September 09, 2017
Technical Picks | September 09, 2017
Markets awaiting some trigger, expect higher volatility soon
Sensex (31688) / Nifty (9935)
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
It was a week wherein the benchmark indices were
trapped in a narrow range; but on the other hand, lots of
individual stocks showed their outperformance by giving
sturdy moves. The Nifty vacillated in a narrow range of
127 points during the week and ended the week with a
minor loss of 0.40 percent over its previous week's close.
Amongst the sectoral indices, the Nifty Metal index
continued its uptrend and gained 3.12 percent during the
week, while the Nifty Pharma index witnessed some
selling pressure and ended the week with a loss of 2.55
percent.
Key Moving Averages:
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Source: Company, Angel Research
Sensex/Nifty are placed at 31193 / 9689 and 28659 /
8835 levels, respectively.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at 31706 / 9901 and 31120 /
9667 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
Yet another week ended with lethargic movement for the
index and in fact, the overall daily range has shrunk
further to merely 50 points, which is really a tiresome
thing for the traders preferring index specific trades.
Eventually, the week concluded with neutral bias by
defending the 9900 mark convincingly; keeping both
counterparties perplexed moving to the next week.
Looking at such price activity, it appears that markets are
awaiting some trigger to confirm the clear direction in the
Source: Company, Angel Research
near term. Technically speaking, the way index has
narrowed down its trading range, it’s a sign that the
Meanwhile, trades can keep focusing on individual stocks
volatility would increase soon; resulting into a probable
that are providing better trading opportunities. It would
breakout in either direction. If we have to guess any one
be a prudent strategy to stay light once index reaches
direction, we would certainly go with our recent cautious
higher end of the range and should ideally be prepared
stance on the market. One of the notable observations to
with a proper exit strategy.
support this view is the negative placement of ‘RSI-
Smoothened’ on weekly chart. Having said that one must
understand the fact, it’s very difficult to time such
predictions and hence, at present, one should keep
tracking key levels for the index i.e. 10000 and 9860.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | September 09, 2017
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
31,355
31,521
31,727
31,893
32,099
NIFTY
9,801
9,868
9,928
9,995
10,055
NIFTY BANK
24,019
24,195
24,327
24,503
24,635
ACC
1,726
1,759
1,791
1,824
1,856
ADANIPORTS
372
379
387
395
403
AMBUJACEM
269
276
281
288
294
ASIANPAINT
1,173
1,188
1,206
1,221
1,239
AUROPHARMA
698
719
746
766
793
AXISBANK
481
487
498
505
516
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,835
2,875
2,930
2,970
3,025
BANKBARODA
133
135
138
140
143
BPCL
489
501
524
536
558
BHARTIARTL
378
391
408
421
438
INFRATEL
360
365
373
378
386
BOSCHLTD
20,892
21,434
22,042
22,584
23,192
CIPLA
532
542
559
570
587
COALINDIA
231
243
251
263
271
DRREDDY
1,985
2,074
2,155
2,244
2,325
EICHERMOT
30,483
31,551
32,515
33,582
34,547
GAIL
369
374
381
387
394
HCLTECH
832
846
860
874
888
HDFCBANK
1,720
1,754
1,772
1,806
1,824
HDFC
1,722
1,751
1,771
1,799
1,819
HEROMOTOCO
3,849
3,903
3,993
4,047
4,137
HINDALCO
228
239
247
258
266
HINDUNILVR
1,178
1,193
1,207
1,222
1,237
IBULHSGFIN
1,178
1,245
1,284
1,351
1,390
ICICIBANK
284
288
294
298
304
IOC
414
422
433
441
452
INDUSINDBK
1,633
1,665
1,690
1,721
1,747
INFY
857
871
896
910
935
ITC
261
267
275
281
290
KOTAKBANK
960
984
997
1,021
1,035
LT
1,091
1,132
1,157
1,198
1,223
LUPIN
933
951
979
998
1,025
M&M
1,251
1,273
1,311
1,333
1,370
MARUTI
7,679
7,825
7,902
8,048
8,125
NTPC
162
165
168
171
174
ONGC
157
159
162
164
166
POWERGRID
208
211
215
217
222
RELIANCE
781
799
816
834
850
SBIN
266
269
274
277
283
SUNPHARMA
440
456
483
498
525
TCS
2,413
2,442
2,466
2,495
2,519
TATAMTRDVR
196
203
215
222
234
TATAMOTORS
360
367
382
389
404
TATAPOWER
75
76
78
79
81
TATASTEEL
631
643
654
666
676
TECHM
403
417
424
438
446
ULTRACEMCO
3,919
4,032
4,106
4,219
4,293
VEDANTA
299
314
324
340
349
WIPRO
293
297
299
303
305
YESBANK
1,700
1,744
1,782
1,826
1,864
ZEEL
511
516
521
525
531
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | September 09, 2017
Mixed cues from OI activity
Nifty spot closed at 9934.80 this week, against a close of 9974.40 last week. The Put-Call Ratio remains unchanged at 1.38 levels
and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 2.79%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 14.84%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 15.50
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 32.90 points to its spot. Next
EQUITAS
12841600
54.23
172.35
(0.92)
month future is trading with a premium of 47.05 points.
VGUARD
2559000
52.05
200.95
7.69
PCR-OI remains unchanged on W-o-W basis. In call option,
MUTHOOTFIN
2904000
51.72
492.10
2.72
9900-10200 strikes added decent amount of positions. On
the flip side, we saw huge open interest addition in 9700-
OIL
3319690
49.19
310.90
6.36
9900 put option and we believe stronger hands have gone
CADILAHC
3065600
48.99
503.65
(1.18)
long in these put strikes. Highest open interest in September
REPCOHOME
983500
48.68
666.75
3.25
series is placed at 10000 call and 9700 put option.
LICHSGFIN
8514000
39.18
660.90
(3.30)
Stocks that added longs last week are VGUARD, OIL,
NATIONALUM, RAMCOCEM and TITAN. While, fresh shorts
AMARAJABAT
1573200
35.93
800.15
(0.42)
were visible in LICHSGFIN, PNB, IDEA, ITC and M&M. Liquid
counters with higher CoC are SUZLON, MCX, GODREJIND,
GMRINFRA and KPIT. Stocks with negative CoC are NIITTECH,
Weekly OI losers
PTC, OIL, RELINFRA and RECLTD.
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Last week, the benchmark index (NIFTY) traded in a tight
GRASIM
2553000
(15.05)
1210.25
3.37
range; but added good amount of open interest. We believe
mixed positions were formed last week. As far as FIIs are
NESTLEIND
112300
(14.34)
7208.05
2.10
concerned, they continued their selling streak in cash
COALINDIA
25537400
(14.11)
255.10
6.34
market segment. While, in index futures segment they
INDIGO
1206600
(11.53)
1223.20
(2.74)
formed fresh shorts; resulting decline in their index futures
‘Long Short Ratio’ from 72% to 63%. While, they also
MOTHERSUMI
10308750
(9.72)
328.80
2.49
bought good amount of index put options last week. At
BAJAJ-AUTO
1356250
(9.66)
2924.50
(0.06)
present, 10000-10100 is a strong hurdle for Nifty. All the
IBREALEST
43890000
(8.62)
239.30
(3.43)
above evidences suggest limited upside left in the market.
Thus, traders are suggested to avoid forming longs in index
VEDL
40358500
(7.05)
330.35
4.66
and prefer stock specific approach.
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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