April 11, 2015
Technical Picks |
Market nearing Strong Resistance Zone - Stay Light on Positions
Sensex (28879) / Nifty (8780)
Trading for the concluded week began on an optimistic note
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
on Monday. Subsequently, the Nifty consolidated throughout
the first half. A strong buying interest in the latter half pushed
the index well beyond the 8600 mark. On Tuesday, despite
having mixed global cues, our market opened on a positive
note but then displayed slightly higher volatility on the back of
important event viz the RBI Monetary Policy. At the end, the
bulls were able to defend their dominance by giving a smart
recovery from the lows. The remaining three trading session
too traded with some volatility but maintained the positive bias.
Source: Falcon
All sectors ended the week with robust gains amongst which
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
the FMCG, IT, Metal, Oil & Gas and Realty were the major
contributors to the rally. The Nifty added another 2.26% to the
previous week's closing.
Pattern formation:
The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at
28269 / 8545 and 24973 / 7502 levels, respectively.
The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at
28479 / 8646 and 28257 / 8542 levels, respectively.
Source: Falcon
Future outlook
The bulls have completely dominated the last couple of weeks
be termed as a 'Hanging Man' Japanese candlestick pattern;
as we witnessed a relentless recovery from the recent low of
which certainly does not bode well for the bulls. However, the
8269.15. In our previous report, we had mentioned a resistance
said pattern needs a confirmation in the form of violation of
zone around 8600 - 8650 for the Nifty and a move beyond
the low of the pattern i.e. 8682 in this case. This development
8650 may extend this bounce towards 8800. The mentioned
may apply brakes on the ongoing recovery and the Nifty then
scenario triggered on the very first day of the concluded week
may go back to test 8550 - 8450 levels. On the flipside, if the
and as a result, we witnessed a gentle move towards 8800.
mentioned scenario doesn't happen and if the Nifty manages
But, honestly speaking, these last 100 - 150 points on the Nifty
to surpass the 8800 mark then we may witness an extension of
were very difficult to trade and hence, we maintained our stock
this bounce towards 8900 - 8950 levels. It would be then
specific approach in the market. The Nifty has now reached
advisable to lighten up long positions in the rally. Considering
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the recent down move
above mentioned hypothesis, we would advise against being
from 9119.20 to 8269.15. Hence, it can be considered as a
too aggressive in the market and recommend trading with a
strong resistance zone. In addition, Thursday's daily candle can
proper exit strategy.
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April 11, 2015
Technical Picks |
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
27,984
28,432
28,670
29,117
29,356
NIFTY
8,500
8,640
8,714
8,854
8,927
BANKNIFTY
18,138
18,470
18,683
19,014
19,228
ACC
1,537
1,586
1,632
1,681
1,726
AMBUJACEM
247
252
259
265
272
ASIANPAINT
804
832
847
874
889
AXISBANK
539
554
565
580
591
BAJAJ-AUTO
1,939
2,019
2,073
2,153
2,208
BANKBARODA
163
169
172
178
181
BHEL
222
228
234
240
246
BPCL
771
796
815
840
860
BHARTIARTL
384
398
410
424
437
CAIRN
207
215
221
229
234
CIPLA
662
681
714
734
766
COALINDIA
345
367
379
401
412
DRREDDY
3,433
3,615
3,711
3,894
3,990
GAIL
365
382
398
415
432
GRASIM
3,615
3,704
3,763
3,853
3,912
HCLTECH
887
927
952
993
1,018
HDFCBANK
1,001
1,022
1,040
1,061
1,080
HDFC
1,238
1,264
1,309
1,335
1,380
HEROMOTOCO
2,510
2,547
2,612
2,649
2,715
HINDALCO
128
133
137
142
146
HINDUNILVR
864
899
917
952
971
ICICIBANK
309
313
319
324
330
IDEA
181
189
194
201
206
IDFC
165
171
175
180
184
INDUSINDBK
881
913
932
964
984
INFY
2,103
2,169
2,203
2,269
2,303
ITC
322
334
342
354
361
KOTAKBANK
1,314
1,368
1,406
1,460
1,498
LT
1,692
1,728
1,758
1,794
1,824
LUPIN
1,856
1,910
2,013
2,067
2,169
M&M
1,157
1,222
1,256
1,321
1,355
MARUTI
3,534
3,600
3,644
3,711
3,755
NMDC
124
129
133
138
142
NTPC
143
150
154
160
165
ONGC
300
305
313
318
325
POWERGRID
143
148
151
155
158
PNB
142
153
159
170
177
RELIANCE
791
848
878
935
966
SSLT
182
192
198
208
214
SBIN
264
275
281
292
298
SUNPHARMA
1,026
1,073
1,137
1,184
1,248
TCS
2,426
2,540
2,614
2,727
2,801
TATAMOTORS
542
552
563
573
584
TATAPOWER
75
77
78
80
82
TATASTEEL
304
323
336
356
369
TECHM
613
637
659
682
704
ULTRACEMCO
2,801
2,885
2,954
3,038
3,106
WIPRO
599
608
619
628
638
YESBANK
801
822
840
861
879
ZEEL
321
334
346
359
371
Technical Research Team
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April 11, 2015
Derivatives Review |
8900-8950 may act as a strong resistance
Nifty spot closed at 8780.35 this week against a close of 8586.25 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.96 to 1.08 levels
and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 6.46%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 1.07%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has increased from 0.96 to 1.08 levels mainly due to
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has decreased from 12.49%.to
open interest addition in put options. Huge buildup was visible
12.34%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 17.32% and
in 8700-8900 put options last week which may be long
that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 28.74%. Liquid counters having
formation, 8300, 8400 and 8800 put options also added good
very high HV are UBL, HDIL, RCOM, GLENMARK and DIVISLAB.
amount of buildup last week. On the other hand in call options
Stocks where HV are on lower side are JSWENERGY, PTC, LT,
8800-9000 strike price added good buildup. Maximum buildup
MOTHERSUMI and AMBUJACEM.
in current series is seen in 9000 call & 8500 put options.
Open Interest Analysis
Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total open interest of market has increased from
Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 31.10 points
`1,88,878/- cr. to `2,12,776/- cr. Stock futures open interest
against the premium of 46.85 points to its spot. Next month
has increased from `65,237/- cr. to `68,364/- cr. Liquid
future is trading with premium of 75.85 points. Liquid counters
counters names which added significant positions last week
where CoC is high are JPPOWER, L&TFH, JPASSOCIAT,
are RECLTD, HDIL, FEDERALBNK, UNIONBANK and VOLTAS.
JISLJALEQS and CENTURYTEX. Stocks with negative CoC are
On the other hand unwinding was visible in counters like
GODREJIND, PNB, MINDTREE, PETRONET and BANKBARODA.
CENTURYTEX, SBIN, TECHM, HINDUNILVR and ITC.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip : BANKNIFTY
CMP : `18,864.70
Lot Size : 25
Exercise Date (F & O) :
30th. Apr 2015
View: Volatile within range
Strategy: Short Strangle
Expected Payoff
Buy/Sell
Qty
Scrip
Strike
Series
Option
Buy/Sell Rate
Closing Price
Expected
Price
Type
(`)
(`)
Profit/Loss
SELL
25
BANKNIFTY
19500
APR
CE
120.00
17850
(`110.00)
SELL
25
BANKNIFTY
18200
APR
PE
120.00
18250
`240.00
LBEP
-
`17960/-
UBEP - `19740/-
18650
`240.00
19050
`240.00
Max. Risk: Unlimited
Max. Profit: `6,000/-
If BANKNIFTY continues to move below LBEP or above UBEP
If BANKNIFTY closes between two strikes on expiry.
19450
`240.00
NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if BANKNIFTY remains in range and time value decays.
19850
(`110.00)
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Weekly
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15