Technical Picks | January 7, 2017
Market gearing up for strong upward move
Sensex (26759) / Nifty (8244)
The Nifty started Monday's session on an optimistic note.
Exhibit 1: Nifty Weekly chart
However, we saw selling pressure around 8200-8220 and
as a result, the Nifty tested sub-8200 level on the same day.
In fact, the similar price action was repeated for the next
couple of sessions as the index opened higher and then
corrected slightly from morning’s high. However, on
Thursday, the bulls came back strongly to surpass the
resistance of
8200-8220 with an upside gap. This
momentum accelerated the day’s progress by retesting the
recent swing high of 8274.95. This was followed by a mildly
negative session concluding the week with a gain of 0.71
percent.
Key Moving Averages:
Source: Company, Angel Research
The ’89-day EMA’ and the ’89-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
26931
/
8295 and
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
26482 / 8097 levels, respectively.
The ’20-day EMA’ and the ‘20-week EMA’ for the
Sensex/Nifty are placed at
26470
/
8150 and
26967 / 8306 levels, respectively.
Future outlook
It’s been a week of consolidation for our market after seeing
a spectacular recovery in the previous week posting a new
ten-month low of 7893.80. However, things were quite clear
due to this remarkable rally that the Nifty has formed a base
around 7900 and is now poised for a breakout beyond
8274.95. Very much on our expected lines, the Nifty first
Source: Company, Angel Research
retested the mentioned level and then kissed the 8300 mark.
However, we saw some profit booking on Friday, which we
Thus, traders are advised to stay positive and use all
believe was quite evident after a straight 400 points upward
meaningful dips to initiate fresh long positions in the market.
move and importantly after testing the daily ’89 EMA’ placed
Going ahead, 8182-8133 would be seen as an important
around 8295.
and strong support level.
Now, with reference to our previous article, we would
interpret this corrective move as a breather and continue to
expect higher levels of 8400-8460 in the near term. Some
of the key evidences for such hypothesis are a rising
‘RSI-Smoothened’ on daily chart after confirming a ‘1-2-3’
pattern, positive crossover of ‘5 & 20 EMA’ combination,
and a ‘Double Bottom’ formation precisely at 50% Fibonacci
retracement level of the entire rally from
6825.80 to
8968.70.
For Private Circulation Only
1
Technical Picks | January 7, 2017
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty Constituents
SCRIPS
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
26,176
26,468
26,739
27,030
27,301
NIFTY
8,055
8,149
8,228
8,323
8,401
NIFTY BANK
17,646
17,955
18,140
18,449
18,635
ACC
1,292
1,313
1,336
1,357
1,381
ADANIPORTS
257
271
282
296
306
AMBUJACEM
204
208
213
218
222
ASIANPAINT
865
897
915
947
965
AUROPHARMA
639
666
688
715
737
AXISBANK
431
443
453
466
476
BAJAJ-AUTO
2,479
2,593
2,666
2,781
2,854
BANKBARODA
144
148
152
156
159
BHEL
117
122
125
130
133
BPCL
616
641
661
685
705
BHARTIARTL
285
303
316
333
347
INFRATEL
329
342
350
362
370
BOSCH
19,098
20,105
21,027
22,034
22,956
CIPLA
550
566
579
595
608
COALINDIA
290
298
305
313
319
DRREDDY
3,005
3,082
3,143
3,220
3,281
EICHERMOT
21,790
22,254
22,553
23,016
23,315
GAIL
426
434
442
451
459
GRASIM
832
844
862
874
892
HCLTECH
767
791
830
854
893
HDFCBANK
1,169
1,181
1,196
1,208
1,223
HDFC
1,156
1,189
1,231
1,264
1,305
HEROMOTOCO
2,893
2,980
3,050
3,137
3,206
HINDALCO
150
155
160
165
169
HINDUNILVR
783
809
842
867
900
ICICIBANK
243
250
256
264
269
IDEA
70
72
74
75
77
INDUSINDBK
1,054
1,099
1,127
1,172
1,200
INFY
940
956
984
1,001
1,029
ITC
233
238
243
248
254
KOTAKBANK
682
699
710
728
739
LT
1,327
1,359
1,381
1,413
1,436
LUPIN
1,454
1,483
1,505
1,535
1,557
M&M
1,141
1,181
1,210
1,250
1,279
MARUTI
5,124
5,370
5,514
5,759
5,903
NTPC
161
163
165
166
169
ONGC
184
193
200
209
216
POWERGRID
178
183
188
194
198
RELIANCE
1,046
1,061
1,079
1,093
1,111
SBIN
234
240
247
253
259
SUNPHARMA
616
629
639
651
662
TCS
2,177
2,229
2,309
2,362
2,442
TATAMTRDVR
286
302
314
330
342
TATAMOTORS
453
475
492
514
530
TATAPOWER
74
76
77
78
79
TATASTEEL
375
397
411
434
448
TECHM
440
455
481
496
522
ULTRACEMCO
3,225
3,274
3,336
3,385
3,448
WIPRO
454
462
474
482
494
YESBANK
1,089
1,168
1,210
1,289
1,331
ZEEL
438
450
463
475
488
Technical Research Team
For Private Circulation Only
2
Derivatives Review | January 7, 2017
Long-short ratio jumped due to fresh longs
Nifty spot closed at 8243.80 this week, against a close of 8185.80 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.05 to 1.11
levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive at 5.56%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 12.41%.
Derivatives View
Weekly OI gainers
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
Nifty current month future closed with a premium of 23.85
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
points against a premium of 1.60 points to its spot. Next
DIVISLAB
4942200
47.67
740.25
(5.75)
month future is trading with a premium of 49.95 points.
LICHSGFIN
9046400
46.33
526.65
(5.97)
PCR-OI has increased from 1.05 to 1.11 levels. In call option,
PCJEWELLER
1108500
41.84
407.05
8.27
8300-8400 and 8600 strikes were quite active, from which
DCBBANK
2407500
35.79
114.40
6.07
8400 strike added maximum positions. While in put options,
SUNTV
9006000
34.26
534.40
8.30
we saw significant build-up in 8200-8300 strikes. Highest OI
in January series has shifted from 8200 to 8400 call and of
CEATLTD
1627500
33.16
1199.95
3.07
put option remains intact at 8000 strike price.
NIITTECH
642000
32.10
423.80
(0.48)
Stock that added longs last week are NMDC, SUNTV,
MCLEODRUSS
5139000
28.03
141.90
1.00
PCJEWELLER, TVSMOTOR and INDIACEM. While, fresh shorts
were visible in LICHSGFIN, DIVISLAB, MINDTREE, TECHM and
HDFC. Liquid counters with higher CoC are IDFC,
Weekly OI losers
JSWENERGY, JSWSTEEL, NCC and IFCI. Stocks with negative
OI
OI
Price
Scrip
Price
CoC are UNIONBANK, NHPC, TVSMOTOR, BATAINDIA and
Futures
Chg (%)
Chg (%)
JUSTDIAL.
DRREDDY
1327800
(16.22)
3171.90
3.51
ENGINERSIN
14938000
(13.15)
153.60
1.39
January series started with high rollovers and we believe most
of the positions that got rolled are on long side. In the first
KSCL
2055000
(12.68)
417.30
1.63
week of January series, we witness fresh long formation in
BHEL
32030000
(12.49)
126.95
4.66
Index and stock Futures and the quantum of the positions
L&TFH
22824000
(12.40)
92.85
6.05
formed is also decent. Highest open interest in call option has
also shifted to 8400 strike price which is a positive indication.
RELINFRA
6406400
(11.05)
493.65
5.58
Thus, considering last week’s FIIs activity we can sense that
IDBI
25592000
(9.25)
71.40
2.59
market may continue it’s up move in near term. Thus traders
KPIT
3316000
(7.89)
135.10
0.26
are suggested to trade with a positive bias.
Weekly change in OI
For Private Circulation Only
3
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
Website: www.angelbroking.com
For Technical Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
For Derivatives Queries
E-mail: [email protected]
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