Technical and Derivatives Review | September 07, 2018
11640 - 11700 are the levels to watch out for
Sensex (38390 ) / Nifty (11589)
Source: Trading View
Future outlook
Mostly, in a strong up trend, if market has to undergo some kind of correction, we see that pain coming out in the first half of the
week and the latter part tries to make up for the damage. Similar thing was witnessed during the week, the index first took a
nosedive from Monday’s high and then remained under pressure; courtesy to relentless appreciation in US Dollar against the Indian
Rupee. Till last week, our markets could handle up to the 71 mark; but the moment this level crossed, it called for some kind of panic
in the traders’ fraternity. But, fortunately, the end was good for the week after USDINR cooling off a bit and hence, Nifty managed to
recoup some losses to close tad below the 11600 mark.
Technically speaking, we did witness a ‘Bullish Hammer’ pattern getting formed during the midst of the week and it has shown some
significance of it. But now, first half of the forthcoming week would be quite crucial in order to draw the immediate route map for
the market. The index will have to convincingly traverse the strong resistance zone of 11640 - 11700, if it has to gain some real
strength in the near term. It looks possible considering the broader market participation; but as a trader, one needs to be closely
tracking how index behaves around those important levels. On the lower side, 11484 followed by 11436 would now be seen as
immediate and crucial supports.
At this juncture, a strategy would be to focus on individual pockets that are providing better trading opportunities. As far as sectoral
watch is concerned, the ‘Metal’ pack was on a roll and considering the positive chart structure of ‘Nifty Metal’ index, we expect
further legs to unfold in this space. Apart from this, after some early damage, the midcap index has managed to recover fair bit of
ground in last couple of days and hence, do watch out for more action in this universe as well.
For Private Circulation Only
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Technical and Derivatives Review | September 07, 2018
Massive writing in index puts
Nifty spot closed at 11589.10 this week, against a close of 11680.50 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has decreased from 1.55 to 1.49
and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 6.58%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 13.18%.
Derivatives View
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 43.85 points against a premium of 54.80 points to its spot. Next month future
is trading with a premium of 77.70 points.
As far as Nifty options activities for the week are concerned, we saw fresh build-up in 11500-11800 call and 11200-11500 put
options. Maximum open interest for September series is placed at 11800 followed by 12000 call and 11500 followed by 11400 put
options.
We started-off the week on a positive note but sharp selling pressure was witnessed thereafter. On Wednesday, we saw decent
recovering from the support zone of 11380-11400 levels and fresh buying interest was seen for next two sessions to eventually
conclude the week above 11550. During the week, we hardly saw any relevant open interest change in the fall; whereas, good amount of
longs were formed in the upmove. In addition, longs formed in last series are also intact in the system. We also witnessed massive writing
in 11400-11600 put options along with unwinding in 11600-11700 call strikes for second consecutive session. Considering the above data
points, we expect continuation of recent upmove towards 11800; hence, traders are advised trading with positive bias.
Long Formation
Short Formation
OI
OI
Price
OI
OI
Pric
Scrip
Price
Scrip
Price
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%
MUTHOOTFIN
3300000
72.14
468.25
13.71
BALKRISIND
3144000
118.45
1177.45
(13.78)
GODFRYPHLP
655200
26.15
949.85
7.36
BEL
49094100
69.86
92.40
(19.27)
LUPIN
12745600
16.15
962.20
2.61
GODREJCP
2518400
35.69
1349.80
(7.66)
GRANULES
15525000
15.77
121.95
4.68
SRTRANSFIN
6216000
35.00
1220.25
(9.56)
TORNTPOWER
2193000
14.94
270.90
1.92
NESTLEIND
358100
31.90
10514.15
(9.78)
Weekly change in OI
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2
Technical and Derivatives Review | September 07, 2018
Technical and Derivatives Team:
Sameet Chavan
Chief Analyst - Technical & Derivatives
[email protected]
Ruchit Jain
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Rajesh Bhosale
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
Sneha Seth
Derivatives Analyst
[email protected]
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357600
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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