November 7, 2015
Technical Picks |
All eyes on Bihar poll results - 7900 a crucial support for Nifty
Sensex (26265) / Nifty (7954)
Trading for the week began on a soft note on Monday due to
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
weak global cues. Subsequently, the Nifty corrected a tad below
the 8000 mark but then witnessed a v-shaped recovery in the
latter half and managed to trim a major portion of the day's
losses. The next couple of sessions opened higher, but failed to
sustain the gains. On Thursday, the Nifty broke the 8000 mark
and eventually concluded Friday's trading almost at the lowest
point of the week. Barring marginal gains in FMCG, Auto, Oil
& Gas and IT, all other sectoral indices concluded the week
well inside the negative territory. Amongst them, the Healthcare,
Source: Falcon
Capital Goods, Infra and Metal stocks were the major losers.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
The Nifty ended the week with a loss of 1.38% over the previous
week's closing.
Pattern formation:
The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at
26904 / 8151 and 26023 / 7850 levels, respectively.
The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at
26723 / 8089 and 26945 / 8162 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
Source: Falcon
It was an eventful week for the market with a lot of index
It is difficult to forecast whether the election results (to be
heavyweights posting their quarterly (2QFY2016) numbers. The
announced on Sunday, November 7, 2015) become a trigger
corporate numbers, more or less, had a mixed impact on the
for the market in the near term or turn out to be a non-event.
market. More importantly, the anticipated result of the Bihar
Technically speaking, there are key levels to be watched out for.
state level elections kept traders on their toes. In line with our
On the downside, if the Nifty sustains below the 7900 mark,
last week's expectation, the Nifty managed to find a support
then it may lead to an immediate correction towards
around the 8000 mark and attempted to move higher from
7800 - 7700 levels. On the flipside, in case of a favorable
the level during the initial part of the week. However, it seemed
outcome of the election event, the index may again bounce
that the bulls were slightly skeptical ahead of the election results
back to 8100 - 8180 levels.
and chose to stay out of the market. As a result, the Nifty sneaked
well below the 8000 mark on a closing basis.
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
1
INF010994639
NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635
Membership
numbers:
BSE
028/NSE:09946
November 7, 2015
Technical Picks |
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
25,792
26,029
26,427
26,663
27,061
NIFTY
7,809
7,882
7,999
8,072
8,189
BANKNIFTY
16,600
16,843
17,155
17,398
17,709
ACC
1,317
1,350
1,397
1,430
1,477
ADANIPORTS
268
277
290
298
311
AMBUJACEM
189
200
215
226
241
ASIANPAINT
772
787
812
826
852
AXISBANK
445
455
469
479
493
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,282
2,356
2,465
2,539
2,648
BANKBARODA
130
148
159
177
188
BHEL
174
183
193
202
212
BPCL
848
872
886
910
924
BHARTIARTL
300
320
337
356
373
BOSCH
18,226
18,796
19,843
20,413
21,460
CAIRN
144
148
152
156
161
CIPLA
628
643
666
681
704
COALINDIA
306
324
335
353
363
DRREDDY
3,111
3,371
3,875
4,135
4,639
GAIL
266
277
296
307
326
GRASIM
3,606
3,647
3,692
3,734
3,778
HCLTECH
862
874
882
893
901
HDFC
1,054
1,068
1,083
1,096
1,111
HDFCBANK
1,158
1,182
1,224
1,248
1,291
HEROMOTOCO
2,474
2,557
2,616
2,699
2,758
HINDALCO
77
79
82
84
86
HINDUNILVR
776
788
803
814
829
ICICIBANK
254
260
272
278
289
IDEA
135
137
139
142
144
INDUSINDBK
893
907
915
930
938
INFY
1,093
1,116
1,137
1,159
1,180
ITC
326
332
336
342
346
KOTAKBANK
622
639
665
682
707
LT
1,342
1,360
1,382
1,400
1,422
LUPIN
1,745
1,802
1,868
1,925
1,992
M&M
1,170
1,210
1,240
1,280
1,309
MARUTI
4,371
4,447
4,501
4,577
4,631
NTPC
125
130
135
140
144
ONGC
236
244
250
258
265
POWERGRID
124
128
131
134
138
PNB
123
128
132
137
140
RELIANCE
911
932
953
974
995
SBIN
228
236
240
248
252
SUNPHARMA
750
777
827
854
905
TCS
2,443
2,475
2,511
2,542
2,579
TATAMOTORS
365
380
397
412
429
TATAPOWER
65
66
68
69
71
TATASTEEL
196
208
227
240
259
TECHM
500
517
543
559
585
ULTRACEMCO
2,601
2,697
2,871
2,967
3,141
VEDL
85
88
95
98
105
WIPRO
559
565
572
578
585
YESBANK
726
742
766
782
806
ZEEL
381
390
404
413
427
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
2
INF010994639
NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635
Membership
numbers:
BSE
028/NSE:09946
November 7, 2015
Derivatives Review |
7800 support may be tested
Nifty spot closed at 7954.30 this week against a close of 8065.80 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 0.86 to 0.83
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 5.30%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 2.90%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has decreased from 0.86 to 0.83 levels mainly due to
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has increased from 16.40% to
OI addition in put options. In call options, 8000 and 8500
19.42%. Historical volatility (HV) of NIFTY is at 15.23% and
strikes added good amount of OI. While in put options, 7500
that for BANKNIFTY is trading at 23.21%. Liquid counters having
to 7900 strikes added decent buildup. Maximum buildup in
very high HV are DRREDDY, IOB, RECLTD, ASHOKLEY and
current series is seen in 8300 call & 7800 put options.
JUBLFOOD. Stocks where HV are on lower side are IDBI,
FEDERALBNK, BHARATFORG, WIPRO and HCLTECH.
Open Interest Analysis
Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total open interest of market has increased from
Nifty current month futures closed at a premium of 23.10 points
`1,79,446/- cr. to `2,16,396/- cr. Stock futures open interest
against a premium of 28.90 points to its spot. Next month
has increased from `58,369/- cr. to `60,051/- cr. Liquid
future is trading with premium of 67.75 points. Liquid counters
counters names which added significant positions last week
where CoC is high are SBIN, HDFCBANK, ASIANPAINT, ZEEL
are DRREDDY, TATASTEEL, SUNPHARMA, IDFC and HDFC. On
and PNB. Stocks with negative CoC are NMDC, ONGC,
the other hand unwinding was visible in counters like NTPC,
TATAMOTORS, COALINDIA and HEROMOTOCO.
COALINDIA, TATAMOTORS, KOTAKBANK and AMBUJACEM.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip : ITC
CMP : `338.95
Lot Size : 1600
Exercise Date (F & O) :
26th. Nov 2015
View: Range Bound
Strategy: Short Strangle
Expected Payoff
Buy/Sell
Qty
Scrip
Strike
Series
Option
Buy/Sell Rate
Closing Price
Expected
Price
Type
(Rs)
(Rs)
Profit/Loss
SELL
1600
ITC
350
NOV
CE
3.50
305
(`8.50)
SELL
1600
ITC
320
NOV
PE
3.00
317
`3.50
LBEP
-
`313.50/-
UBEP - `356.50/-
329
`6.50
341
`6.50
Max. Risk: Unlimited
Max. Profit: `10,400/-
If ITC continues to move above UBEP or below LBE
If ITC closes between two strike prices on expiry.
353
`3.50
365
(`8.50)
NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if ITC remains range bound and time value decays.
For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/
3
INF010994639
NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635
Membership
numbers:
BSE
028/NSE:09946
Weekly
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
Disclaimer
Angel Broking Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “Angel”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited,
Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with
CDSL and Portfolio Manager with SEBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. Angel Broking Private Limited is a
registered entity with SEBI for Research Analyst in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 vide registration number INH000000164.
Angel or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities
Market. Angel or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the
company covered by Analyst. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public
offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. Angel/analyst has not served as an officer, director
or employee of company covered by Analyst and has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock’s price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company’s
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources
believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for
general guidance only. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss
or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited
has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation
or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Pvt. Limited
endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other
reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed
or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Neither Angel Broking Pvt. Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or
in connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important ‘Stock Holding Disclosure’ report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the
latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Pvt. Limited and its affiliates may have
investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Ratings (Based on expected returns
Buy (> 15%)
Accumulate (5% to 15%)
Neutral (-5 to 5%)
over 12 months investment period):
Reduce (-5% to -15%)
Sell (< -15)