1
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| June 11, 2021
Nifty at 15800 but midcap index at crucial juncture now
Sensex (52475) / Nifty (15799)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
The new trading week started on a pleasant note on Monday as there was some positivity seen across the globe. With this, our
benchmark registered a fresh record high while the banking remained quiet on the first day. During the remaining part of the week,
Nifty consolidated in a small range as the banking kept sulking. Fortunately, the IT space saw some renewed buying interest which
kept our benchmark in the positive terrain to eventually register yet another record high beyond the 15800 mark. Among the key
indices, Nifty gained 0.82% during the week which was mainly led by handsome gains of 4.52% in Nifty IT. The Nifty Midcap 50 index
too added another 2.57% to its kitty; however the banking remained laggard by losing over half a percent.
Since we are trading in an uncharted territory, a small uptick from hereon would give us new high. Hence, it should be considered
only as a number now. Since last couple of weeks, we have been mentioning how there is no major hurdle seen before 16000 and in
line with this, the Nifty has been continuing its rally. But the kind of price action we witnessed during the week (especially in banking
space), it’s not giving us the comfort now. Hence, if benchmark has to reach this milestone of 16000 and even move beyond it, the
BANKNIFTY needs to surpass the sturdy wall of 36000. If it fails to do so then we may see some bouts of profit booking in the
forthcoming week. The key support is to be seen at 15700 15550 for Nifty; whereas 15850 15900 are to be considered as
immediate resistances.
There is another notable observation that is making us a bit cautious at current levels. The Nifty Midcap 50 index which is enjoying
its dream run since many months has now reached a crucial juncture. On the daily chart, we can see it reaching the ‘100% Price
Extension’ of the previous up move and importantly on the weekly time frame, we can see it coinciding around the ‘161% Price
Extension’ of the first up leg started after March 2020 lows. By highlighting this, we do not expect the multi-year Bull Run to end; but
at least a short term pause or profit booking cannot be ruled out. Hence traders are now advised to take some money off the table
and avoid aggressive bets overnight. Also, the stock specific approach still can be continued but one has to be very fussy and should
follow proper risk management from hereon.
2
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| June 11, 2021
Bearish bets in banking space; sign of worrisome
Nifty spot closed at 15799.35 this week, against a close of 15435.65 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.30 to 1.35.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 3.19%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 13.14%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 17.95 points against a premium of 42.35 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading at a premium of 65.85 points.
In options segment, we hardly saw any relevant build-up in call options; however, 15700 and 15800 strikes of puts added good
amount of positions. Maximum build-up in the weekly series is placed in 16000 call and 15700 put options.
During the week, we had a cheerful start tad above 15700 and then some consolidation with positive biasness was observed. On
Wednesday, the benchmark index clocked fresh record high but failed to sustain at higher levels and sharp selling pressure dragged
index almost towards 15550. However, in next two sessions index reclaimed 15800 mark. In F&O space, we saw decent longs
formation in Nifty; whereas, in banking space underperformed and shorts were also formed. In options front, we saw good amount
of writing in puts shifting the base higher to 15700 now. FIIs added mixed positions in equities and index futures; whereas,
meaningful bullish bets was witnessed in stock futures. Surprising the banking is not participating recently and short addition in this
space is a sign of worrisome. Hence, we would advise traders to be watchful before initiating any aggressive direction bets in index
and would advise preferring stock specific approach.
.
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
PETRONET 30120000 42.98 232.80 (5.27)
HAVELLS
5063500
35.42
1018.35
(3.85)
NMDC
86617600
31.60
184.80
(4.86)
MRF
52360
28.78
82425.00
(3.36)
VOLTAS
2816000
27.19
1050.90
(4.84)
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg(%)
TORNTPOWER 4645500 129.41 461.30 7.82
BATAINDIA
1265550
40.05
1638.25
4.67
SRTRANSFIN
4657200
33.20
1469.90
3.16
RECLTD
20076000
30.35
162.20
7.13
MGL
2165400
23.38
1232.60
3.71
3
For Private Circulation Only
Technical and Derivatives Review
| June 11, 2021
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 (Extn – 6844) Website: www.angelbroking.com
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For Derivative Queries E-mail: [email protected]
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Senior Analyst - Technical & Derivatives ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelbroking.com