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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 08, 2019
For Private Circulation Only
Just a pause before the new high
Sensex (40324) / Nifty (11908)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
Trading for the week kick started with an upside gap owing to positive cues from the global peers. However, during the remaining part of
the week, we saw index struggling at higher levels and at the same time, has been reluctant to fall also. Intraday declines were getting
bought and the rallies were eventually witnessing some profit booking. As a result, the index got stuck in a small band of 150 – 180 points
with gyration on both sides. Due to tail end correction on Friday, the Nifty pared down major chunk of its weekly gains to conclude on a flat
note.
As we all know, the benchmark index SENSEX clocked fresh record highs last week and the Nifty is somehow lagging behind a bit. This week,
we saw several attempts to go beyond all time high of 12103.05. But these attempts turned unsuccessful and with last correction on Friday,
we are back to 11900 now. It appears that traders are a bit cautious whenever Nifty surpassed the 12000 mark during the day. Looking at
Friday’s close, we need to see how index behaves around 11843. If we see index sustaining below this key intraday support, we may see
this profit booking getting extended towards 11784 – 11714 levels. In case of these possible scenarios, we will not consider this as a trend
reversal; rather we construe this as a decent profit booking, which is essential for every robust rally. We continue to remain sanguine on
the market and expect Nifty to reach new milestones very soon.
Although, index did not do much this week, there were some sectoral themes that played out well and marquee names within these
sectors did well for themselves. The Metal and Realty are clearly amongst them and in the initial part of the week, few auto-ancillary names
too were on a roll. Similarly, we expect such stock specific moves to continue in the forthcoming week.
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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 08, 2019
For Private Circulation Only
Banking index open interest surged 77%
Nifty spot closed at 11908.15 this week, against a close of 11890.60 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.41 to 1.26.
The annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 5.70%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has increased by 8.90 %.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 37.20 points against a premium of 37.65 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 83.10 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, the build-up was scattered between 12200-12600 call and 11500-12000
put options. Maximum open interest for the monthly series now stands at 12000 call and 11600 put option.
We began the week on a cheerful note and saw extension of previous week’s rally beyond 12000. During the major part of week,
index traded in a range of 180 points. On Friday, we saw some strength in the initial part of the day but sharp selling in the second
half wiped-off all the weekly gains to eventually conclude the week almost flat. The banking index outperformed the benchmark
index and managed to close with the gains of 1.27%. We saw addition of fresh longs in both the indices in the week gone by and
decent amount of the longs formed in October series are also intact in the system. In addition, put writers have been consistently
shifting the base higher by writing ATM puts. Considering the overall positions in the system, we expect fresh record highs very
soon; hence, traders are advised using declines to add on fresh longs.
Long Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg (%)
IGL 5112250 79.79 418.50 6.48
MFSL 4828900 70.37 481.15 18.70
COLPAL 2647400 54.56 1576.75 3.09
INFRATEL 11556000 33.47 217.20 7.44
YESBANK 180490200 21.83 69.20 4.14
Weekly change in OI
Short Formation
Scrip
OI
Futures
OI
Chg (%)
Price
Price
Chg (%)
APOLLOTYRE 10425000 71.94 163.60 (13.14)
MGL 1855800 42.60 973.40 (3.91)
CHOLAFIN 4022500 40.28 297.35 (4.31)
LUPIN 8654800 33.58 720.00 (6.26)
TITAN 13049250 31.98 1161.10 (11.18)
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Technical and Derivatives Review | November 08, 2019
For Private Circulation Only
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600 Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries E-mail: technicalresearch-cso@angelbroking.com
For Derivatives Queries E-mail: derivatives.desk@angelbroking.com
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Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan Chief Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
Ruchit Jain Technical Analyst ruchit.jain@angelbroking.com
Rajesh Bhosale Technical Analyst rajesh.bhosle@angelbroking.com
Sneha Seth Derivatives Analyst sneha.seth@angelbroking.com