Technical and Derivatives Review | April 12, 2019
Market consolidates further, still better to be with the trend
Sensex (38767) / Nifty (11643)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
Trading for the week kick started on a positive note slightly above 11700, very much in-line with other Asian peers. However, it looked like
a fragile gap up opening and hence, markets started coming off immediately from opening trades. In fact, the selling aggravated as the day
progressed and hence, we not only erased early morning gains but also went on to sneak well below key support levels. During the
remaining part of the week, index consolidated within the range of Monday’s session with lot of stock specific moves. On Friday, we saw
good traction throughout the day and hence, Nifty eventually managed to close well above the 11600 mark.
Recently, markets had run up quite sharply and generally after such a relentless move, markets needs to undergo either ‘Time-wise’ or
‘price-wise’ correction. What we are experiencing is a part of that time-wise correction. Such development is considered a healthy move if
markets has to unfold further legs in the upward direction. As far as levels are concerned, we are trapped in a range of 11761 - 11549 and a
decisive breakout on either side would bring back some momentum in the market. In our sense, even if we slide below 11549, the trend
does not change and hence, we would rather interpret it as a good buying opportunity.
In any kind of consolidation, it is hard to give time projection; but according to us, it’s a matter of time, we would see Nifty going beyond
11761 and enter an uncharted territory. Whether this happens before the election verdict or not, the time will tell us. Till then traders are
advised not to have a contrarian approach and should rather look to identify potential candidates in order to fetch higher returns.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical and Derivatives Review | April 12, 2019
11550-11600 is a strong base
Nifty spot closed at 11643.45 this week, against a close of 11665.95 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.55 to 1.24.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 14.56%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has decreased by 2.53.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 60.40 points against a premium of 94.80 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 122.05 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, fresh build-up was seen in 11800 and 12000 call options. On the other
side, fresh build up was seen in 11000 and 11500 put options. Maximum open interest for April series now stands at 12000 call and
11000 put options.
During last week, the Nifty consolidated in a range of 11550-11700. We witnessed some unwinding of positions in this consolidation
and hardly any fresh shorting was observed. The maximum open interest concentration is now placed at 11600 put options.
Recently, 11550-11600 has acted as a very strong base last week and on Friday we also saw fresh buying from these levels. In
options front, good amount of unwinding also took place in 11700 which acted as a hurdle. Considering above data points, traders
are advised trading with a positive bias going ahead as we may soon head towards record highs.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
TATAMOTORS
64558000
17.60
207.00
17.85
BPCL
11147400
55.56
360.90
(9.76)
TATAMTRDVR
35906200
16.74
99.20
15.01
JETAIRWAYS
7013600
21.68
233.60
(7.87)
DHFL
24088500
21.85
165.15
9.01
NBCC
36592000
9.90
62.60
(6.50)
BHARTIARTL
35244400
15.38
359.95
7.38
AMARAJABAT
2090900
67.34
685.95
(5.51)
BAJAJFINSV
705500
23.20
7462.50
5.41
CUMMINSIND
1728300
22.05
721.45
(4.18)
Weekly change in OI
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Technical and Derivatives Review | April 12, 2019
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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