Technical and Derivatives Weekly Review - November 6, 2023

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Technical and Derivatives Review |November 06, 2023

Improved global cues help Nifty reclaim 19200

Sensex (64364) / Nifty (19231)

Source: Tradingview.com

Future Outlook

It was a week filled with notable events, and over the course of the week, prices experienced a fierce battle between bulls and

bears. Eventually, with improved global cues, prices closed at the higher end of the week’s range, putting an end to the recent series

of losses. Nifty ended the week with a 0.96% gain reclaiming the 19200 mark.

The week brought a sense of relief for the bulls, especially after the sharp sell-off seen during fag end of the October month. The

November series has started on a positive note, primarily driven by two significant factors: oversold market conditions and improved

global cues. An analysis of the weekly candle chart reveals that prices remained within the trading range of the previous big bearish

candle and have now re-entered the region of uncertainty, ranging from 19200 to 19250, which had witnessed a breakdown earlier.

On the shorter time frame of the hourly chart, a pattern of 'Higher Top Higher Bottom' has emerged, though it hasn't displayed

substantial bullish momentum. The future trajectory of the market largely hinges on the sustainability of the recent global market

strength. If this strength endures, prices may approach a key resistance level around 19350, which is a convergence point of

important moving averages (20EMA & 89EMA) and marks the 50% retracement of the recent decline. A breakthrough beyond this

point could indicate a shift in momentum favouring the bulls. On the other hand, if prices hesitate at higher levels, we might witness

a period of consolidation leading up to the festive week, with support shifting higher to the 19000 - 18900 range.

Traders are advised to closely monitor global developments and keep a close watch on the aforementioned levels to make well-

informed decisions. Furthermore, it's prudent to focus on specific stock opportunities, although caution is essential as recent market

movements have not displayed robust strength.

For Private Circulation Only

Technical and Derivatives Review |November 06, 2023

Sho

Form

ion

Slight advancement in LSR, amidst relief from sell-off

Nifty spot closed at 19230.60 this week, against a close of 19047.25 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has remained unchanged at 0.96

on a weekly basis. The annualized Cost of Carry is at 5.13%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 7.53%.

Derivatives View

Nifty current month’s future closed with a premium of 73 against a premium of 84.10 points to its spot in the previous week. Next

month’s future is trading at a premium of 176.30 points.

The Indian Equity market witnessed a smart recovery during the week amidst global stability, wherein the benchmark index Nifty50

surged nearly a percent on a WoW basis, reclaiming 19200 (spot levels). On the derivatives front, new longs have been witnessed in

key indices on the back of a decent rise in OI on a weekly time frame. On the options front, the highest OI concentration could be

seen at 19200 put strike, followed by decent piling around 19000 PE, suggesting an upliftment in the support base. While on the

higher end, the 19300-19400 call strike witnessed some writings, indicating intermediate resistance for Nifty in the upcoming week.

FIIs remained net sellers in equities on a net basis, though the quantum is narrowing down. While curtailing bearish bets in index

futures segments resulted in a slight advancement of the Long Short Ratio to 18% from 12% WoW. Considering the recent data, our

market seems slightly relieved, though one needs to maintain caution and track global developments. Also, a stock-centric approach

is advisable until sustainable strength returns to the market.

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

SBICARD 11272000 32.18 751.10 (5.71)

AUBANK 13935000 20.35 669.45 (2.95)

JINDALSTEL 29105000 19.94 598.45 (7.68)

INDIAMART 754500 17.47 2604.50 (6.04)

IDFC 91565000 14.89 114.25 (5.66)

Weekly change in OI

Long Formation

Scrip

Futures

Chg (%)

Price

Chg(%)

MCX 3158000 62.62 2526.85 12.20

LUPIN 7255600 42.17 1193.85 4.73

ABB 1708750 33.97 4191.65 3.87

IOC 132863250 31.24 96.20 10.13

DLF 38390550 20.40 597.60 10.97

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Technical and Derivatives Review |November 06, 2023

Sameet Chavan Head Research – Technical & Derivatives sameet.chavan@angelone.in

Sneha Seth Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives sneha.seth@angelone.in

Rajesh Bhosale Analyst – Technical rajesh.bhosle@angelone.in

Osho Krishan Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives osho.krishan@angelone.in

Hitesh Rathi Analyst – Technical & Derivatives hitesh.rathi@angelone.in

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Technical and Derivatives Review |November 06, 2023

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