
to sneak below the 10000 mark. As the week progressed,
the selling pressure intensified as the broader markets
witnessed massive destruction. Amidst gap down openings
on Thursday and Friday, the index crept lower and ended
the week tad above the 9700 mark, registering a loss of
3.53 percent over its previous week's close.
Key Moving Averages:
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at 30987 / 9593 and 28382 /
8734 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Source: Company, Angel Research
Sensex/Nifty are placed at 32025 / 9917 and 30876 /
9549 levels, respectively.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
Future outlook
In the week gone by, our market has posted a biggest
weekly fall in this calendar year. Everyone was so exuberant
a week ago celebrating the five digit milestone for the Nifty;
but, finally the market has surprised and before anyone
could realize it, we are back to 9700. The entire rally in
previous three weeks has now been completely snapped in
merely four trading sessions.
In the recent rally, we have been quite vocal about the
ongoing extreme nature of the market and have been
advocating using this rally to book profits in order to avoid
surprises. The kind of massive sell off we have witnessed in
Source: Company, Angel Research
the broader market is certainly a part of this surprise. Yes,
Now, we can say that our persistent cautious stance on the
one would say, it has come on the back of geopolitical
market has worked well for us. On the weekly chart, the
concerns between the US and the North Korea. But,
historically speaking, the market would always find its own
‘RSI-Smoothened’ has confirmed a negative crossover along
reason to correct and this is what we witnessed during the
with the big bearish candle. This certainly calls for an
week. In our previous article, we mentioned few observations
extended correction in the market. For the coming week,
that are, 10060 to act as a strong resistance of ‘Upward
9600 - 9580 levels are likely to be tested and since, it’s a
Sloping Trend Line’ on monthly chart, which coincides with
major support zone in the near term, the market may
the 100% ‘Price Extension’ of the previous up move from
respect it for a while. But in case of a bounce back, 9770 -
7893.80.
9852 are likely to act a strong resistance for the index.
Traders are repeatedly advised to stay light and avoid taking
undue risks as market seems to have entered a corrective
phase. Hence, the possibility of breaking this mentioned
support zone is quite high now.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | August 12, 2017
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
30,311
30,762
31,579
32,030
32,847
NIFTY
9,426
9,568
9,828
9,971
10,231
NIFTY BANK
23,105
23,546
24,262
24,703
25,420
ACC
1,692
1,727
1,782
1,816
1,872
ADANIPORTS
352
367
394
410
437
AMBUJACEM
250
257
269
276
288
ASIANPAINT
1,102
1,123
1,142
1,163
1,182
AUROPHARMA
628
666
704
742
779
AXISBANK
462
476
494
508
526
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,609
2,698
2,840
2,929
3,071
BANKBARODA
128
135
148
155
168
BPCL
438
461
495
518
552
BHARTIARTL
402
408
417
423
432
INFRATEL
357
369
389
402
421
BOSCHLTD
20,765
21,694
23,189
24,118
25,613
CIPLA
494
518
549
573
605
COALINDIA
221
229
241
248
260
DRREDDY
1,701
1,856
2,056
2,212
2,412
EICHERMOT
27,090
28,359
30,404
31,673
33,718
GAIL
338
353
371
387
405
HCLTECH
847
860
877
890
907
HDFCBANK
1,693
1,721
1,759
1,787
1,825
HDFC
1,638
1,667
1,710
1,738
1,782
HEROMOTOCO
3,663
3,752
3,886
3,974
4,108
HINDALCO
201
211
228
238
255
HINDUNILVR
1,103
1,128
1,168
1,193
1,234
IBULHSGFIN
981
1,065
1,141
1,226
1,301
ICICIBANK
242
265
284
306
325
IOC
386
399
416
429
446
INDUSINDBK
1,557
1,591
1,633
1,667
1,709
INFY
938
963
980
1,005
1,022
ITC
262
267
275
280
288
KOTAKBANK
960
976
989
1,005
1,018
LT
1,097
1,114
1,143
1,161
1,189
LUPIN
868
904
954
991
1,041
M&M
1,283
1,315
1,373
1,405
1,463
MARUTI
7,064
7,261
7,577
7,773
8,089
NTPC
160
164
172
176
184
ONGC
153
156
162
165
170
POWERGRID
205
212
219
226
234
RELIANCE
1,472
1,509
1,570
1,608
1,669
SBIN
255
268
290
302
324
SUNPHARMA
401
425
469
494
538
TCS
2,450
2,473
2,504
2,527
2,558
TATAMTRDVR
187
205
231
249
275
TATAMOTORS
310
342
391
423
472
TATAPOWER
74
75
77
79
81
TATASTEEL
561
579
602
620
644
TECHM
381
392
404
414
426
ULTRACEMCO
3,687
3,805
3,960
4,077
4,232
VEDANTA
257
268
287
298
318
WIPRO
280
285
290
295
299
YESBANK
1,638
1,689
1,753
1,804
1,868
ZEEL
474
490
517
533
561
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | August 12, 2017
FIIs index future ‘Long Short Ratio’ lowest in 2017
Nifty spot closed at 9710.80 this week, against a close of 10066.40 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.27 to 1.06
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 5.69%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 9.20%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 30.25
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 42.15 points to its spot. Next
REPCOHOME
672000
76.15
637.70
(17.22)
month future is trading with a premium of 61.25 points.
BRITANNIA
424600
31.37
4113.45
4.74
PCR-OI has decreased from 1.27 to 1.06 levels on W-o-W
CADILAHC
2691200
22.68
483.30
(9.56)
basis. Being a volatile week, the overall build-up in options
are quite scattered. In call option, 9800-10200 strikes were
PVR
642800
22.02
1291.20
(8.10)
active and they also added huge positions. On the flip side,
TVSMOTOR
5570000
20.72
530.35
(11.92)
out the money strikes of 9000, 9200 and 9400-9600 put
SBIN
75375000
19.73
281.25
(8.39)
options added decent positions; followed by significant
unwinding in 9900-10100 put options. Highest open interest
UBL
1246000
19.54
788.20
(3.79)
in August series has now been shifted to 10000 call and 9500
INFRATEL
11102700
17.57
384.30
(5.74)
put option.
Stock that added longs last week are BRITANNIA and
JUBLFOOD. While, fresh shorts were visible in REPCOHOME,
Weekly OI losers
GODREJIND, TVSMOTOR, SUNTV and CADILAHC. Liquid
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
counters with higher CoC are CIPLA, INFIBEAM, JSWENERGY,
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
SREINFRA and RCOM. Stocks with negative CoC are
PCJEWELLER
3957000
(34.31)
297.40
13.97
CHENNPETRO, INDIGO, GSFC, MCX and RBLBANK.
HEXAWARE
1794000
(31.74)
254.85
1.45
Last week, the benchmark index plunged 3.64% with decent
CHOLAFIN
285500
(29.42)
1144.50
(3.43)
rise in open interest, hinting short formation in this fall. FIIs too
INDIGO
1635600
(26.38)
1215.15
(2.57)
actively participated by doubling their shorts in index futures
segment. As a result, their ‘Long Short Ratio’ declined from
RAMCOCEM
520800
(25.00)
662.50
(4.03)
65% to 58%. In addition, they bought significant amount of
MGL
901200
(23.05)
989.90
(4.16)
index put options along with writing in call options, indicating
market to remain under pressure going ahead. Maximum
BATAINDIA
2857800
(22.91)
637.05
0.56
concentration of put options has shifted lower indicating scope
NHPC
21654000
(22.81)
30.25
0.00
for correction towards 9500-9550.
Weekly change in OI
40,000
Call
Put
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
(10,000)
(20,000)
(30,000)
(40,000)
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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