Technical and Derivatives Review | December 07, 2018
Eventful week ahead; outcome to determine the near-term trend
Sensex (35673) / Nifty (10694)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
While the expiry week ended on a promising note, the market participants were completely baffled with the market moves in the
week gone by. The earlier breakout zone of 10770-10800 was expected to act as a support on the pullback moves, but a plunge in
the global markets kept the market participants baffled and the index breached the range with a gap. A broad market sell-off
dragged the index below the 10600 mark during the week, although, a pullback move on the last trading session resulted in the
weekly closing around the 10700 mark.
All eyes are now on the outcome of the results of the five state elections which are slated to be announced on Tuesday, December
11. Along with this, the verdict of the BREXIT deal will be on the same day which could keep the global markets on the toe. Both
these events are likely to have a significant impact on our markets and hence, this could well be the week which would determine
the short to medium term trend for our markets. Due to the uncertainty of the outcome of the mentioned events, traders should
stay on the sidelines and be vigilant of the market moves. As far as levels are concerned, the near term support for Nifty is placed
around 10489, and a breach of this could result into a sharp correction. On the flipside, the recent high of 10890 - 10940 is the
resistance end which if breached, would lead this upmove towards, 11080 mark. Short term traders can take a directional bet only
on breach of the mentioned range with a proper exit strategy.
Amongst the sectoral indices, the Nifty bank index rebounded higher from its support zone in Friday’s session. In case the market
moves higher in the coming week, then this could be the outperforming index and traders should hence be watchful on stock from
this sector.
For Private Circulation Only
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Technical and Derivatives Review | December 07, 2018
No bearish bets in the banking index
Nifty spot closed at 10693.70 this week, against a close of 10876.75 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.70 to 1.47
and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 7.07%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 14.87%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 41.45 points against a premium of 23.90 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 86.50 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, some build-up was seen in 10800- 11200 call options. On the flip side,
10300 and 10600 put options added good amount of open interest. Maximum open interest for December series now stands at
11000 call and 10000 put options.
We started-off last week above 10900 mark but index couldn’t manage to sustain at these higher levels and we saw strong selling
pressure to bring index below 10600. Some respite on Friday lead to closing with a loss of 1.68%. During the week, we saw fresh shorts in
Nifty futures; whereas, some long unwinding took place in Banking index. On Friday’s recovery, we saw some fresh writing in 10600 put
options along with unwinding in OTM call options. As we have the state election poll result in the coming week, traders are advised
avoiding any king of aggressive directional positions and remain hedged for the time being.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
RECLTD
48516000
12.93
105.00
4.74
SUNPHARMA
61506500
58.49
413.05
(16.32)
TATAPOWER
44550000
7.84
79.70
4.66
DISHTV
64280000
54.16
33.65
(12.26)
PFC
51206400
24.60
89.45
4.44
ALBK
17212000
7.17
43.30
(10.81)
KOTAKBANK
12315200
7.88
1285.60
4.28
BHARATFORG
9990000
16.01
508.35
(10.25)
HINDUNILVR
9844800
19.12
1833.35
3.85
JETAIRWAYS
4854800
11.98
271.85
(10.10)
Weekly change in OI
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2
Technical and Derivatives Review | December 07, 2018
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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