Technical Picks | March 12, 2016
Short term Uptrend intact, Momentum to pick-up above 7600
Sensex (24623) / Nifty (7510)
After the gigantic rally in the first week of March 2016, the
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
Nifty index on Tuesday started the proceedings of the week
on a flat note owing to mixed global cues. It traded in a
narrow range for the day and eventually closed flat. On
Wednesday, the Nifty opened below Tuesday’s low but then
posted a smart recovery to close the session at the day’s
high. On Thursday, the index opened gap up but then
corrected during the first half of the session. However, it
trimmed off most of the losses in the latter half of the
session. After the rollercoaster move, the concluding session
of the week closed with marginal gains. During the week,
the Nifty traded around the 7500 mark and saw smart
recoveries from lower levels. The index ended the truncated
week with a marginal gain of one-third of a percent over the
Source: Company, Angel Research
previous week’s closing.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
Pattern formation:
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
24858
/
7550 and
25959 / 7749 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
24069
/
7332 and
24959 / 7585 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
The Nifty traded within a range of 123 points during the
concluded week, which was clearly on our expected lines. In
our previous weekly report, we had expressed our
Source: Company, Angel Research
anticipation of the rally in the Nifty taking a pause around
7550 levels. Currently, the Nifty is trading near its resistance
The short term trend, hence, continues to remain positive.
of 7550 (previous breakdown level) on the daily chart, which
Traders are advised not to create any short positions in the
coincides with the ‘89 DEMA’ and 50% retracement level of
index as a thrust above the 7600 mark may result into
the previous down move from
8336.30 to
6825.80.
continuation of the rally up to 7750 - 7800 levels. On the
However, in the last few trading sessions, the index has not
downside, 7425 and 7300 levels would now act as crucial
shown any signs of reversal or weakness in spite of it
supports for the Nifty.
hovering around the resistance zone.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | March 12, 2016
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
24,294
24,506
24,663
24,875
25,033
NIFTY
7,371
7,441
7,494
7,563
7,617
NIFTY BANK
14,806
14,987
15,171
15,352
15,535
ACC
1,196
1,212
1,233
1,248
1,270
ADANIPORTS
217
224
228
236
240
AMBUJACEM
196
198
202
204
208
ASIANPAINT
841
870
887
915
932
AXISBANK
399
406
414
421
430
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,271
2,298
2,323
2,350
2,375
BANKBARODA
132
136
142
146
152
BHEL
97
101
106
109
114
BPCL
762
783
809
830
855
BHARTIARTL
322
330
334
342
346
BOSCH
16,691
17,354
17,798
18,460
18,905
CAIRN
124
136
142
153
160
CIPLA
507
521
535
549
564
COALINDIA
307
313
323
329
339
DRREDDY
3,104
3,157
3,214
3,267
3,324
GAIL
324
332
344
352
364
GRASIM
3,419
3,501
3,583
3,664
3,747
HCLTECH
788
806
819
836
849
HDFC
998
1,013
1,022
1,037
1,046
HDFCBANK
1,084
1,122
1,145
1,183
1,206
HEROMOTOCO
2,758
2,786
2,818
2,846
2,878
HINDALCO
76
80
83
86
89
HINDUNILVR
811
831
845
865
878
ICICIBANK
205
209
215
219
225
IDEA
98
100
104
106
110
INDUSINDBK
889
908
923
941
956
INFY
1,105
1,124
1,157
1,176
1,210
ITC
308
315
319
326
331
KOTAKBANK
622
632
651
662
681
LT
1,143
1,164
1,193
1,214
1,243
LUPIN
1,724
1,790
1,827
1,893
1,929
M&M
1,190
1,205
1,226
1,242
1,263
MARUTI
3,342
3,492
3,591
3,740
3,840
NTPC
122
124
127
129
131
ONGC
197
201
205
209
213
POWERGRID
134
136
138
141
143
PNB
77
80
82
84
86
RELIANCE
984
999
1,023
1,038
1,061
SBIN
172
176
182
186
191
SUNPHARMA
825
846
859
881
893
TCS
2,255
2,310
2,350
2,406
2,446
TATAMOTORS
329
342
349
361
369
TATAPOWER
56
58
59
60
61
TATASTEEL
272
283
292
303
312
TECHM
427
442
458
473
489
ULTRACEMCO
2,864
2,929
2,975
3,040
3,085
VEDL
80
84
88
92
96
WIPRO
528
533
538
544
549
YESBANK
732
766
786
820
839
ZEEL
377
388
395
406
413
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | March 12, 2016
FIIs buying in Index Futures, avoid shorting.
Nifty spot closed at 7510.20 this week, against a close of 7485.35 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.00 to 0.96
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 0.49%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 1.83%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has decreased from 1.00 to 0.96 levels mainly due
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has decreased from
to huge OI addition in call options. 7500-7800 strikes of
15.19% to 14.33%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at
call options added decent OI, we believe it’s more of call
24.75% and that for BANKNIFTY is at 34.20%. Liquid
buying last week. In put options, 7200 and 7500 strikes
counters having very high HV are MINDTREE, COLPAL,
added some fresh build-up. Maximum build-up in current
CAIRN, MARICO and SAIL. Stocks where HV are on lower
series is seen in 7500 call options and of put options has
side are JSWSTEEL, SUNPHARMA, HEROMOTOCO, DLF
got shifted from 7000 to 7200 strike price.
and COALINDIA.
Open Interest Analysis
Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total open interest of market has increased from
Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 2.00
`2,12,493/- cr. to `2,23,644/- cr. Stock futures open
points against a discount of 25.00 points to its spot. Next
interest has decreased from `56,552/- cr. to `55,606/- cr.
month future is trading with premium of 38.55 points.
Large cap names which added significant positions last
Liquid counters where CoC is high are IDFC,
week are COALINDIA, NMDC, ACC, BANKBARODA and
AMBUJACEM, POWERGRID, HDFCBANK and SBIN. Stocks
CIPLA. On the other hand unwinding was visible in counters
with negative CoC are COALINDIA, CAIRN, BAJAJ-AUTO,
like HDFC, M&M, TCS, BAJAJ-AUTO and BPCL.
HEROMOTOCO and BHARTIARTL.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip: NIFTY
CMP : 7510.20
Lot Size : 75
Exercise Date (F & O) :
31st Mar 2016
View: Mildly Bullish
Strategy: Ratio Bull Call Spread.
Expected Payoff
Buy/Sell
Qty
Scrip
Strike
Series
Option
Buy/Sell Rate
Closing Price
Expected
Price
Type
(`)
(`)
Profit/Loss
BUY
75
NIFTY
7500
MAR
CE
100.00
7400
(`36.00)
SELL
150
NIFTY
7700
MAR
CE
32.00
7500
(`36.00)
LBEP - 7536
UBEP - 7864
7600
`64.00
7700
`164.00
Max. Risk: Unlimited
Max. Profit: `12,300
If NIFTY continues to move above UBEP on expiry.
If NIFTY closes at 7700 levels on expiry.
7800
`64.00
NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if NIFTY moves in favourable direction and time value decays.
7900
(`36.00)
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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