Technical and Derivatives Review | November 10, 2017
Consolidation phase in market, focus on individual stocks
Sensex (33315) / Nifty (10322)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
The market continued its splendid run and now is showing some signs of exhaustion at higher levels. During the week, the Nifty saw some
profit booking after precisely entering the strong resistance zone of 10482 - 10500 which was the 161% (Golden Ratio) reciprocal
retracement level of the recent down move. This corrective move was very much on expected lines and in the process, corrected to end the
week tad above 10300 mark.
An impulsive up move in the index is usually followed by a corrective phase; wherein the correction either turns out to be a time-wise
correction or a price-wise correction. The index has completed an up move near its resistance zone of 10482-10500 and has then showed a
corrective phase during the week. In the coming week, we expect this consolidation/corrective phase in the index to continue wherein
stock specific momentum would provide better trading opportunities on both side of the trade. Hence, traders should stay cautious and
avoid taking aggressive bets on the index front.
As far as levels are concerned, the immediate support for the Nifty index is placed around 10260, which if breached could drag the index
upto 10180 (38.2% retracement level of the recent rally and the previous breakout level). On the flipside, the resistance is seen around
10380 followed by the recent high. We reiterate that traders should not take aggressive positions in the index and should rather keep
focusing on individual stocks with a proper exit strategy.
For Private Circulation Only
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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 10, 2017
FIIs forming bearish bets in F&O segment
Nifty spot closed at 10321.75 this week, against a close of 10452.50 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased to 1.33 from 1.55 levels
and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 2.17%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 0.65%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 12.25 points against a premium of 34.30 points to its spot. Next month future is
trading with a premium of 44.55 points.
PCR-OI has decreased from 1.55 to 1.33 on week on week basis; due to good amount of build-up in call options. We saw open interest
addition in 10300-10600 call options. On the flip side, hardly any strike of put options added relevant positions. However, decent
unwinding was witnessed in 10000 and 10400 put options. For November series, maximum open interest concentration is placed at 10500
followed by 10400 call option and for put option stands at 10200 followed by 10000 strike.
We started this week with index hitting fresh record high; however, we saw decent fall thereafter. Nifty corrected nearly 1.5% with
marginal change in open interest on WoW basis. But, FIIs did participate in recent fall by forming good amount of short positions in index
futures along with longs in index put options. As a result, their index futures ‘Long Short Ratio’ declined from 64% to 53% in a week.
Considering the above data points, we believe market may remain volatile in the coming week with negative bias. Thus, any bounce back
shall we an opportunity to buy puts.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
PAGEIND
37400
62.96
22143.45
7.47
LUPIN
12042800
50.39
837.65
(20.40)
PCJEWELLER
13366500
24.30
379.70
6.88
RELCAPITAL
12976500
12.69
492.85
(16.49)
KAJARIACER
1353600
14.95
712.80
5.73
GSFC
24363000
13.74
141.25
(11.66)
TATAELXSI
2019200
13.03
904.60
4.77
MGL
1006200
38.71
1133.10
(10.49)
NESTLEIND
159000
51.86
7807.35
4.56
SREINFRA
11640000
12.74
104.40
(10.31)
NBCC
5058000
12.85
275.70
4.47
ASHOKLEY
65247000
12.57
112.60
(9.56)
TCS
7119500
9.51
2711.40
3.36
CHENNPETRO
1876500
19.26
429.20
(9.50)
OFSS
82350
61.95
3669.45
2.72
ORIENTBANK
15708000
10.89
130.10
(8.57)
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
2
Technical and Derivatives Review | November 10, 2017
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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