Technical Picks | March 11, 2017
Market to hit record highs soon
Sensex (28946) / Nifty (8935)
We had a great start for the new trading week on Monday
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
as most of the emerging markets were quite cheerful after
US Dollar Index maintaining its position below the
102
mark. In fact, the momentum kept on accelerating as the
day progressed and due to such sustained buying, the Nifty
closed with third quarter of a percent gains. Clearly, the
heavyweight counter, ‘Reliance Industries’ has been the eye-
catcher who extended its multi-year rally by nearly four
percent during the session. However, post this move, the
index continued its sideways movement with a narrow range
for the remaining part of the week to conclude with a
nominal gain of 0.42 percent over the previous week's close.
Key Moving Averages:
Source: Company, Angel Research
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
27750
/
8578 and
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
26802 / 8214 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
28655
/
8863 and
27790 / 8582 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
It’s been a second consecutive week of consolidation for our
market, which was quite evident after reaching a
psychological figure of 9000 and most importantly ahead of
UP assembly election results. In fact, this has been the
smallest weekly range in last couple of years. Looking at the
decent profit taking around this hurdle, it appears that
traders are keenly awaiting outcome of this domestic event
to dictate the near term direction of the market. However,
Source: Company, Angel Research
one thing cannot be ignored that we witnessed good amount
It would be too early to take this call, but, we will not be
of buying interest around the 8900 mark.
surprised to see this up move getting extended towards 9400
Technically speaking (keeping the event aside), looking at
- 9600 (price extension of previous up move from recent low
the ‘Bullish Cup and Handle’ pattern and the placement of
of 7893.80) over the next few weeks. We would reiterate
‘RSI-Smoothened’ on weekly chart, we would continue with
that the trend is strong and hence, one should look to utilise
our optimistic stance on the market and expect the index to
intra-week dips to create fresh longs rather than getting
hit all time high soon. Whether this breakout would be
worried about the overbought condition of the market.
fuelled by the outcome from this event or not that we’ll get to
know in the forthcoming week. In case of an unfavourable
outcome, we are of the opinion that we may witness some
kneejerk reaction but it would be temporary in nature as
8826 - 8712 seems to be a sheet anchor in the near term.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | March 11, 2017
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
28,670
28,808
28,953
29,091
29,236
NIFTY
8,849
8,892
8,935
8,978
9,021
NIFTY BANK
20,367
20,548
20,712
20,892
21,057
ACC
1,361
1,381
1,402
1,422
1,444
ADANIPORTS
289
294
302
307
315
AMBUJACEM
220
225
227
232
234
ASIANPAINT
1,003
1,017
1,029
1,042
1,054
AUROPHARMA
632
642
660
670
688
AXISBANK
492
504
512
524
533
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,814
2,840
2,868
2,893
2,921
BANKBARODA
154
157
160
162
165
BHEL
152
155
160
163
168
BPCL
601
612
631
642
662
BHARTIARTL
352
359
363
369
373
INFRATEL
297
303
309
315
321
BOSCH
20,306
21,534
22,307
23,534
24,307
CIPLA
577
583
589
595
601
COALINDIA
307
312
320
324
332
DRREDDY
2,583
2,649
2,767
2,833
2,951
EICHERMOT
22,719
23,038
23,319
23,638
23,919
GAIL
351
365
383
396
414
GRASIM
974
986
1,008
1,020
1,041
HCLTECH
825
836
852
862
878
HDFCBANK
1,359
1,379
1,394
1,414
1,429
HDFC
1,343
1,358
1,374
1,389
1,404
HEROMOTOCO
3,223
3,267
3,299
3,344
3,376
HINDALCO
177
182
192
198
208
HINDUNILVR
853
864
874
885
894
ICICIBANK
263
267
273
277
283
IDEA
98
101
106
110
115
INDUSINDBK
1,288
1,312
1,328
1,351
1,367
INFY
982
1,002
1,019
1,039
1,056
ITC
258
261
264
266
269
KOTAKBANK
798
814
826
842
854
LT
1,452
1,472
1,485
1,504
1,517
LUPIN
1,414
1,431
1,457
1,473
1,499
M&M
1,272
1,288
1,313
1,328
1,354
MARUTI
5,713
5,834
5,921
6,043
6,130
NTPC
153
155
158
160
162
ONGC
183
188
192
196
201
POWERGRID
186
189
193
197
201
RELIANCE
1,224
1,253
1,290
1,319
1,356
SBIN
262
267
271
276
281
SUNPHARMA
664
674
682
692
700
TCS
2,420
2,481
2,515
2,576
2,610
TATAMTRDVR
273
276
281
285
289
TATAMOTORS
454
462
469
476
483
TATAPOWER
80
81
82
83
85
TATASTEEL
438
453
477
492
516
TECHM
453
464
486
497
519
ULTRACEMCO
3,707
3,780
3,834
3,907
3,961
WIPRO
474
480
490
497
506
YESBANK
1,420
1,451
1,468
1,498
1,515
ZEEL
484
499
511
526
538
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | March 11, 2017
FII’s buying streak in cash segment augurs well for the market
Nifty spot closed at 8934.55 this week, against a close of 8897.55 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 0.97 to 0.87
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 4.93%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 26.08%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty March month future closed with a premium of 24.15
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 25.25 points to its spot. April
GAIL
39562000
72.82
379.80
(26.36)
month future is trading with a premium of 50.85 points.
HINDZINC
10454400
47.89
285.20
(8.01)
PCR-OI has decreased from 0.97 to 0.87 levels. In call option,
OIL
2730530
33.74
336.30
0.45
decent open interest addition was seen in 9100 - 9300
strikes. While, in put option, except some OI build-up in 8900
BHARATFIN
16783000
32.92
832.90
2.52
strike; we didn’t witness any meaningful activity in other
VEDL
46602500
21.72
249.75
(7.09)
strikes. Highest open interest in current series is placed at
DRREDDY
3456400
19.88
2730.00
(5.34)
9000 call; while, it got shifted from 8800 to 8900 put option.
KSCL
3949500
19.68
511.40
3.18
Stock that added longs last week are JUSTDIAL, OFSS, KSCL,
AMARAJABAT
1890000
19.36
833.00
(2.45)
VOLTAS, and BHARATFIN. While, fresh shorts were visible in
HINDZINC, VEDL, DRREDDY, TATASTEEL and NMDC. Liquid
counters with higher CoC are POWERGRID, ASIANPAINT,
BANKBARODA, DRREDDY and INFRATEL. Stocks with negative
Weekly OI losers
CoC are COALINDIA, NMDC, HEROMOTOCO, PFC and
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
JUSTDIAL.
MRF
47985
(16.91)
52276.55
(0.05)
It was the lowest weekly trading range for Nifty after
NHPC
24921000
(15.24)
30.20
1.51
November
2014 and we witnessed good amount of OI
build-up in the same. FIIs have formed mixed positions in
SUNTV
6950000
(14.68)
738.40
1.61
index futures. However, the longs formed by FIIs in February
SRTRANSFIN
3024600
(14.56)
961.25
3.92
series are still intact in the system. At the same time, their
LICHSGFIN
7748400
(14.45)
566.80
1.80
buying streak in cash market segment bode well for bulls. At
current juncture, there are no reversal signs as per derivative
BEL
3100050
(13.95)
1570.55
4.45
data and thus, traders should not pre-empt any reversal in
TVSMOTOR
5600000
(12.64)
424.90
(0.84)
Nifty. Rather, they should use any decline towards 8800 -
8850 as a buying opportunity.
ICIL
3479000
(12.04)
175.50
7.08
Weekly change in OI
50,000
Call
Put
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
(10,000)
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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